The Game Ahead: Minnesota

I don't know about you, but a week is a very long time to wait between Indiana basketball games.  At least in February that is.  Tuesday's game will be the first match-up for IU since winning on the road at Michigan State, and this game will once again be on the road, this time at Minnesota's "The Barn."  It can be seen on ESPN at 7pm, with Mike Tirico, Sam Ponder, and Dan Dakich on the call.  The Hoosiers won the first game against Minnesota 88-81.

The Teams:

Many Hoosier fans will remember that previous game as one which the Hoosiers almost blew.  Indiana had a 23 point lead at the half and played one of the most spectacular 20 minutes of basketball seen at that point in the season.  All of IU's starters were in double figures (Christian Watford had 15, Cody Zeller had 18, Jordan Hulls had 19, Victor Oladipo had 20, and Yogi Ferrell had 13), but the bench only contributed 3 points, all from the free throw line.  Speaking of free throws, the Hoosiers shot a ridiculous 40 of them off of 25 Gopher fouls.  Part of what allowed Minnesota back into the game, however, was the fact that they only hit 26 of them (65%).  Fans will also remember this as the game that Victor fouled out after being called for three fouls on 3-point shooters (notice I said he was called for three fouls, not that he committed three fouls).  Minnesota also had a couple players foul out, Rodney Williams and Joe Coleman. IU did manage to turn the ball over 15 times in this game, but they balanced this out by forcing Minnesota into 17 turnovers of their own.

Minnesota is coming into this game just 6-8 in conference play, but they have tended to find a way to win at home, where they are 5-2.  They average 69 points on 44.5% shooting, along with 39 rebounds and 15 assists per game.  On the season, the Gophers get to the free throw line at a solid rate of 42.7% (about 3 times for every 7 field goal attempts).  On the other hand, they do turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions, worst in the Big Ten.  The stat that stands out most for the Gophers is that they lead the country in their ability to rebound the ball on the offensive end, grabbing 15 per game.  On the defensive side, Minnesota allows teams to shoot 37% from three-point range.

The Hoosiers are currently 12-2 in conference play, and are 6-1 on the road (including a monster victory at Michigan State).  They average 83 points (2nd in the country) on 50% shooting (4th in the country), and they also grab 39 rebounds and dish out 15 assists per game.    Indiana is even better at getting to the free throw line than the Gophers, having the third-best rate in the country at 48% (almost one free throw for every two field goal attempts).  The Hoosiers also tend to turn the ball over quite frequently, but that trend has changed of late, with IU turning the ball over 10 times or fewer in three of the last four games.  While they aren't quite as good as the Gophers at grabbing offensive rebounds, the Hoosiers are 6th in the country while getting about 12 per game.  What could be key for the Hoosiers is that at the same time as Minnesota has trouble guarding the perimeter, Indiana is the best team in the country at making deep shots, hitting 43%.

The Match-ups:

There are several interesting match-ups in this game, highlighted by the likely pairing of Victor Oladipo on Andre Hollins, although Yogi Ferrell will also be spending his fair share of time guarding Hollins.  Andre Hollins is 6'1" and is pacing the Gophers at 13.6 points per game to go with three assists.  He hits 41% of his field goals, including 39% of his deep shots.  Hollins draws fouls pretty well and hits any free throws he attempts at a high rate of almost 80%.  The interesting thing with this match-up is that the Hoosiers can choose to go tall against him with Victor, who has about four inches on him, or go almost even with Yogi (who is listed at about an inch shorter but could be more like two or three).  Either option is workable, as both are exceedingly quick and neither creates too huge of a miss-match at any other position.  The thing I worry about with Hollins is that, while he does hit 39% of this three-pointers, he has only hit 5-19 in the last three games (26%).  If we go by the law of averages, he's due for a good shooting performance sometime soon (hopefully it will come in their last three games against Penn State, Nebraska, and Purdue).  In the previous game, Hollins went 5-12 from deep and scored 25 points.  Victor is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and over 2 steals per game while shooting 64% from the field and 51% from deep.  He is even better than Hollins at drawing fouls, but at the same time has a significantly higher free throw rate.  As long as he can avoid the stupid foul calls from the previous game, Victor should be able to handle any match-up with which he's faced.

