The Game Ahead: Nebraska

The Hoosiers visit the Cornhuskers of Nebraska at 5:30pm on New Year’s Eve on the Big Ten Network.  This is the conference opener for both teams, and is the third straight season in which Indiana starts its Big Ten season on the road on Dec. 31^st.  The most recent of these was an 83-80 overtime loss at Illinois which saw the team turn it over 23 times and Yogi go off for a career-high 30 points.

The Teams:

Nebraska comes into Big Ten play with a record of 8-4, with losses to Rhode Island, Creighton, Incarnate Word, and Hawaii.  Their best win came in double overtime against Cincinnati by a score of 56-55.  That’s right, they scored 56 points in 50 minutes of play.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are averaging 86 points per game.

The best word for the Cornhusker offense so far this season would be anemic.  Per KenPom, Nebraska ranks 247^th in offensive efficiency, with a mediocre effective field goal percentage, which gives weight to made three-pointers.  They also turn the ball over at a high rate, giving it up on almost 22% of their possessions, which ranks 274^th.  The lone bright spot for the Huskers is their ability to get to the free throw line, at which they rank 33^rd.  Offensive rebounding and three-point shooting are also not particularly impressive, ranking 300^th and 262^nd respectively.

Nebraska’s defense, on the other hand, finds itself among the top in the country, ranked 17^th by KenPom.  They have been particularly good defending the three, holding teams to 29% from deep.  Those teams, however, do not feature any that light it up from deep, with an average ranking of 215 in the category.  The Huskers have also been good at forcing turnovers, with opponents coughing it up on almost 23% of their possessions.  Nebraska has also had moderate success in preventing teams from grabbing offensive rebounds, holding opponents to grabbing boards on 30% of their misses.

The Huskers have a fairly short rotation, consisting primarily of their five starters and two substitutes.  They are led by 6’6” junior guard Terran Petteway, who is averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds, and almost three assists per game.  He hits around 42% of his shots and 73% of his free throws.  The second leading scorer is 6’7” junior forward Shavon Shields, who puts up 17 points, seven rebounds, and two assists per game while hitting 49% of his shots and 88% of his free throws.  There’s a drop-off in points after these two, with the next leading scorers being 6’10” junior forward Walter Pitchford and 5’9” junior guard Benny Parker, who each score seven points per game.  Pitchford also contributes five rebounds and shoots 34% from the floor, and Parker adds two assists and two steals to go with shooting 44% from the floor and 47% from deep.  The final starter is 6’7” senior forward David Roberts, who chips in five points and six rebounds per game.  The only two other Huskers who have played in every game so far are 6’4” sophomore guard Tai Webster and 6’2” freshman guard Tarin Smith.  Webster averages five points and two rebounds while Smith adds four points and a rebound.

Where the Nebraska offense has faltered, the Indiana offense has thrived.  The Hoosiers come in at 10^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings.  This is highlighted by excellent shooting, particularly from the perimeter, where they are averaging over nine made threes per game.  This comes after facing several of the top perimeter-defending teams, including Pitt (ranked 21^st), Butler (ranked 23^rd), Louisville (ranked 29^th); the Hoosiers put up seven threes against Pitt (41%), eight against Butler (47%), and eight against Louisville (40%).  Indiana has also done a decent job of grabbing offensive rebounds and not turning the ball over (despite what they showed against Georgetown).

Also where the Husker defense has been strong, the Hoosier defense has struggled.  Indiana is ranked only 189^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings, which stems from an inability to force turnovers (ranked 321^st) or to stop opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds.  The Hoosiers have done a decent job at defending the perimeter, however that is likely exaggerated by the poor shooting abilities of their opponents.  The defensive area where Indiana has seen success is keeping opponents off the free throw line, where they rank 16^th in the country.

The Hoosiers have maintained a steady starting lineup of late, with a floor general in 6’0” junior guard Yogi Ferrell.  He has been the constant so far this season, averaging 17 points, four rebounds, and five assists in a team-high 32 minutes per game.  The newcomers in 6’4” James Blackmon Jr. and 6’3” Robert Johnson round out the starting trio of guards.  Blackmon Jr. averages 18 points and five rebounds per game while shooting 44% from deep, and Johnson contributes 9.5 points, four rebounds, and three assists.  The lone sophomore of the starters, 6’7” Troy Williams, has performed well since a poor outing against Louisville, even picking up a national player-of-the-week honor.  He’s scoring 13.6 points per game while leading the team with six rebounds per game to go along with two assists and a steal.  The final starter is 6’9” Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who has had an up-and-down season thus far, averaging eight points and five rebounds to go with almost two blocks per game.  The Hoosiers have five more players who are seeing around 10 minutes per game or more in Nick Zeisloft (the shooter who is also a fair distributer), Emmitt Holt (a semi-skilled young big man who is gaining his confidence), Collin Hartman (the guy who does a little bit of everything and actually holds the third best offensive rating in the country per KenPom), Max Hoetzel (who has shown an improved knowledge of court awareness), and Stan Robinson (who has shown flashes of the great driver he is even as he struggles with turnovers).  This gives the Hoosiers a bit more depth than the Huskers, something they can exploit if they can keep the pace quick.

The Matchups:

As with the Georgetown game, the matchups against Nebraska may not be as critical because the Hoosiers are likely to use a zone of some kind for a decent chunk of the game, as the Huskers are taller at most positions.  The only obvious pairing is Mosquera-Perea taking on Pitchford, as they are the two tallest.  Everywhere else, your guess is about as good as mine.  Here’s how I see it playing out while Indiana is in man-to-man:

Ferrell vs. Petteway.  With the exception of a game like Wisconsin (whose best player is the really tall Frank Kaminsky), Ferrell will always draw the assignment of the opponent’s best player, even if that player is six inches taller.  He is the best Hoosier defender, whether that be on the perimeter or in the post, and the success of the Indiana defense likely begins and ends with him.  Petteway is the heart of the Husker team and is responsible for almost 30% of the team’s scoring.  Even as he uses a large chunk of his team’s possessions, he assists at a high rate as well.  He also draws fouls and gets to the free throw line at a decent clip, where he hits 73% of his shots.  On the other end of the court, Petteway is a shot-blocking threat, something of which the Indiana drivers will need to be aware.

Johnson vs. Shields.  Shields is the other half of the Husker scoring duo, accounting for another 25% of the Nebraska offense (for those of you scoring at home, that’s almost 55% of the points coming from two guys).  It seems a little odd to put the 6’3” Johnson on the guy, who is about four inches taller, but he is IU’s second-best defender and he would be likely to guard a taller guy anyway (the only shorter option is Parker, who isn’t an offensive threat).  An interesting idea would be to switch Johnson and Williams throughout the game to try to disrupt Shields and put a bigger body on him from time to time.  But either way, whoever is guarding him has to be careful on drives because Shields has excelled at drawing fouls and getting to the line, where he hits north of 87% of his shots.  He hasn’t been a particular threat from deep so far this season at 28%, and this isn’t radically lower than his percentage last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to magically go off from deep.  This gives whoever is guarding him the opportunity to sag off just a little bit in anticipation of the drive.

Blackmon Jr. vs. Parker.  By Big Ten standards, Parker is very short at 5’9” (and people were calling Jordy Hulls short?), so it would make some sense to put Ferrell, the shortest Hoosier, on him.  Ferrell, however, is the most aggressive Hoosier defender, making his matchup with Petteway more important.  Johnson, the second shortest Indiana starter, is already otherwise occupied, meaning that Blackmon Jr. is left to handle the point guard.  Parker has the tendency to defer to his teammates in scoring, racking up assists instead.  But he also coughs the ball up quite a bit, even if he does get more than enough steals to balance it.  He is another Husker who has not taken many deep shots, even if his three-point percentage is relatively high (8-17 for 47%).

Williams vs. Rivers.  While I could see Williams and Johnson switch around a bit (meaning Johnson could see time against Rivers as well), I think Williams matches up better against Rivers.  While Williams is an explosive athlete, he has not shown much (other than an ability to block the occasional shot) on the defensive end, making a matchup with Shields more difficult and one with Rivers more likely.  Rivers uses very few possessions when on the floor, but hits a decent percentage when he decides to shoot.  He is also a good rebounder on both sides of the ball, making it critical for Williams (or anybody else), to get a body on him after shots go up.

