Since I wrote my first post, some things have majorly changed (at the same time as some things have remarkably stayed the same).
The Hoosiers are likely to once again be the #1 team in the country come tomorrow afternoon after defeating then - #1 Michigan on the same night that #2 Kansas was knocked off by Oklahoma State. This comes after a deluge of different number 1s in the past month, going from Duke, to Louisville, back to Duke, and to Michigan and Kansas this past week (depending on which poll you use). The Hoosiers are now in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State all just one game back.
Indiana is currently 20-2, with the two losses coming from Butler and Wisconsin (who simply seems to have had IU's number since before Coach Crean even took over the reins), and 8-1 in conference. This Hoosier team is still the highest-scoring offense in the country, putting up almost 84 points a game nine games into the Big Ten season, while having the 6th highest field goal percentage at just over 50% and rating 16th in rebounds per game at 40.2. Four Hoosiers are averaging double-digits in scoring: Cody (16.3), Victor (14), Christian (12.9), and Jordy (11.1). Will is just outside of double-digits at 9.9 points a game after a bit of a shooting slump.
While some of my concerns for this team following the Butler loss have proven to be at least somewhat unfounded, one of them has sometimes remained concerning.
After being out-physicalled by Butler, this team has come out stronger. 40% of the rebounds the Hoosiers grab are of the offensive variety while they limit their opponents to under 30% offensive rebounds. At the same time, they are holding their opponents to 43% field goal shooting while maintaining a defensive free throw rate of 25% (meaning that opposing teams average one free throw attempt for every four field goal attempts) which stands at 12th in the nation. All of this means that the Hoosiers are playing more aggresively and physically without committing an excess of fouls.
While some may maintain that IU's perimeter defense is still lacking, I have seen that there is definitely a method to Coach Crean's madness. With the exceptions of Iowa, Penn State, and Purdue, the Big Ten is averaging over 8 made 3 pointers per game against the Hoosiers, which seems fairly high. On the other hand, those same teams needed an average of 23 attempts to get those 8 made 3-pointers, making them far less efficient than it would appear. For opponents, 3-pointers make up about 35% of the shots they take, which is a good bit above the national average. All of this points to the area I overlooked toward the beginning of the season: the 3-pointer is the lowest percentage shot. Coach Crean and the Hoosiers are willing to give up a bit on the perimeter if it means that they are doing a better job at protecting the paint, and I have to agree that this is the best way to go with the current line-up.
I claimed after the Butler game that the Hoosiers were settling too much on offense, that they were taking the mid-range jump shot instead of driving to the hoop. While there are still times where the quick jumper is ill-advisedly taken, for the most part, Indiana has become much more adept at attacking the rim. This helps to account for the astronomically high offensive free throw rate of 49% (meaning that the Hoosiers attempt one free throw for every two field goal attempts), which is good for 2nd in the country.
That leads me to my final post-Butler complaint: free throws. I know that it's hard to complain when your team is hitting 74% of their free throws, however, this shooting category has been streaky, and is somewhat inflated by going an absurd 41-45 (91%) in the last two games (Purdue and Michigan). On the other end of the spectrum, the Hoosiers shot an abysmal 21-37 (57%) at home against Penn State, 26-40 (65%) at home against Minnesota, and 22-34 (65%) at Penn State. While they did make over 20 points from the charity stripe in each of those games, and they do have the highest free throw percentage in the Big Ten, imagine what a difference very good free throw shooting can make. Against Michigan, IU made 12 of 12 free throws in the last 1:42 (six of them in the final 40 seconds) to hold Michigan back while they made 3 3-pointers and a dunk in that same time. Without those free throws, Michigan could have pretty easily clawed their way to a victory and the top spot in the Big Ten and the country.
Before I finish up, I want to give some updates on the individual players themselves.
Victor Oladipo - I don't even know where to start with this young man! He has remained the most consistent player on a pretty darn consistent team. Somehow, his energy, passion, and intensity have continued to grow, something I would not have thought possible, particularly before the Michigan game. He is lighting it up on both ends of the court, racking up the steals (2.5 per game, good for 13th in the country and top in the Big Ten) and deflections (top on the team) on the defensive end and the points and offensive rebounds (55, which is 5th in the Big Ten, and he's the only one in the top-15 who is shorter than 6'6") on the other side. I will admit here that as far as shooting goes, I was completely and utterly wrong about Victor (and incredibly glad about it). He has the 4th highest true shooting percentage (adds weight to made 3-pointers and includes free throws), and is in the top 30 of Kenpom's offensive rating. He is hitting 64% of his field goals, including 51% from 3-point land. This is a an almost unbelievable jump from last season when he hit just 47% of his shots and 21% of his threes. He is choosing his shots unbelievably well, and hitting the majority of them. I will say though, that the shot which has caused the most excitement from Hoosier fans was the one that he missed. The pure athleticism Victor displayed on that missed dunk was completely and utterly unbelievable!