Another key match-up will be with Austin Hollins, a 6'4" junior.  Once again, I could see Yogi and Victor splitting time with the taller of the two Hollins, although I do see Yogi getting a good bit of time on Austin despite the height difference.  This Hollins is averaging 11 points, 3 assists, and almost 2 steals per game.  He is also very good at not committing fouls; he was the only starter to have fewer than four fouls in the previous game against IU.  While Yogi doesn't score at as high a level (7 points per game), he is a phenomenal distributor (4 assists per game) with great court vision.  He is even better at not committing fouls than Hollins.

The final guard match-up will likely be Joe Coleman and Jordy Hulls.  Coleman averages 9 points and 4 rebounds per game, and is pretty good at stealing the ball.  Jordy is getting 11 points and 3 assists per game while hitting 49% of his three pointers.  While there will be a height miss-match no matter who Jordy guards, this seems like the logical choice for him.  What will be interesting is seeing who is tasked with becoming his bestest buddy and not leaving his side on the other end.

After his success guarding the bigger A.J. Hammonds of Purdue, Christian Watford could be splitting time with Cody Zeller in guarding Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams.  The two are only 6'8" and 6'7" respectively, so there is not a big difference in size.  Williams is averaging more points (11 compared to 9.5), but Mbakwe is grabbing more boards (8.5 compared to 5).  Williams is also a minor threat to shoot the deep shot, however he has only attempted 33 of them (Mbake has not attempted any).  Mbakwe is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and is also a very good shot blocker.  He also draws fouls very well and is in the top 15 in the country in free throw rate at 80% (four free throws for every five field goal attempts).  On the other hand, he only hits 61% of those attempts.  Williams is also a decent offensive rebounder and also draws fouls pretty well, but he also shoots below 70% from the free throw line.  Christian and Cody are averaging 13 and 17 points respectively, and Christian pulls down almost seven rebounds per game while Cody grabs eight.  Christian is definitely a threat to pull the perimeter shot, hitting 49% of his attempts.  Cody is phenomenal at drawing fouls and is in the top 20 in free throw rate at over 75%, where he hits 75% of his attempts.  Christian also has a free throw rate of above 50%, and is second in the conference at hitting his free throws (82%).

Final Thoughts:

The Hoosiers are favored to win this game, but it was the same against Illinois and we saw how that turned out.  As with Illinois, the Gophers are looking for a signature resume-boosting win against a ranked opponent, and Indiana is their last shot.  The Gophers also won't forget Indiana's last trip to The Barn, where the Hoosiers won 69-50.

Turnovers will be a major factor in this game.  Neither team is particularly good at not turning the ball over, but Indiana tends to be at least slightly better at forcing the other team into turnovers.  In the previous game, the Hoosiers had five turnovers in the final eight minutes compared with one for the Gophers in the same time span, and this helped to keep Minnesota in the game.

Fouls could also be critical in this game.  If IU can get the Gophers into foul trouble (and into their bench) early, this could cause troubles for a team which has a fairly limited bench.  The Hoosiers are very good at drawing fouls and proved this in the previous game by forcing two players to foul out and two more to be on the verge.  On the other hand, the Hoosiers also need to avoid foul trouble as their bench is also somewhat suspect (although some of this is due to injury).  Overall, the Hoosiers have done a better job avoiding fouls than Minnesota, which could be the difference in a close game if the players are hitting their free throws.

As with many other opponents, I do not see Minnesota as being able to withstand the one-two punch of Victor and Cody (although I'll leave it up to you to decide who's one and who's two).  No team has yet found a way to neutralize both players within a single game, and I don't see that changing now with an outright Big Ten title on the line.  There are no guarantees when it comes to road games, particularly at The Barn, but if the Hoosiers could win this, they would need only one more win for at least a share of the title and two wins to get the title outright.  This should be a very physical game with lots of rebounding and lots of excitement.