Mosquera-Perea vs. Pitchford.  In a complete reversal of the Georgetown game, the Huskers do not really play a prototypical big man (especially not compared to the 350 pound Joshua Smith for the Hoyas).  Instead Mosquera-Perea will be tasked with guarding a guy who is 6’10” but who thinks and plays more like a guard.  I’m not even joking.  Pitchford has made more three-pointers (18) than he has two pointers (13), and has attempted far more from deep than in the paint (58 three-point attempts compared to 33 from closer).  He also does not get as many rebounds as you would expect a big man to get, averaging only five per game (although it has been a bit higher in the last few games).  This will be an interesting challenge for Mosquera-Perea a game after facing the biggest player he will likely see this season, and will be a chance to see if his footwork and speed have improved at all since last year.  If he can guard Pitchford out at the perimeter without giving up too many open looks in the paint, he’ll show true improvement.

Zeisloft vs. Webster.  In many of the big games so far this season, the key players off the bench have been of the forward/center variety, meaning that the key subs for Indiana have been of the Hartman/Holt variety.  That is not the case against Nebraska (not to say that guys like Hartman and Holt won’t be important because they will be), as the only two Husker non-starters to get into every game this year have been the two guards of Tai Webster and Tarin Smith.  This means that guys like Zeisloft and even Robinson become all the more important.  Zeisloft has done well in his role off the bench, not taking any more than the game gives him.  For Nebraska, Webster has done a decent job at getting to the free throw line (hitting 74%), but he does turn the ball over a lot and commits more fouls than I’m sure coach Tim Miles is comfortable with.  He has not been a threat from deep, a stark contrast to Zeisloft, who can very quickly light it up.

Final Thoughts:

A win in Lincoln (a place the Hoosiers have struggled) would be a great way to erase the sting of losing a winnable game against Georgetown.  Logic would say that the pressure is on the Indiana offense, as it is going up against stiff completion in the Nebraska defense.  However, the Hoosier offense has proven itself against several of the nation’s top defenses (that’s not to say that they won’t go cold; that hasn’t happened as a team yet).  I’d say it’s the Indiana defense which is under pressure, needing to somewhat dominate against an inferior opponent offense, on their home court.  That last part is particularly important, as the Hoosiers haven’t played a true road game yet (although they have two games at Madison Square Garden and one game at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse).  To be fair, this is probably the best time to get a couple of road games out of the way in the Big Ten, when students are on Christmas Break and home crowds are a bit less rowdy and excitable.

KenPom likes the Huskers by a single point (70-69) with a 48% chance of a Hoosier victory.  The Vegas line currently has the Hoosiers as 3.5-point underdogs, while the Sagrin model likes the Hoosiers by 2.5.  Once again, this is about as close to a wash as you can get, and it truly could go either way.  My gut tells me that the Hoosiers bounce back aggressively after the Georgetown loss, especially on the defensive end.  It says that the Hoosiers dominate the boards while maintaining their blistering offense.  It also says that Petteway and Shields get lots of points and that Pitchford maybe a bit above his average.  My gut tells me that Indiana walks out of Lincoln with a 76-65 victory to begin Big Ten play.  But who knows, that could be all of the holiday food talking.

That's the Game: Georgetown

The Hoosiers dropped a nail-biter to the Georgetown Hoyas, 91-87 in overtime.  Indiana was paced by Yogi Ferrell with 27 points, Troy Williams with 23 points, and James Blackmon Jr. with 22 points.  For those of you scoring at home, that’s 72 out of IU’s 87 points, also known as 83% of the scoring.  On the other end, D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera had a game-high 29 points, Aaron Bowen (who was averaging seven points per game) had 22 points, Joshua Smith had 14 (12 of them coming in the second half and overtime), and Jabril Trawick scored 12.

The Hoosiers held a 40-30 edge at the half, fueled by a combined 6-9 shooting from Ferrell and Blackmon Jr. to go with 21 rebounds and a 9-11 performance from the line.  They then went through an offensive dry spell to go along with a complete stop in forcing Hoya turnovers (they forced seven in the first half but only two in the second and another two in overtime) and continued trouble turning the ball over. But enter Ferrell, who had two clutch threes to tie the game, including one with eight seconds to go.  On the ensuing defensive possession, Hanner Mosquera-Perea blocked a layup attempt by LJ Peak and Collin Hartman grabbed the rebound to seal overtime.  The extra period was much the same as the second half, with Georgetown’s interior physicality causing problems for the Hoosiers as the Hoyas burst out to an early seven point lead and never looked back.

The Good:

• The Dominant Trio.  While they may not have been flawless, Ferrell, Williams, and Blackmon Jr. pretty much played the way stars are supposed to.  Ferrell may or may not have ice in his veins, hitting contested shots with seconds to go in the game.  To go with his 27 points, he had three rebounds, an assist, and a steal, and was perfect from the free throw line.  He was the floor general Indiana needs, even though he did have four turnovers.  He (and Blackmon Jr.) played a team-high 41 minutes, every one of which were needed for Indiana to stay in the game.

         Williams put in another brilliant performance overall, perhaps in an attempt to atone for a lackluster one the last time the Hoosiers played in Madison Square Garden against Louisville.  He ended with 23 points, eight rebounds, four assists, two steals, and 7-8 from the free throw line in a career high 33 minutes.  An example of his impressive play came in a key stretch in the last seven minutes of the second half, as Georgetown took its first lead since the beginning of the game.  With the Hoosiers down four, Williams hit a layup, a jumper, got an offensive rebound, hit a free throw, assisted Blackmon Jr. on a three, got a highlight-reel-worthy put-back of a Mosquera-Perea missed layup, got a steal (which he quickly passed off to Blackmon Jr., who missed the transition three), assisted Ferrell on a three, and got a layup to give the Hoosiers a three point lead with four minutes to play.  Again for those scoring at home, that’s a direct or indirect role in scoring 15 straight points in the span of about three minutes when Indiana desperately needed it.  This is the Troy Williams the Hoosiers will need come Big Ten play, and the last few games he has proved himself capable.

         Blackmon Jr. finally woke up after a rough shooting stretch that really started with the Louisville game.  Including that game, he had a total of three made deep shots in four games.  But he is a freshman and a slump was always going to happen sooner or later.  Against Georgetown, Blackmon Jr. was able to shoot his way out of the slump, hitting six of his 12 attempts.  He also pulled down seven rebounds, had an assist, two steals, and only one foul and one turnover.  These last two are particularly impressive for a freshman, and to put them into perspective, he is in the top 50 in the country (out of 2165 eligible players) in not committing fouls and is also in the top 200 in not turning the ball over.  Blackmon Jr. has been a key piece for the Hoosiers this season, so here’s to hoping that playing Louisville, Butler, and Georgetown at the end of the non-conference prepare him enough to face the Big Ten.

• Three-point Shooting.  This has been touched a bit in the previous section, but the Hoosiers shot well from deep, even if they didn’t shoot well from two-point range.  They hit 13-31 three-pointers, however 11 of those came from Ferrell and Blackmon Jr. with the remaining two coming from Johnson.  This is a team which, lacking much true inside presence, will live or die by its three-point shooting.  In regulation, the team lived by it, but in overtime they died by it, going 0-5 from deep.  Indiana is built around its ability to run its offense, and games like this really highlight that.

• Rebounding.  Surprisingly, the Hoosiers outrebounded the significantly taller Hoyas 40-35 (each with 12 on the offensive end).  And when I say that Georgetown was bigger, I’m not exaggerating, with the Hoosiers giving up inches and pounds at every single position, especially in the post.  I mean, at one point in the first half 6’7” 215 pound Collin Hartman was guarding 6’10” 350 pound center Joshua Smith.  Indiana’s ability to outrebound such a bigger, physical team will be key in Big Ten play, as the Hoosiers are shorter than every conference foe with the exception of Michigan State.

• Ball Movement (minus turnovers).  Set aside the 17 turnovers for the Hoosiers, we’ll get to those later.  The improvement this team has shown in moving the ball is incredible.  An example of this came as Ferrell passed to a cutting Hartman, who wrapped around the coming defender to dish to a cutting Williams for the slam.  It’s this willingness to make the extra pass, to find the open man which has made this team so much fun to watch and will be critical to the Hoosiers conference success.

• Grit/Maturity.  There is no statistic which will back me up or help me explain this, but Indiana showed so much more maturity than last year.  The Hoosiers of last year, they wouldn’t have made it into overtime, would have given up when Georgetown started to make its run.  This year’s version of the Hoosiers showed poise and continued to push on both ends of the court.  They didn’t let their heads hand down and they didn’t lose focus.  They just played the way they were supposed to, even if it is a young team.  With KenPom predicting 10 of the next 18 games being decided by five or fewer points, this toughness could be the difference between a tough win and a tough loss, particularly on the road in the Big Ten.