Cody Zeller - As I thought would happen, Cody has, for the most part, stepped up as the season progressed. While he did have a couple of games where he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, his numbers have remained constant. One of Cody's most impressive stats is that he has a free throw rate of 77%, which means that for every 4 field goals he attempts he also attempts 3 free throws. That rate is good for 15th in the country and second in the Big Ten. He's attempting over 7 free throws a night on average, and he hits 74% of his attempts. Cody has also simply played at a much higher level, coming closer to the dominating force most people expected. The perfect example of this came late in the game against Michigan. With 1:50 left on the clock, Cody followed a missed shot which got tipped around and very physically cut through 2 Michigan players to save the ball and extend IU's possession long enough for Yogi to get fouled and make his free throws. After putting on a nice put-back dunk clinic for most of the night, this was the icing on the cake for Cody as he continues to improve each and every game. The one thing I'd like to see Cody do more frequently is pull that jump shot. He's pretty accurate when he does take it, but he doesn't take it very often. Adding that to his already incredible skill set will make it that much harder for opponents to game-plan and defend him.
Jordy Hulls - Jordy continues to be impressive in his shooting this season. He continues to hit about 50% of his 3-pointers even with defenders keying in on him, and he's hitting 2.5 threes per game. Again per Kenpom, Jordy has the number 7 offensive rating in the country, which also places him at the top of the Big Ten. While his assist-to-turnover ratio has decreased some (that was pretty much expected as the quality of opponents increased), he still has the lowest turnover rate of any Hoosier playing more than 20 minutes. Now, toward the beginning of the season I pretty much hounded Jordy because of his defense. But, after looking back at the season and the stats, Jordy is not playing as bad defense as people tend to suggest. Don't get me wrong, Jordy is no Victor Oladipo when it comes to defense. But the point is that he doesn't have to be. With strong-defending guards in Victor and Yogi and a strong center in Cody, as long as Jordy can consistently keep his man in front of him, he and the Hoosiers will do just fine. That is the beauty of a team sport.
Yogi Ferrell - Yogi has stepped up tremendously since the start of Big Ten Play. Both his field goal and three-point percentages are significantly higher in-conference (49% and 40% respectively) than out (30% and 25% respectively). Look at the games since the loss to Wisconsin and the numbers go even higher (60% field goal and 53% three-pointer). Yogi's free throw percentage is also staying high; he is 5th in the Big Ten, first among freshman, shooting 81%, just .7% behind the leader, teammate Christian Watford. Those free throws came in handy against Michigan, as he went 8-8 from the charity stripe. He is also still averaging an assist-to-turnover ratio of over 2-1, and has the second-most assists (99) of anybody in the conference and is first among Big Ten freshmen. On a very impressive note, Yogi is only a single assist away from being just the 4th Hoosier freshman to reach 100 assists (the other three are Verdell Jones III with 100, A.J. Guyton with 129, and Isiah Thomas with 159), putting him in very elite company with nine regular season games remaining. Yogi has proven to be a huge asset on the defensive end, locking down on Player of the Year front-runner Trey Burke for much of the game against Michigan, and while Burke scored 25 points, it took him an unusually inefficient 24 shots to get there.
Christian Watford - Christian has shown steady improvement for the most part this season, and has not dealt with the extreme inconsistency from last season. His field goal percentage remains low (it's actually lower than his 3-point percentage), but his free throw percentage has remained high, as mentioned in the discussion of Yogi. This last stat is key, as Christian gets to the free throw line more often (about 5 times per game) than anybody on the team except Cody. Christian has also been fairly dominant on the boards, averaging about one more per game than he did last season. While I would like to see Christian improve his shot selection, it's pretty hard to be picky when he's averaging almost 13 points and 7 rebounds per game.
Will Sheehey - Will has had a bit of an odd season, at least as far as offense is concerned. He's had six games this season where he has scored 6 points or fewer (including 2 consecutive goose eggs against Minnesota and Wisconsin), and in 7 out of the 9 conference games he has failed to reach double-digits, dropping his season average down to 9.9 points per game. His intensity and edge, on the other hand, have been fairly constant, especially at Mackey Arena. Will became Enemy #1 for the Boilermakers, trading taunts for taunts with the student section during the rout of Purdue. Even though his scoring has not always been there (nor does it always need to be present with such a balanced offensive attack), his presence is always felt through his grit and edge, and especially the chip that always appears to be on his shoulder.
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