That's the Game: Michigan State

What a game!  The Hoosiers pulled out the win 72-68 in the hostile confines of the Breslin Center in East Lansing.  With the Big Ten title and a number one seed in the Tourney on the line, along with a 22-year long 17 game losing streak at Michigan State, on the line, Indiana just kept going and going until the clock ran out.  After some difficulties, that is.  Twice in the final 30 seconds, the clock did not start when the ball was inbounded, slowing the game even further as the refs went to the monitor to figure out what in the world was going on.

Speaking of refs, my goodness was this crew bad!  That's a Ted Valentine game for you.  I could have accepted the somewhat-questionable Flagrant I foul called on Christian Watford on incidental contact against Adreian Payne early in the second half if they had called the same on Derrick Nix when he decided to show his frustrations by intentionally making some below-the-belt contact on Cody Zeller toward the end of the game.  Somehow there was enough evidence to call the first, but not enough evidence to call the second.  If that's the case, maybe these refs need to find a new job that relies less on being able to actually see.

But despite the officiating and intense physicality, the final minute belonged to Victor Oladipo.  First came a tip-in shot off of a Yogi Ferrell miss to put IU up 68-67.  Next came an insanely open dunk out of a sideline-out-of-bounds play to go up 70-67.  To wrap up the game, he collected the rebound off a Gary Harris intentionally missed free throw, was quickly fouled, and made both free throws to seal the game at 72-68.  Victor stepped up every time that Indiana needed him on his way to an individual stat line of 19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, and a block and only one turnover.

The Game:

One of the keys to this game was to hold onto the ball.  The Hoosiers were able to do just that, turning it over 10 times to Michigan State's 12.  Another factor I thought would be key was free throw shooting and the ability to get to the line.  The Hoosiers did pretty poorly at this, getting to the line only 15 times and hitting 10 of them.  The Spartans, on the other hand, made 16-23 free throws.  When it mattered most, however, IU hit their freebies while MSU did not; in the final 1:30 the Spartans hit only 2-6 while the Hoosiers hit 3-3.  Those four free throws could have been the difference in the game.

Aside from a few exceptions, the Indiana defense was very solid.  For the second straight game, they were able to negate Keith Appling completely.  This time, however, he played a team-high 36 minutes but was only able to put up six points (four from the charity stripe), two assists, and another team-high four turnovers.  This was due in most part to the work of both Victor and Yogi, a combination which has caused problems for all sorts of teams.  The Hoosiers also did a pretty good job on Harris, although he did put up 19 points.  In doing so, however, he went only 1-5 from deep after hitting five at Assembly Hall.  The guy who spent a lot of time on Harris was Jordy Hulls, who stuck to him like glue for the most part.

If Indiana's defense was good, it's offense was even better.  Putting up 72 points at Michigan State is no easy task.  One of the more impressive stats to me is that the Hoosiers managed to put up more second chance points (12-8) than MSU despite the fact that the Spartans out-rebounded the Hoosiers 31-28, including 10-8 on the offensive end.  Victor was able to score in just about every conceivable way: driving lay-ups, put-backs, jumpers, and free throws.  And all of this came on an ankle that he admitted was only at about 85%.  Cody was the second-leading scorer for the Hoosiers at 17 points, and he managed to diversify his shot selection from his normal point-blank shots by shooting and hitting a few key mid-range jumpers.  While Christian did not score like he usually does (he missed the first two free throws after a three-point foul), he did put up 12 points, including a huge three-point play the old-fashioned way in the final 1:30.  Jordy also had 12 points and showed just how deep of a range he has by popping a shot from about nine feet beyond the arc.  Although Yogi did not put up a ton of points, he did dish out five of the team's seven assists and was the picture of composure in a very hostile environment, especially considering his status as a freshman.

Final Thoughts:

There were a couple of very important milestones in this game: both Cody and Victor earned their way into the 1,000-point club.  This made it the first time that Indiana has ever had four players in the 1,000-point club at the same time.