The Not-So-Good:

• Play of Mosquera-Perea.  Indiana needed Mosquera-Perea to play like a grown man going up against the grown man of Joshua Smith (a really big grown man at that).  Instead Indiana mostly got a rendition of the Invisible Man, with Mosquera-Perea contributing a total of two points in 29 minutes.  He did somehow get his hands on six boards after having a single one for much of the game, and he did have three blocks, including a key one on Georgetown’s final possession of regulation to send the game to overtime.  But when the Hoosiers needed him to be able to play significant minutes against Joshua Smith he just couldn’t do it, and even when he was in he didn’t show the polish he has in the last few games.  The plus side for Mosquera-Perea is that he won’t face anyone quite that massive through the rest of the regular season (the truly big men of the Big Ten are Amir Williams of OSU at 6’11” 250 pounds, Nnanna Egwu of Illinois at 6’11” 250 pounds, AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas of Purdue at 7’0” 261 pounds and 7’2” 297 pounds respectively, Frank Kaminsky of Wisconsin at 7’0” 242 pounds, Alex Olah of Northwestern at 7’0” 270 pounds, and Adam Woodbury of Iowa at 7’1” 245 pounds).  This is not to say that it gets easier for Mosquera-Perea, because it doesn’t (just look at Kaminsky and Haas in particular).  But at least he’s not going up against the Hulk again.

• The Bench (for the most part).  If Mosquera-Perea was the Invisible Man, I’m not even sure what that would make the Indiana bench, who accounted for two points, seven rebounds, six assists, three turnovers, a steal, and 0-6 shooting from the field in 54 combined minutes (compared to 171 combined minutes for the five starters).  Really, there were only two bright spots for the Hoosier bench, with freshman Max Hoetzel recording three rebounds against taller opponents and sophomore Hartman overall playing well.  An example of Collin Hartman doing Collin-Hartman things came in the first half when he became the de facto center (not his natural position!) guarding Joshua Smith.  In that first defensive possession for Hartman, he drew an offensive foul from Smith, his third of the half with seven minutes to go.  That sort of play shows just how far Hartman has come in about nine months since tearing his ACL, fearlessly matching up with a guy three inches and 135 pounds bigger than himself.  Aside from Hartman and to a lesser degree Hoetzel, the Indiana bench did nothing in this game, a worry going into Big Ten play.

• Post Defense (for the most part).  This goes along with the previous two points, but with no Mosquera-Perea and no bench, there was really nobody left to guard the post.  Georgetown scored 54 points in the paint, including 10 second-chance points.  Hoyas were able to drive and pass into the paint with little resistance, and the need at times to double and even triple-team Smith left players open elsewhere on the court.  There were a couple of times in the post when the double-teaming of Smith allowed a third Hoosier to come in and swipe the ball, but those instances were few and far between.

• Turnovers and Empty Possessions.  I don’t know if there’s something about Madison Square Garden in particular that causes the Hoosiers to turn it over more than usual, but the only two games where they have had turnover trouble have been played there.  It could also be something about the opponents being the two best teams the Hoosiers have faced, but they did not have the same trouble against Butler, SMU, or Pitt.  This is a young team, so turnovers are going to happen.  But unfortunately four of the miscues came from Ferrell and another three from Williams.  Both of these players have done a decent job on the season in holding onto the ball (although each has his fair share of face-palming errors), so this could be a bit of an aberration.  We’ll see once we get into conference play.

• The Officiating (Not making excuses, but would like to point some things out).  I try not to bring out “the refs sucked” argument much, but the second half seemed particularly rough for the Hoosiers.  I’m not talking about the missed call or two (because those tend to go both ways).  No, the difference in the ways fouls were called drastically changed what Indiana was able to do on the defensive end.  For example, there was an instance of Williams being shoved out of bounds on a layup attempt (even if it was clean above the belt, Smith shoved with his lower body) with no foul called, but on the other end Robinson was not even allowed to cover the cutter (with no noticeable extra contact) and had two consecutive fouls called.  There were also several times when Smith was allowed to camp out in the paint, sometimes even staying ten seconds in the lane.  This made him much more difficult to guard (which is why the three-second rule was created) because it was easier for him to get the ball near the rim.  Now again, I’m not saying that the refs changed the outcome of the game, and I’m not using this as an excuse for why the Hoosiers lost (that would be the turnovers, poor bench play, and lack of any interior presence).  But the officiating was no help to the Hoosiers in this game, although it should be a valuable experience going into Big Ten play.

Final Word:

Well, actually final words: disappointing and hopeful.  This was a winnable game for the Hoosiers, as evidenced by their 12-point lead early in the second half.  Indiana outshot and outrebounded the Hoyas, but turnovers and absence of any sort of interior strength negated that.  This win would have been the icing on the cake in the non-conference, as wins against SMU, Pitt, and Butler already give them a decent resume.  It also would have looked very good to the selection committee come March.  But this is also not a loss which will really hurt them, and could actually help them in the long run.  Indiana showed a physicality it had previously lacked and they outrebounded a bigger team.  They also shot well against the length, even as they did have trouble holding onto the ball.  With some improvement there and especially in the post, this team could find itself in the top five in the Big Ten and in the NCAA Tourney, which would be more than was expected of them going into the season.

**Noteworthy News**

With 27 points, Ferrell now has 1,047 in his career, moving him two spots on the Hoosier all-time list to 45^th.  He needs 26 to join Rick Calloway at 44^th.  Ferrell also has 334 assists in his career, keeping him at 15^th at IU, needing one to move into 14^th with Butch Carter and 21 to join Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas at 12^th.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers travel to Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers in the first game of the Big Ten schedule on New Year’s Eve at 5:30pm.  It will be shown on the Big Ten Network and of course will play on the IU Radio Network.  This being the first conference contest, I will do a preview post in the next few days.

The Game Ahead: Georgetown

The Indiana Hoosiers (10-2) take on the Georgetown Hoyas (7-3) on Saturday at noon on ESPN2. This us a neutral site game, being played at Madison Square Garden.  The last time these teams met was two years ago at the Barclay's Center in NYC, with the Hoosiers winning 82-72 in overtime.  Each team has one retutning starter from that game, Yogi Ferrell for the Hoosiers and Mikael Hopkins for the Hoyas.

The Teams:

The Hoyas have three losses on the season, all of which have come against teams which have been ranked this season (Wisconsin, Butler, and Kansas).  The only quality win for Georgetown came in a 66-65 overtime victory against then-18th-ranked Florida (who has since fallen out of the rankings).  They are averaging about 74 points per game this season.

The Georgetown offense has been solid this season, even as they play at a fairly slow pace.  They shoot the ball pretty well overall, with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%, bolstered by hitting 53% of their two-point shots.  They have also excelled at crashing the offensive glass, grabbing the rebound on 41% of their misses, good for ninth in the country.  They are not typically a deep-shooting team, averaging just over five made threes per game (compared to an average of nine made threes per game for the Hoosiers).  The big knock on the Hoya offense this season has been its propensity to turn the ball over, ranking 223rd (out of 351 teams) by coughing up the ball on 21% of their possessions.

In comparison, the Indiana defense has been about average this season, allowing teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 47%, with two-point percentage at 48%. The Hoosiers have had trouble getting defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to grab boards on 34% of their misses (ranked 259th out of 351).  Typically, Indiana has also struggled to force turnovers, with a defensive turnover rate of just 17%.

The Hoya defense so far this season has been solid as well, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 44%.  They have excelled at forcing teams to turn the ball over, with a defensive turnover rate of 22%.  They have struggled so far with defensive rebounding, allowing opponents to rebound on 33% of their misses  (242nd out of 351).  Georgetown has also been average in their perimeter defense, with opponents shooting greater than 30% from deep.  They also have had some issues with fouling and sending teams to the free throw line, with a defensive free throw rate of 41%, meaning opponents are shooting roughly two freebies for every five field goal attempts.

The Hoosier offense has been stellar this season, with an effective field goal percentage of 58% (good for 13th in the country) and three-point percentage of 42% (5th in the country).  They have also been very good at offensive rebounding (grabbing the board on 37% of their misses) and not turning the ball over (coughing it up on just under 17% of their possessions).  IU is also getting a higher percentage of their points from beyond the arc compared to the average Georgetown opponent, at the same time as they are less reliant than Georgetown opponents.

The Matchups:

I'll admit that for the most part the individual matchups do not mean too much, as the Hoosiers will likely spend a large portion of this game in some variation of a zone defense to account for being severely undersized.  That being said, the matchups of the point guards and centers will be particularly important.  I'll look at those more closely and include a brief discussion of the others.