This game also had very big implications.  The Hoosiers are now alone at the top of the Big Ten, and are essentially two games up on Michigan State as they have the head-to-head tie-breaker.  This game also went a long way in cementing the Hoosiers as a #1 seed for the NCAA Tourney and could possibly be placed in the incredibly-advantageous Indianapolis regional.

The schedule does not get much easier for the Hoosiers.  They travel to Minnesota next Tuesday, followed by a home-stand against both Iowa and Ohio State, and end the season playing at Michigan.  The Hoosiers are currently 12-2 in the Big Ten and 24-3 on the season.

Hoosier Highlights:

Jordan Hulls: Jordy is now up to 1,261 points in his career, which is good for 29th all-time as he passed up Tom Van Arsdale.  Next up are Steve Green (1,265) and Joby Wright (1,272).

Cody Zeller:  Cody is now at 1,011 points in his career (44th all-time).  Next up is Harry "Butch" Joyner (1,030).

Victor Oladipo:  Victor now has 1,005 points in his career (46th).  Next up (outside of Cody) are Jared Jeffries (1,008) and Harry "Butch" Joyner (1,030).  Victor also has 64 steals on the season as he passed Isiah Thomas to take third place on his own.  Next up is Quinn Buckner in second place (65) and Isiah Thomas again at the top spot (74).  Victor has 147 steals in his career (5th).  Next up are Alan Henderson (148) and Greg Graham (151).

The Game Ahead: Michigan State

Who knows what the score could have been?  The Hoosiers steamrolled the Boilermakers 83-55... and Victor Oladipo didn't play at all in the second half.  After limping to the locker room just before half with a tweaked ankle, Victor took the unusual role of cheerleader for the final 17 minutes (he joined the bench about three minutes into the half).  This was a wise decision by Coach Crean & Co., as Indiana never once lost control of this game.

This dominance, naturally, was done through the standout performance of Victor's fellow-junior buddy Will Sheehey.  There's a reason this duo is nicknamed "Shee-ladipo;" it's hard to pinpoint where one stops and the other begins.  In Victor's absence, Will had a career-high 22 points on the ridiculously efficient, school-record-setting 9-9 from the field, including two three-pointers.  You read that right: school-record-setting 9-9 from the field.  Of all the amazing players to don the candy stripes, names like Calbert Cheaney, Steve Alford, Damon Bailey, and Isiah Thomas come to mind, Will is the only player to hit all nine of his shots in one game.  That's some pretty good company right there.

The remainder of the Hoosier's starting line-up were their usual dominant selves.  Cody Zeller managed to quietly put up 19 points and nine rebounds, and Jordan Hulls scored 11 on 3-6 shooting from deep and chipped in five assists.  Yogi Ferrell, who comes in at maybe 6'0", pulled down six rebounds to go with his five assists.  Christian Watford scored 14 points, including the team's first eight, while effectively shutting down A.J. Hammonds.  And while he only played 14 minutes, Victor did manage to pull down five boards.

Now the road for the Hoosiers gets pretty rough.  They travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State on Tuesday at 7pm on ESPN.  The game will be called by Dick Vitale and Magic Johnson as he returns to his school for his first experience in in-game commentating.

The Teams:

The Hoosiers won the first game at Assembly Hall at the end of January.  Indiana was able to force guard Keith Appling on the bench for 21 minutes, limiting him to three points, no assists, and four turnovers before fouling out.  The odds of that happening again are pretty slim, especially at the Breslin Center.  Another thing that is unlikely to happen again is the Spartans going 11-23 from deep; they average five made three-pointers per game.  Gary Harris hit five threes, and Adreian Payne, who had five made three-pointers in his career going into the game, hit three of them in the game at Assembly Hall.  I also don't see Michigan State going to the line only six times as a team like they did at Assembly Hall.  Cody on his own shot as many free throws as the Spartans as a team.

The Spartans are putting up 70 points per game, and Ken Pomeroy has them in the top 20 offenses in the country and top 15 defenses.  They average about 38 rebounds and 14 assists per game, and are hitting 47% of their field goals.  They also get to the free throw line at a decent rate (more than once for every three field goal attempts).

In contrast, the Hoosiers are the second-highest scoring offense in the country at 83 points per game.  According to the same Ken Pomeroy statistics, Indiana has the top ranked offense and 12th ranked defense.  The Hoosiers are grabbing 39 rebounds and dishing out 15 assists per game, and hit 50% of their field goals (good for 4th in the country).  Indiana gets to the free throw line at an even better rate than Michigan State, almost once for every two field goal attempts.

The Match-ups

These match-ups could be a little different this time around depending upon how Victor's ankle is holding up and how much Coach Crean is willing to push him.  In the first game, Victor was dominant, scoring 21 points, grabbing seven rebounds and six steals, and swatting away three blocks.  One of the keys will be shutting down Harris, who scored 21 in Assembly Hall while not turning it over at all.  There are several different options for guarding Harris depending upon who is in the line-up for both teams.  One option would be to have Vic guard him and take the chance of putting Jordy on Branden Dawson, who is 6'6".  The plus side to that is that Dawson is not particularly dangerous from outside so as long as Jordy could keep Dawson in front of him, this tactic could have some success.  Another option would be to have Jordy stick to Harris like glue.  Harris has been shooting primarily from deep since the first game, and Jordy has been doing a solid job of getting through picks and runs through the post meaning he could do a decent job of both preventing him from getting the ball in position to shoot and from getting the shot off.  Whichever way the Hoosiers go, Harris needs to be contained to keep him from going off for five three-pointers again.

Cody and Christian will have their own battles in the post with Payne and Derrick Nix.  Payne had 18 in the previous match-up, but as previously mentioned he hit an exceedingly uncharacteristic three shots from deep.  He does a decent job of drawing fouls, but he commits them even more, although he was one of only two in the Spartan's starting line-up who wasn't in foul trouble against Indiana the first time around.  Nix does an even better job of drawing fouls, but he can also be coerced into getting himself into foul trouble.  While he has bulk on both Cody and Christian, both of them have an edge in speed, which makes it easier for a guy like Nix to find himself sitting on the bench early with foul trouble.  As mentioned before pretty much every game, Cody is one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls and getting to the line, and this could be especially critical in East Lansing.  What is interesting is that Christian is starting to catch-up to Cody in this category and has now passed up Victor to move to second on the team.  This has come thanks to an increased aggressiveness on Christian's part, something that Hoosier Nation is very excited to see.  If Christian and Cody can keep this up, it could be a long night for the Spartan big men.

It will be interesting to see how Appling rebounds in this game.  The junior has been putting up good numbers since that late January game, but there is always the human element that must be taken into account.  There is the chance that he could come out over-aggressive in trying to prove himself, which could land his butt on the bench if he isn't careful.  There is also the possibility that he comes out hesitantly in an effort to show that his foul trouble and sloppy play were exceptions to the rule, which could make him both softer on defense and less likely to make hard drives to the basket on offense.  Appling, however, is a seasoned veteran of a Tom Izzo squad, and I do not see either of those possibilities actually happen.  I foresee Yogi having his hands full all night, but I also see him holding up to the pressure.

Final Thoughts:

This game is a toss-up.  It could easily go either way.  This has the potential to be one of the best games this season; the Big Ten outright title is on the line and a number one seed in the tourney (particularly the advantageously-located Indianapolis regional) is up for grabs.  If the Hoosiers could win this, it would also be the first time since 1991 that the Hoosiers get a win in East Lansing.

The two biggest factors in this game for both teams are turnovers and free throws.  The Hoosiers and Spartans combined for 34 turnovers, and each team continues to average pretty high turnover rates.  But in a game like this every possession counts, and the team that can hold onto the ball the most will have a big advantage in this contest.  Free throws, especially late, could also be the difference in this game.  The Hoosiers tend to get to the line more frequently and hit a higher percentage on those shots, but the hostile environment of the Breslin Center could make anything possible.