Ferrell will be tasked with stopping Georgetown's leading scorer in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a 6'3" junior out of Indianapolis.  He's averaging 13 points and four assists per game while also sporting a low turnover rate.  He does a decent job of both drawing and not committing fouls, and he is absolutely deadly when he gets to the free throw line, hitting over 90% of them (39-42).  At the same time as he is accurate from the line, the same cannot be said of his perimeter shooting, where he's 12-44 (27%) on the season.  Ferrell is IU's best defender and is good at not fouling, making him ideal for guarding Smith-Rivera.

Hanner Mosquera-Perea will have the more difficult challenge of guarding senior Joshua Smith, who is 6'10" and a whopping 350 pounds (compared to Mosquera-Perea's 6'9", 225 pounds).  He's a very good offensive rebounder, but only ends up with 6.5 rebounds per game.  He also draws fouls well, as his size would suggest, but he's iffy at hitting the ensuing free throws (only 60%).  He's second on the team in scoring at almost 13 points per game, and hits a respectable 64% of his shots.  He also uses more possessions than any other Hoya, meaning that if the ball gets to him in the post he's likely going to go up with it.  Smith does commit a lot of fouls (which also goes with his size), which can contribute to him only staying on the court for an average of 22 minutes per game.  This gives a bit of hope for Mosquera-Perea, as he should be able to both outrun the bigger opponent and he (and the rest of the team) should be able to force him into foul trouble.  This will be majorly helpful, although Mosquera-Perea (and anyone else) will still be severly undersized.

The rest of the individual matchups are not quite as critical in this game, with zone defense taking the place of man-to-man.  Robert Johnson, Indiana's normal two-guard at 6'3", will likely see some time against freshman LJ Peak, who is more of a small forward at 6'5".  He is Georgetown's third leading scorer with 10 points per game.  He does a decent job of drawing fouls and doesn't foul much, and he hits 72% of his free throws and 32% of his threes.

James Blackmon Jr., the third guard for the Hoosiers will be matched up with senior guard Jabril Trawick, only giving up an inch of height.  Trawick isn't much of an offensive threat, scoring seven points per game.  He is, however, efficient when he does shoot, hitting 54% of his three-pointers (7-13) and 60% of his shots overall.  He also commits fouls but does not consistently draw many on opponents.  Being the weakest of the guard defenders, Blackmon Jr. is best suited to go against Trawick, even if common sense says he and Johnson should be reversed.

The final starting matchup comes down to Troy Williams versus 6'9" senior Hopkins.  He also isn't much of a threat on offense, averaging five points per game, hitting only 37% of his shots (low for a bigger guy).  He does rebound well, pulling down six per game, and is a solid shot-blocker at two per game.  On the other hand he turns the ball over more than any other Hoya and also commits a lot of fouls.

The key reserve for Georgetown is 6'8" Paul White, who pitches in eight points per game.  He's a decent shot blocker and defensive rebounder, and he doesn't turn the ball over much.  Whoever guards him will need to make sure to get out to him on the perimeter, as he's hit 10-19 threes he's taken (which actually averages out to only hitting one per game on two attempts).  He also hits free throws well at 80%, but doesn't find himself at the line often.  The guys most likely to draw this assignment off the Hoosier bench are Collin Hartman and Emmitt Holt, although the latter may have some difficulty following him put to the perimeter.  I should note here that Hartman has the fourth-highest offensive rating per KenPom, showing how strong he's been while he's in.

Final Thoughts:

This is a tall order for the Hoosiers, who are undersized at every position.  What this game is going to come down to is Indiana’s ability to play defense because the offense has been showing up consistently (including against the best defensive team in the country in Louisville).  If the normal IU defense shows up, it'll take an extraordinary shooting performance to stay in it.  But by doing a just a little better at keeping opponents out of the lane, or forcing turnovers, or preventing offensive rebounds, this could be a big game for the Hoosiers.  Indiana showed maturity and determination in beating Butler a week ago, and if the same type of team shows up the Hoosiers will succed even while being short.

KenPom likes the Hoyas by a score of 78-76 with a 44% chance of a Hoosier victory.  This is about as much of a wash as the algorithms will spit out.  I think Indiana comes into this fired up to finish the non-conference schedule strong and win, despite giving up too many offensive rebounds and not forcing many turnovers, with a score of 83-78.

Twas the Night before Christmas... Hoosier edition

This is a special twist on the traditional "Twas the Night before Christmas."  Hope you enjoy and get a chuckle out of it! Merry Christmas to everyone!

Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Hall

Not a creature was stirring, not even a ball

All the banners were hung in the rafters with care,

In hopes that a sixth soon would be there.

The Hoosiers were nestled all snug in their beds

While visions of title games danced in their heads

And Coach Crean with his clipboard and Coach Buck at his side

Had just settled in to seek recruits far and wide.

When out on the court there arose such a clatter,

They sprang to Cook Hall to see what was the matter.

Away to the window they flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutter, and threw up the sash.

The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow

Gave the luster of midday to the trophies below.

When what to their wondering eyes should appear

But an impromptu game, fourteen without fear.

With a little point guard so lively and quick,

He flew to the hoop with a move oh so slick.

More rapid than Boilers, his teammates they played.

And he whistled and shouted and called them by name:

Now Zeisloft! Now Williams!

Now Priller and Blackmon!

On Hoetzel! On Johnson!

On Hanner and Hartman!

To the top of the key!

Keep passing the ball!

Now pick away, pick away,

Pick away all!

Awaiting at baseline ready to fly

As the ball soars high, Troy leaps toward the sky.

So back on to defense the players they flew,

The center and forward, and all the guards, too.

And then, in a twinkling, the team did reset,

Hearing only the whisper of the ball through the net

As Coach drew in his head and was turning around,

Down the floor came Yogi in one mighty bound.

He was dressed all in crimson outlined in cream,

As was everyone else on the team.

The ball it was passed from one to another

They looked like a family, with faith in each other.

Their eyes how they twinkled, their smiles how they flashed

When they passed off the ball and to the basket they slashed.

Coach’s smile too grew from within

With visions of a team fighting to win.

The forgotten clipboard clenched tight in his hand

Carrying the plays he’d drawn up, all he had planned

He had brothers-in-law with claims to fame,

And he wanted so to join in their game.

Steely glint in his eyes belying the smile,

He looked at the schedule at an upcoming trial.

A wink of his eye and a twist of this head

Soon gave them to know they had nothing to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,

He looked at Coach Buckley and turned with a jerk.

Much to be done before teams come to blows,

Determined anew, more commitments to close.

Another recruit signed on to the team

Another young man in crimson and cream.

The team heard Coach exclaim as he turned out the light,

“Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good night!”

Special thanks go out to my English teacher dad, Dave Palmer, for helping me fine-tune this! You rock!

That's the Game: Butler

The Hoosiers pulled it off, beating the Butler Bulldogs 82-73 (blowing my prediction way out of the water).  They showed solid dominance to start the game, getting out to a 10-point lead before allowing Butler to tie the game going into half.  The second half started much the same as the first ended, with Butler building a lead on its momentum before IU dominated down the stretch to win the game.  The MVPs would have to go to Troy Williams and Yogi Ferrell in this one, with Best Supporting Actors going to Collin Hartman and Hanner Mosquera-Perea.

Half Number One:

Aside from a massive brain fart for the last about three minutes of the half, the word to describe the Hoosiers was aggressive.  They outrebounded the Bulldogs 25-18, including having an 11-4 edge on offensive boards.  Williams was flat out brilliant in the half, compiling 12 points, three boards, an assist, and a steal on 4-8 shooting (he should have had a block, but for some reason the refs couldn’t tell that it was obviously not a goaltend).  The one complaint on Williams is he is still choosing to take jumpers early in the shot clock when it’s not necessary.  Stan Robinson and Hartman were also aggressive off the bench with four points each.  Mosquera-Perea contributed solid minutes with six points, five rebounds, and three blocks.

The other Hoosiers (especially the starters), however, mostly struggled in the first half, with Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., and Rob Johnson combining for five points (Ferrell had 0).  Ferrell was limited in his minutes, as he had two fouls in the first five minutes.

On the other end of the court, Butler was able to do whatever it wanted in the paint, scoring their first 31 points (out of 38 in the half) either in the paint or at the free throw line.  On that note, Indiana just didn’t have an answer for Kellen Dunham (especially late), as he led all scorers with 18, including 9-9 from the line, shooting as many free throws on his own as the entire Indiana team did in the half.  Dunham aside, however, Indiana held its own on defense, not giving up offensive rebounds even as they did allow too many drives.