Hoosier Highlights:

Jordan Hulls - Jordy's 11 points against Purdue put him at 1,249 in his career, passing up Dick Van Arsdale.  Next on the list is twin brother Tom Van Arsdale with 1,252 points.

Cody Zeller - Cody is now up to 994 points in his career, six away from 1,000.

Victor Oladipo - Victor has 986 points in his career, 14 away from the 1,000-point club.  He also has 59 steals on the season (4th all-time for the Hoosiers), and is three steals away from joining Isiah Thomas in third.  Victor also has 142 steals in his career (5th place) and needs six steals to join Alan Henderson in fourth place.

Image from iuhoosiers.com

The Game Ahead: Purdue

The Hoosiers hope to crush the Boilermakers for a second time this season as Purdue visits Assembly Hall on Saturday for a 2pm game.  The game will be broadcast on ESPN with Bob Wischusen and Dan Dakich commentating.

Despite the Hoosiers' level of play going into the first match-up with Purdue on Jan 30, I don't think anyone would have predicted that IU would win by 37 points.  I mean, this was just about the definition of a trap game: a game against a lower-level team sandwiched between games against two ranked opponents (Michigan State and Michigan).  But thanks to multiple very good performances the Hoosiers were able to absolutely dominate at Mackey Arena.  Five Hoosiers scored in double-figures, with Cody Zeller pulling in a double-double, and the bench chipped in an impressive 23 points.  The Hoosiers were also able to rack up 21 assists, 10 steals, and 5 blocks while only turning the ball over eight times.  The one (extremely) bright spot for Purdue was the play of freshman big man A.J. Hammons, who scored 30 points on 10-14 shooting from the field and 10-12 from the free throw line in only 28 minutes of play.  He also managed to swat five shots on his own.

Since that game, the Boilermakers have lost three of four games, with the one win coming at winless-so-far Penn State.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, have won three out of four, with their lone loss being at Illinois.

The Teams:

The Boilermakers seem to have a bit of trouble with shooting.  They average only 65 points per game while hitting 44.8% two-point, 63.3% free throw, and 30.6% three-point.  This should be very good for the Indiana defense, which gives up on average 42% two-point and 30.8% three-point.  Purdue also does not tend to get to the line often, about once for every three field goal attempts; the Hoosiers have actually made more free throws than Purdue has attempted.  Overall, Ken Pomeroy ranks Purdue as the second-worst offense in the Big Ten going up against the third-best defense of the Hoosiers.

It doesn't look any better when you look at the other side of the ball.  By the same rankings, Purdue has the second-worst defense going up against the conference's best offense.  IU hits 42.7% from three-point land (good for first in the country), 53.6% two-point, and 75.1% from the charity stripe.  While the Boilermakers are pretty good at limiting opponents inside, they don't do quite as well along the perimeter, and even though they don't tend to send teams to the line excessively, they are going up against the second-best team in the country at getting to the charity stripe (almost once for every two field goal attempts).  The Boilermakers also don't make it a habit of forcing turnovers, grabbing five steals per game.

The Match-ups:

Oddly, the biggest match-up once again does not include Victor Oladipo.  Instead it will highlight the big men of Cody and Hammonds.  As I already mentioned, Hammonds had a stellar game back at the end of January, and it looked like that could continue for him... until he only put up 10 points against Illinois.  He currently averages 11 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks, along with 2 turnovers, per game.  He is only hitting 69% of his free throws, but still managed to hit 10-12 in the last game against the Hoosiers.  He was also somewhat limited by foul trouble, which is easy to do for any big man but especially those who are going up against Cody Zeller.  Cody is averaging 16.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 steal per game while shooting 60% field goal and 75% free throw.  As mentioned, Cody is phenomenal at drawing fouls (10th in the country), and his free throw rate ranks 11th in the country (4 free throws for every 5 field goal attempts).  At the same time, he is not getting himself into foul trouble often.  While Hammonds did a respectable job on Cody earlier this season, it could be very easy to see the freshman big man get rattled in the hostile environment of Assembly Hall.