Now, about that brain fart.  The Hoosiers mostly dominated the Bulldogs for 17 minutes in the first half.  But it only took three minutes of really bad play to wipe that away.  The Hoosiers didn’t make one field goal during that stretch, hitting only a single free throw.  At the same time Dunham figured out how to play offense again, bringing Butler from down 10 to tied at the half.  This was where the calm, cool, collected veteran play of Ferrell would have been much appreciated, as a major problem was young guys trying to play too fast.

Half Number Two (Second Verse…Not Quite the Same as the First):

The second half started (with the exception of Hartman and Nick Zeisloft starting in place of Blackmon Jr. and Johnson) much the same as the first half ended, with Butler very much in control of things.  About six minutes into the half, the Bulldogs had pulled out to a six-point lead at 47-53 on a combo of putbacks and a three from Dunham (who was lost on the perimeter by Blackmon Jr., who tried to chase him around a screen).  For the Hoosiers up until that point in the half were fueled offensively by Williams with some assistance from Mosquera-Perea with a nice tip-in and freshman Max Hoetzel, who had a very nice-looking drive from the perimeter over a taller player.

Then the sleeping giant (and by that I mean the shortest player on the Indiana roster) woke up.  Ferrell, who had zero points in the first half while riding the pine with foul trouble, exploded.  He scored IU’s next 10 points, including two three-pointers, to tie the score at 57 all.  Throw in some creative putback scoring from Hartman, an impressive and-1 transition drive from Balckmon Jr., and some more Ferrell/Williams magic, and the Hoosiers turned a six-point deficit to a five-point lead in the span of about five game minutes.  Indiana would not trail for the remainder of the game.  When it was all said and done, Williams would lead the team with 22 points and 11 rebounds while Ferrell would throw in another 20 (remember, ZERO points at the half!), and Mosquera-Perea and Hartman would contribute eight each.

Now, this isn't to say that Indiana played any prettier in the second half than it did in the first.  The Bulldogs were still able to drive at will, with the big difference being that they were missing more of their bunnies.  Giving up offensive rebounds was an issue in the second half, with Butler grabbing six of them in the first eight minutes of the half, including a putback by former Hoosier Austin Etherington, his only points of the game.  Indiana was able to mostly contain Dunham after the first few minutes of the half, allowing him to score only five points in the second half, none of which came from the free throw line.  This was especially crucial in the final minutes of the game, which, interestingly enough, was exactly when Ferrell (who is at least six-inches shorter) started guarding him.  Ferrell is just ridiculously aggressive and physical on defense, and he stuck to Dunham like glue, making it difficult for Dunham to even get his hands on the ball.

The Good:

• The play of Williams and Ferrell.  I’ve already talked a lot about these two, so I’ll once again try to keep it brief.  Williams played the way many fans were expecting him to, explosive and right on the edge of being out of control.  That was the difference in the Williams against Butler and the Williams against Louisville: the latter was completely out of control.  He was able to rein it in slightly today while still playing athletically.  If this Troy Williams shows up on a daily basis, this Hoosiers team looks radically different, looks much more like the NCAA tournament team the Hoosier fans want them to be.  Ferrell, on the other hand, looked uncharacteristically bad in the first half, hampered by early foul trouble.  But the Hoosiers needed a leader in the second half and Ferrell has shown time and again that he is the leader of this team.  He figured out his offense at the same time as he was preventing Butler’s best player from finding his own.  That is exactly the Yogi Ferrell that this team needs.

• The play of Hartman and Mosquera-Perea.  Both of their efforts were overshadowed by the play of Williams and Ferrell, but both were critical to Indiana’s success.  Hartman is showing game after game that he is the guy who is willing and able to do all of the little things that turns a moderately talented player into a physical, never-back-down player.  Hartman is always going to have to work harder than others because he isn’t the most natural athlete (when compared to guys like Williams and Mosquera-Perea).  But through hard work and a nose for the ball, Hartman is able to get his hands on some offensive boards for putbacks while also maintaining solid defensive pressure.  His efforts got a bit of a nod in the second half, when he started in place of Blackmon Jr.  Mosquera-Perea also put together a very nice line with eight points, nine rebounds and four blocks in a team-high 30 minutes.  He was doing a better job at boxing out and a much better job of staying in position (as evidenced by the blocks).  Many of the putbacks Butler was able to get came when Mosquera-Perea contested the initial shot and nobody else came to help block out.  As long as this Mosquera-Perea is the one to show up on game days, this Hoosier team is going to be fine most nights.

• The turnovers (or lack thereof).  The Hoosiers turned the ball over 11 times, which, while it may seem a little high, was actually only 14% of their possessions.  This is especially impressive considering Butler came into the game forcing opponents to cough it up on around a quarter of the possessions.  To further put this rate into perspective, there are only five teams in the country who average fewer turnovers than that, including names like Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Illinois.  The Hoosiers are now averaging turnovers on 16.7% of their possessions, good for 33^rd in the country.  If you take out the anomaly of the Louisville game, that percentage drops to 15.7%, which would put them in the top 15 nationally.  Either way, this is a huge improvement for a team that had a turnover rate of 22% last season.

• Rebounding (overall).  The Hoosiers, for what seems like the first time of the season, was able to control the glass on both ends of the court.  They pulled down close to their season average with 34% of their misses while holding Butler to 25% of their own misses.  This Bulldog team was averaging more than 10% better than that coming into the game and the Hoosiers have been known to give up offensive rebounds.  This was a huge step in the right direction for Indiana, with Williams grabbing 11 rebounds, Mosquera-Perea with nine, and Blackmon Jr. with eight.  The Hoosiers were just overall the more aggressive team, something which hasn’t been the case all the time this season.

• Offensive ball movement.  Man, does this ball move fast.  Indiana managed to push the pace enough to reach 76 possessions, in some part due to the high level of ball movement.  It just never stops, even after opponents make shots, with one Hoosier or another running to inbound the ball.  They had 11 assists on 30 made shots, with Williams and Ferrell each having three.  This is the highlight of this year’s version of the Hoosiers, the ability to move the ball quickly and accurately, and the more they are able to do this, the more opposing defenses are going to struggle.

The Not-so-good (comparatively):

• The play of Blackmon Jr. and Johnson.  The two dynamic freshmen were probably due to have truly freshman performances, especially Blackmon Jr. who has been nothing short of amazing so far this season.  Outside of the context of how well they’ve played this season, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson did not play poorly for freshmen, with the former having eight boards and the latter having two steals.  But compared to the level at which these two have been playing this season, this was a rough performance.  I also expect this to be the anomaly, with the majority of their games being along the lines of double-digit point totals along with Blackmon Jr. pulling down rebounds and Johnson dishing out assists.

• Defense against the drive.  The Butler Bulldogs were able to drive wherever they wanted, whenever they wanted.  Hell, there were times it seemed like a car could drive through the lane, that’s how open it was.  It would be easy to blame this on the interior defense, as this area has been iffy for the Hoosiers this season.  But in reality, the fault lies equally with the perimeter defenders as with the post guys.  These drivers were able to beat their men off the dribble, putting more pressure on the big guys to step up without also sagging off of their own player to help out.  This may be a bit of an issue for the Hoosiers all season, which is not unusual for a young team.  Ferrell will remain an integral part of the defensive effort, likely drawing the assignment of the opponent’s best player (unless that player happens to be over say 6’8”), and part of the growing process for the younger guys will be to learn from him both in practice and in games.

• The big brain fart.  For the most part, this is a minor issue in the grand scheme of things.  Any team is going to have times when it’s run on, times where shots aren’t falling and the other team can’t seem to miss.  This is what happened late in the first half and early in the second half for the Hoosiers.  There was suddenly a lid on the basket and everything was just bouncing out.  Match that with Kellan Dunham taking the lid off of the Butler basket and it’s a recipe for a run.  What’s really important is how the team responds, and in this case both Ferrell and Williams decided to put the team on their backs and not allow them to lose.  As long as the Hoosiers can withstand these little brain farts (which are gonna happen to a young team) they’re going to be able to at least hang with most teams they play.

The Final Word:

Overall, the Hoosiers were far from pretty, but they did enough to beat a very good Butler team in a place (Bankers Life Fieldhouse) where the Bulldogs don’t lose.  In doing so, Indiana gained its second win over a top-25 team this season, the same as the rest of the Big Ten combined.  The offense continued to function, as it’s wont to do, and the defense struggled a bit, as it’s wont to do.  This likely isn’t going to change anytime soon, so Hoosier fans might as well get used to it.  But as ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan claimed after the game, this makes Indiana the most watchable team in the country.  The sooner you accept this, the sooner you can have fun watching IU’s offense pull off ridiculous feats without putting your head in your hands as soon as there’s a boneheaded play on defense.

This type of game was exactly what the Hoosiers needed as they approach the start of Big Ten play, a gritty, tough-it-out, physical game against a very good team.  Now we just have to wait to see where that puts them (I’m not even going to try to guess what conference play is going to look like, with the Big Ten collectively having losses to New Jersey Institute of Technology, Eastern Michigan, Saint Peter’s, St. Francis, Central Michigan, Incarnate Word, North Florida, Eastern Washington, and Texas Southern, who have an average KenPom rating of 167… after beating a Big Ten team).

**Noteworthy News**

With 20 points, Yogi Ferrell eclipsed the 1,000 point mark, becoming the 48^th Indiana Hoosier to do so and the seventh of the Tom Crean Era.  He has 1,003 points in his career, putting him in 48^th on the all-time scoring list.  He needs five to reach Jared Jeffries at 1,008 and another 22 to reach Butch Joyner at 1,030.

With three assists, Ferrell brings his career total to 329, putting him three assists away from Brian Evans in 15^th place and seven away from Butch Carter in 14^th.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers will eat their final helping of cupcake on the season, hosting the Privateers of New Orleans on Monday Dec. 22 at 7pm on BTNPlus (which requires a subscription).  The Privateers are 3-4 on the season, with two of the three wins coming against non-DI teams.  The only things they are doing remotely well so far are getting to the free throw line (a rate of 52% which is good for 11^th best in the country) and hitting those free throws (making 74% of their freebies).  They are actually shorter than Indiana, and have just as little by the way of experience.  As a team, New Orleans does not shoot the ball well overall, although they have had some success from deep, they turn the ball over on almost a quarter of their possessions, they are even worse than the Hoosiers at forcing turnovers on the defensive end, they struggle to prevent other teams from shooting well, and they send teams to the free throw line at a ridiculously high rate.  KenPom ranks the Privateers 304^th in the country and also predicts Indiana to win by a score of 89-67 with a 96% chance of a Hoosier victory.  Based on today’s game, I would be tempted to push the differential even higher, closer to 96-65, however this Indiana team has shown the annoying habit at times of playing down to the level of competition.  This is also the final remaining opportunity to really give some younger guys (read Emmitt Holt and Max Hoetzel) some key minutes.  So I’m going to put the score at 93-75 to compensate for that.  Here’s to hoping that the Hoosiers don’t look past the Privateers to Georgetown and the Big Ten schedule and thereby add New Orleans to the list of head-scratching Big Ten losses. 

The Game Ahead: Butler

The Hoosiers once again face the #23 Butler Bulldogs in the annual Crossroads Classic featuring the four premiere basketball programs in the state with Indiana, Butler, Purdue, and Notre Dame.  The game is at 2:30pm on FoxSports 1 and will be played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.  The last time these two squared off in the Classic saw Butler knock off then #1 Indiana by an overtime score of 88-86 on a last-second jumper by then-walk-on Alex Barlow.

The Teams:

The Butler Bulldogs are 8-2 on the season, with wins over Georgetown and UNC and losses to Oklahoma and Tennessee.  They have thrived so far this season on the defensive end (17^th in the country per KenPom) while playing mediocre offense (104^th in the country in the same ranking).  So far, they have excelled at forcing turnovers (on almost a quarter of opponents’ possessions) and guarding the perimeter (with opponents shooting only 26% from deep), with a high offensive free throw rate (getting to the line at a 44% rate) and low turnover rate (coughing it up on 18% of possessions) to go along with them.  It should be noted on the three-point defense that Butler has not faced a team ranked higher than 153^rd in three-point shooting, whereas the Hoosiers come in as the 11^th-best perimeter shooting team.

The Bulldogs, much like the Hoosiers, feature a lineup that is backcourt-heavy with some question marks in the paint.  They are paced by junior guard Kellan Dunham, who is scoring 16 points per game while hitting 45% of his shots from deep and 87% of the many free throws he’s able to earn by drawing fouls.  Rounding out the double-digit scorers are freshman sixth-man Kelan Martin and fellow guard Roosevelt Jones, each scoring almost 11 points each.  The final two starters, 6’7” sophomore Andrew Chrabascz and 6’9” senior Kameron Woods are each averaging around eight points per game.  I should also note that the Butler bench features former Hoosiers Austin Etherington, who is playing an average of 14 minutes per game while contributing four points.  The Bulldog bench is shorter than the Hoosiers’, with eight players playing at least 10 minutes per game.

The Hoosiers are also 8-2 on the season, with wins over SMU and Pitt and losses to Eastern Washington and Louisville.  Where the Bulldogs have lived off of their defensive success, the Hoosiers are living off of their offense, ranked ninth in the country per KenPom.  Also where Butler is shaky on the offensive end, Indiana has struggled so far defensively (ranked 192^nd).  The Hoosiers have been surviving on their shooting so far, hitting 42% of their deep shots as a team.  They have also significantly improved in holding onto the ball, turning it over on only 17% of their possessions (down from 22% last season), even after turning it over 19 times against Louisville.  Surprisingly, Indiana is rebounding almost 38% of its misses, good for 35^th in the country.  At the same time, however, they are allowing opponents to rebound 35% of misses (coming in at 274^th in the country).  The Hoosier defense has done a great job of keeping opponents off the free throw line (13^th best in the country).

The Hoosier starting lineup has remained constant after swapping Troy Williams for Nick Zeisloft.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. leads the team in scoring at 19 points per game, followed by senior Yogi Ferrell at 16, Williams at 12, and fellow freshman Rob Johnson at 10.  Blackmon Jr. also leads the team in rebounds with 5 per game (along with Williams) and is hitting 46% of his perimeter shots (and that’s after going 2-13 in his last two games).  Interestingly, he is also in the top five percent in the country at not committing fouls, even while averaging 30 minutes per game.  Ferrell is contributing over five assists per game, while Johnson is adding three of his own.  The final starter for the Hoosiers, 6’9” Hanner Mosquera-Perea, is averaging eight points and four rebounds per game after showing some improvement the last few games.  The Hoosiers have a slew of reserves, including Zeisloft, sophomore Collin Hartman, and freshman Emmitt Holt, who have provided significant contributions from the bench, and nine Hoosiers see the floor for at least 10 minutes with one more averaging nine and a half minutes.

The Matchups:

The Hoosiers have shown a bit of a propensity lately to spend more time in a 2-3 zone, but for the sake of comparison here’s to assuming that at least a fair bit of man-to-man will be played.

The Bulldogs’ most dangerous scorer is easily Dunham, who is listed as a guard while standing 6’6”.  This, paired with two other taller teammates, creates a bit of a matchup nightmare for the Hoosiers.  The best defender in Ferrell is probably too short at 6’0” (maybe) to guard Dunham full time, so the best bet will probably be a combination of Johnson with some help from the taller Williams.  Johnson has done a decent job at not fouling, which will be key against a guy like Dunham who is very good at drawing them.  Really, it’ll be Johnson’s job to stick to him like glue around the perimeter while Williams and even Mosquera-Perea help if he drives around Johnson.  It’s important to note that Dunham really likes to shoot from deep in the right corner, an area which Indiana has had difficulty guarding in their 2-3 zone.

The rest of the backcourt matchups could be interesting.  On the defensive end for Indiana, I would expect to see Ferrell go against Jones primarily while Blackmon Jr. covers Barlow, even though this is counterintuitive, as the former is 6’4” while the latter is only 5’11”.  The problem, however, comes in the physicality and skill of Jones.  Ferrell is easily the most physical defender of the Indiana starters and Blackmon Jr., well, his offensive power balances out his weaker defense (understandable for a freshman).  Barlow is much less of a threat than Jones, and Ferrell has proven his ability to guard players taller than himself, making this setup the best for the Hoosiers.  On the other end of the court, I would expect the Bulldogs to play the more typical matchup of Barlow on Ferrell and Jones on Blackmon Jr.  Barlow is a pest on defense, averaging more than two steals per game, making a matchup with Ferrell more advantageous.

The frontcourt matchups are likely not as interesting in this game, as both teams are guard-heavy.  In all honesty, these matchups may tip more toward the Hoosiers, something I wouldn’t have expected to say.  Woods for Butler is a solid rebounder, particularly on the defensive end, but his offense is average for a player of his size.  Mosquera-Perea for the Hoosiers has had difficulty on the boards this season, with two guards and a forward rebounding at least as well as he is.  At the same time, his offensive game has looked much more polished of late, showing moves that Hoosier fans had yet to see from him.  If he can make a decent effort at blocking out (even if that just means that he clears out the paint for teammates to get the board), this could be a turning-point time game for the Hoosier big man.  The final matchup leaves Williams guarding Chrabascz (whose name I have given up trying to pronounce!).  This, too, I would tip toward the Hoosier, as Chrabascz is particularly inefficient on offense and Williams is particularly explosive on offense.  This also allows Williams to sag off of his man a bit to help protect the paint, especially against a guy like Dunham, hopefully taking a bit of the pressure off of the perimeter defenders.

The sixth-man matchup could also be interesting, as Martin for the Bulldogs averages 11 points in only 16 minutes per game.  He is another physical player, and is more of a threat inside than he is from the perimeter (hitting 33% from deep).  Depending on who he comes in for and who is on the court for the Hoosiers, there are several options for guarding him.  Out of the starters, Williams would likely get the job, provided that Martin comes in for Chrabascz and not Woods.  Another guy who could find success guarding Martin would be Hartman off the bench, who is tall enough and physical enough to take him.

Final Thoughts:

This game will really be about which comes out stronger, the Hoosier offense or the Butler defense.  Now, this is the same Indiana team which put of 74 points against the Louisville defense, the top-ranked defense in the country who gave up an average of 49 points coming into that game.  And that was while turning it over 19 times.  If the Hoosiers can cut down on those while running their regular offense, the Butler defense could be in for a level of offense they have yet to see this season.  At the same time, the Indiana defense needs to step up more than it did against Louisville, who was mostly able to drive at will while rebounding over half of its misses.  If that IU defense shows up, Butler could have an offensive night the likes of which they haven’t seen except against Maine and Kennesaw State.

KenPom predicts the Bulldogs to win by a score of 71-69 with a 43% of the Hoosiers pulling off the upset.  I’m going to predict that the Indiana three-point shooting overcomes the Butler defense and that IU changes the recent trend of struggling in the Crossroads Classic by winning by a score of 73-70.

**Noteworthy News**

With 983 points in his career, Ferrell is only 17 points away from becoming the sixth Hoosier of the Tom Crean Era to reach the 1,000 point mark (joining Verdell Jones III, Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, and Cody Zeller).  He has also extended his IU-record of consecutive games with a made 3-pointer to 41 games (AJ Guyton previously had the record at 33 straight).

Ferrell also has 326 assists in his career, putting him in 16th place all-time at Indiana.  He needs six more to move into 15th with Brian Evans and another four to move into 14th place with Butch Carter.

That's the Game: Louisville

Sorry it's been so long without a post; Thanksgiving Break threw off my schedule, along with my upcoming finals and all of the papers and projects I had to finish by today.

The Hoosiers lost to the Louisville Cardinals 94-74, although the game was much closer than the score implies, with IU remaining in striking distance for about three quarters of the game.  With this being an away game and me watching it on TV with my computer in front of me instead of at Assembly Hall without a computer, I’m changing up my format a bit.  I’ll recap the first half, followed by the second half (weird, I know), followed by a rundown of the good and the not-so-good overall.  So to start things off…

Half Number One:

Well, if you had told me that the Hoosiers would turn the ball over 13 times and give up 14 offensive rebounds (with only four of their own) in the first half I would have thought they would be down by several factors of 10.  Instead, thanks to 70% shooting from deep, the Hoosiers trailed the Cardinals of Louisville by only five points with the high score of 41-46.

The Hoosiers started off strong, primarily thanks to an amazingly aggressive Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who took two charges and eight points in the half.  And while he only had two rebounds, he was doing a good job of getting his man out of the way enough for another Hoosier to swoop in for the board.  But all things must come to an end, and Mosquera-Perea picked up two fouls in the half, causing him to sit.  Now in games past this wasn’t necessarily the end of the world, with guys like Emmitt Holt and Collin Hartman picking up the slack.  This just simply didn’t happen, and while Mosquera-Perea was ridding the pine the Louisville big men took advantage to emphatically slam put-back after put-back.

As already mentioned, the Hoosiers turned it over 13 times in the half, with four of these coming from Stan Robinson off the bench in limited minutes.  No other Hoosier had more than two (Troy Williams, James Blackmon Jr., and Hartman).  Many of these turnovers came from two things: the Louisville press and poor decisions off of penetration (whether it was a picked pocket on the drive or a failed dish).  The two players who looked particularly out of control were Robinson and Williams, something which does not bode well for the Hoosiers.  They were loose with the ball (particularly Robinson while manning the point through the press) and seemed to have very poor shot selection, going a combined 2-6 in the half.  Between the large number of turnovers and giving up so many offensive rebounds, the Hoosiers had 18 fewer possessions than Louisville, and yet were somehow only down five at the half.

They did this with good shot selection and lights-out shooting, as evidenced by the ridiculous 70% from deep.  Everyone was hitting them, with Nick Zeisloft having two particularly timely threes and Max Hoetzel making one while being fouled.  The Hoosiers also, minus one stretch with Yogi Ferrell on the bench, broke the Cardinal press with relative ease.  That one bad stretch showed that this team really needed him (as also evidenced by the 35 minutes he played total).  It was especially difficult during times when both Robert Johnson and Ferrell were on the bench, as the point guard depth is actually not much better than the post depth.   Minus the one stretch, the Hoosier offense clicked better than could be expected, scoring almost as many points by the half as Louisville gives up in a game.

The defense, on the other hand, had some issues (many of them the same as previous games).  As the Hoosiers were undersized most of the night, they heavily relied on their 2-3 zone.  Now, it needs to be said that this zone has improved this season.  But it still leaves the vulnerability of giving up offensive rebounds, something the Hoosiers didn’t want to give up.  The Indiana version of the 2-3 zone had particular trouble with over-helping and being over-rotated, leaving shooters open on the perimeter.  At the same time, Louisville had way too many easy drives as a result of poor switching.  While all of these areas have seen improvement this season, they need to improve more for the Hoosiers to compete against the best in the country.

Half Number Two (aka Second Verse, Same as the First… defensively):

The second half played out similarly to the first, with the Hoosiers giving up way too many rebounds and struggling on defense.  They gave up another 12 offensive rebounds and continued to have no answer in the post on defense, especially when Mosquera-Perea picked up his third foul four minutes into the half.  Hartman seemed uncharacteristically out of position, however, it should be said that he has never been (or been asked to be) a center.  At 6’7”, he’s undersized, even if he does play bigger than he is.  In this game, he was too easily drawn away from the post, leaving it open for players to drive and dish to the big men.  The same could be said of Holt, for whom the game was just too fast for his current capabilities.  The one time the Mosquera-Perea-less post played semi-decently was when Holt, Hartman, and Williams played together, but even then they were still often out of position.

Once again, the Indiana 2-3 zone was over-helping and over-rotated, leaving shooters open all night.  While Louisville ended the game 8-23 from deep, the Hoosiers frequently lost guard Terry Rozier on the perimeter, allowing him to go 5-8 from deep on his own, while fellow guard Chris Jones was 2-4.  There was also an issue in guarding the high post, another hallmark of the zone.  The post players were unable to come up to guard them without leaving the deep post unguarded, and the guards were unable to leave the perimeter without risking giving up the three.

The offensive end was a bit more of a mixed bag, showing some flashes while also offering some face-palming mistakes.  To get the bad news out of the way, Williams and Robinson remained underwhelming (even if each had some positive plays).  Robinson ended the game with five turnovers in nine total minutes while also only going 1-3 from the floor and 0-1 from the free throw line.  Williams, who ended with three turnovers (including a palming call) and several very poor decision.  The moral of the story for Williams is that he is not currently a ball handler in any way, shape, or form and that he needs to go back to what he does best: finishing the play emphatically above the rim.

The Hoosiers had some further trouble in a few other offensive areas: turnovers on drives, getting to the free throw line (and hitting the free throws), and overall shooting in the second half.  There were only six second-half turnovers (compared to 13 in the first half), but many of these came off of failed/wild drive-and-kick attempts, with the ball either sailing out of bounds or into the waiting arms of a Louisville player.  After shooting lights-out in the first half, the water more than found its level, with the team going 1-8 from deep in the second half.  Shots began to look forced with about eight minutes left, corresponding with the Hoosiers beginning to appear fatigued.  This makes sense, with this being a young team and the game being at a very fast pace.  The Hoosiers, who have been very good getting to the line this season, struggled in this area, only shooting 14 free throws for a free throw rate of only 23%.  At the same time, they only hit eight of those shots, with only Williams hitting all of his and five different Hoosiers missing at least one.  All three of these areas helped put the nail in the coffin for an Indiana team that, as Coach Crean said, would have to play “out of its mind” in order to win.

A positive offensive note would have to be the play of Mosquera-Perea, who may have perhaps been possessed by Cody Zeller on that end of the court.  He stayed aggressive (even though it meant foul trouble) and flashed some post moves that had not been seen from him at this level.  He stayed composed and still played minutes even with three fouls early in the half and after picking up his fourth with over eight minutes to go.  He was really looking for his shots while still knowing when it was better to dish to a teammate and was 5-6 from the field with only a single turnover.

The Good:

• Hope.  I don’t know if I’ve ever felt this optimistic after a 20-point loss.  The Hoosiers showed that they can play with one of the best teams in the country, for about 32 minutes.  This is a sign of improvement for a team that lost to Eastern Washington earlier in the season (although not as bad as losing to Eastern Michigan and the New Jersey Institute of Technology – sorry Michigan fans).  For the first time since this season started, I’m not absolutely terrified of the Big Ten season, a very good thing for this team.

• Ball movement (when not turning it over).  The Hoosiers ended with 14 assists on 29 made field goals, which is better than their assist-to-turnover ratio would indicate.  Even though 10 of those assists came in the first half, it’s pretty difficult to rack up assists when the shots aren’t falling.  This ball movement is critical for this team which relies so heavily on its offensive ability, and as long as the turnovers can be cut down to where they’ve normally been this offense will continue to run well.

• Play of Mosquera-Perea and Ferrell.  I’ve talked a lot about this so far, so I’ll try to keep it brief.  Mosquera-Perea was channeling the big men who have come before him and showed offensive moves rivaling those players.  He also picked it up on the defensive end, even if he was outmatched by the Louisville bigs.  If he can continue to play at this level, the Hoosiers will have a better shot come Big Ten season.  Ferrell sort of quietly put together a very good stat line of 13 points, seven rebounds, five assists, a steal, and two turnovers in a team-high 35 minutes on the floor.  It’s never a good thing when your 6’0” (ish) point guard is your leading rebounder, but Ferrell’s seven rebounds is an encouraging sign for the play of the guards.  When Ferrell was in there was a definite change in the demeanor of the team, with even the youngest players playing like veterans.  He was not given many breaks, and the times he did grab a breather on the bench the Hoosier offense floundered.  The coming of the talented guard combo of Blackmon Jr. and Johnson may have taken some of the scoring burden off of Ferrell’s shoulders but make no mistake, this is still his team and he is the undisputed leader.

• Play of Johnson and Zeisloft.  Johnson and Zeisloft both also somewhat quietly played well.  Johnson, who only had five points, also had a few boards and a couple assists, but also did a decent job of handling the ball, helping to break the Louisville press with relative ease.  He does not always have to put up flashy numbers to have a good game and will only continue to improve as the season goes on.  Zeisloft, who for some reason really didn’t play much the second half, had nine points in 15 minutes on the court, going 3-5 from deep.  And each of his threes were timely, with his first pulling the Hoosiers within two about half-way through the first half.  His second and third threes came in an amazing sequence for the transfer redshirt junior where, with the Hoosiers down 12, he grabbed a defensive rebound, hit a three on the ensuing possession to cut the deficit to nine, hit another three on the next possession to cut the lead to six, and ended it with a steal on the next defensive possession which led to a transition layup for Blackmon Jr. to get Indiana within four with about a minute to play.  For those scoring at home, that means Zeisloft had a role in eight consecutive points to get the Hoosiers back within striking distance to go into the half.  He has really settled into his role and no longer forces plays as often as in the first few games, a good sign for a Hoosier team who needs the sort of veteran leadership to counteract its youth.

The Not-so-good:

• Defense (interior, perimeter, and everywhere in between).  Any time the opponent puts up 94 points, you have to be concerned about the defense, even if it is against one of the best teams in the country.  The Hoosiers had trouble all over the court, not stopping Louisville from driving for the layup (or dish) or getting the offensive rebound, not stopping the Cardinals from taking the deep shots from the perimeter, and not stopping them from thriving in the high post.  The offensive rebounds were particularly concerning, with Louisville rebounding on 52% of its misses.  This has been a theme for Indiana, but is one which can typically be overcome if they can not turn the ball over and can hit a high percentage of shots.  Or in the case of the first half they can both get outrebounded horribly and turn the ball over a lot as long as they hit at least 70% of their shots from deep.

• Turnovers.  The second half was much better than the first, but the Hoosiers still coughed the ball up 19 times in the game.  The more positive thing for IU is that the Cardinals were only able to score 19 points off those turnovers, whereas Indiana had 15 points off of Louisville’s 12 turnovers.  Many of the turnovers came from two areas: against the press and on failed drive-and-kicks.  Another positive?  Not many teams Indiana will face press with the same ability as Louisville.  But the moral of the story is you can’t give up the ball on a quarter of your possessions (especially not when also giving up a 52% offensive rebound rate) and hope to win.

• Fatigue.  This was a ridiculously fast-paced game with 77 possessions, second only to the Mississippi Valley State game which had 81 possessions.  About 32 minutes in, the Hoosiers were just about ready to collapse, leaving all of their shots (including free throws) short and having trouble getting back on defense.  This, however, should not concern Indiana fans too much, at least not yet.  Louisville is a very fast team which is built to play that fast.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are a young team that likes to play at their own speed (which is also pretty fast) but who struggle if the pace is dictated by the other team (especially if it means speeding up).  This will improve as Indiana moves through the season and gains experience, and may actually be beneficial to young guys before they go into Big Ten play.

• The play of Williams and Robinson.  I’ve touched on this already and really am going to keep it brief.  Both of these players showed flashes of inspiration, but played way too wild to do their team any good and especially seemed disturbed by Louisville’s pushed pace.  I’m hoping this is an anomaly and Williams will remember that he is a fantastic finisher, not a ball handler, and that Robinson will regain the confidence he needs to play at his own speed rather than the speed of his opponent.  Both of these things are possible if they’re willing to work, and I believe they both are.

The Final Word:

I am surprisingly optimistic after a 20-point loss (even though the game was closer than that most of the time).  Really everything’s been said already.  You can’t turn it over and give up offensive rebounds as often as the Hoosiers did and expect to beat a top-tier team.  They overall played well and will hopefully use this experience in preparation to face Butler (Dec. 20) and Georgetown (Dec 27) before diving into the Big Ten schedule by travelling to both Nebraska (Dec. 31) and Michigan State (Jan. 5) before playing host to Ohio State (Jan. 10).

** Noteworthy News**

Yogi Ferrell, with his five assists, moved up to 323 assists in his career, which is a tie with Joe Hillman for 17^th all-time at IU.  He needs two to join Jim Wisman at 16^th (325) and eight more to join Brian Evans at 15^th (332).  The record is 545 by Michael Lewis from 1997-2000, which Ferrell could break next year if his assists stay roughly where they are (he averaged 136 the last two seasons with 147 and 125. Maintaining that average over four years puts him at 544. As a note, he’s on pace for about 180 assists this season).

Ferrell also has 975 points in his career, needing only 25 to be the sixth player in the Crean era to surpass the 1,000 point mark.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers briefly return to their cupcake-eating ways on Saturday, Dec. 13^th when they host the Antelopes (or just Lopes) from Grand Canyon University.  They start a fairly short lineup, with four players 6’3” and one who is 6’8”.  They do have a few taller guys who get into the rotation (two who are 6’9” and two who are 6’11”), but the two tallest guys only play 10-12 percent of the team’s minutes and neither has played in every game.  The Lopes do a decent job of limiting opponent three-point percentage and not much else.  They are 4-5, with the wins all coming out of the 300-range of the KenPom rankings (and one from outside Division I) while the losses are a mixed bag, ranging from 284^th-ranked Idaho St. to 1^st-ranked Kentucky (by 40 points).  They have three players averaging double-digit points, led by senior guard Royce Woolridge at 12.3 points per game, followed by senior guard Jerome Garrison and junior guard Ryan Majerle with 11.7 and 10 points respectively.  Pomeroy predicts the Hoosiers to win 82-64 with a 95% chance of victory, and if the Hoosiers play with the aggression they did against Louisville it could be even worse than that.  I’m going to say it’ll be closer to 90-66 for a final score.  Of course, they could always pull a Michigan, which none of us want.