Pretty much the only situation in which Victor will not be guarding an opponent's best player is when that player happens to be the center (such as Nebraska and Purdue).  Those assignments will always go to Cody.  But any other position... that assignment will always go to Vic.  The guy can guard any position 1-4 and can make that player's life miserable, if only for one night.  Whether guarding 6'2" Terone Johnson (the team's leading scorer) or the 6'5" D.J. Byrd (the team's most efficient shooter not named Hammonds), Victor should be able to showcase his skills.  Johnson is averaging 13 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, along with 2 turnovers.  Byrd is getting almost the same at 9.5 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 turnovers per game, however is also the most "deadly" from deep at 35.5%.  Johnson does a decent job of drawing fouls, but then hits under 60% of his free throw attempts.  Byrd is actually the best free throw shooter on the team at 75%, but he doesn't get to the line all that often.  Victor is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and steals, but also turns it over 2 times per game.  What stands out about Vic's stat line is that he is leading the team in field goal percentage (as a 6'5" guard) at 64.4% and very surprisingly is leading one of the nation's best perimeter shooting teams in three-point percentage at 52.4% (considering he shot only 20% last season).  He is just .3 three-point attempts per game away from qualifying for the national rankings in three-point percentage.  While his offensive game has drastically improved, it is his defense which is truly above and beyond.  He is in the top 15 in steals per game (first in the Big Ten), and is the only player in the Big Ten who is in the top 15 in the conference in points, rebounds, field goal %, free throw%, steals, and offensive rebounds (and he's in the top 10 in three of those categories).  Needless to say, it could be a tough night both for whomever Vic is guarding and whichever Boilermaker draws the short straw of guarding him.

Final Thoughts:

As with the last game against the Boilermakers, this game has the distinct threat of becoming a trap game, as the Hoosiers next game will be a visit to Michigan State on Tuesday, where the Spartans knocked off Michigan by the unbelievable score of 75-52.  I doubt, however, that this team will be looking past much of anything; the current seniors were around for a 19 point loss to Purdue their freshman year and the juniors also experienced a 14 point loss with them the next season.

Probably the biggest thing the Hoosiers will have to watch is rebounding; Purdue is the second-best team in the conference at offensive rebounding.  At the same time, the Hoosiers are the best team at defensive rebounding, and the Hoosiers out-rebounded the Boilermakers 34-23 in the previous match-up.

As somebody joked with me, Purdue has to go down 37 to IU twice this season (they lost by 37 in the first game and have to take IN-37 to get to Bloomington).  Whenever Purdue comes to town, the students get excited.  Add to this the fact that it is an afternoon game so the Crimson Guard will have "only" been outside for about five and a half or six hours, and you've got the makings of what should be a very loud, wild, loud, enthusiastic crowd.  Did I mention loud?  The Hoosiers should be able to ride all of this to a win before traveling to East Lansing tied with Michigan State atop the conference.

That's the Game: Nebraska

So as expected, the Hoosiers pulled off the big win 76-47 after an exceedingly slow start.  Led by Cody Zeller with 16 points, three Hoosiers scored in double-digits with three more within two points.  Senior Christian Watford also pulled down 11 rebounds to go with his 13 points, and Victor Oladipo came close to the double-double with 13 points and eight rebounds.  But this game was not always as certain as the final score would make it seem.

In the first half, Nebraska ran their defense almost to perfection, holding the Hoosiers to 27 points on 32% field goal shooting and 29% three-point.  The one thing the Cornhuskers just couldn't quite master was avoiding fouls.  Both Brandon Ubel and Andre Almeida committed 3 fouls in the first 20 minutes, severely shortening the Nebraska lineup.  All of these fouls resulted in the Hoosiers going to the line 16 times, hitting 13 of them.  It didn't, however, cause as much trouble as it should have, as Cody was saddled with his own foul troubles as well, playing only 18 minutes in the entire game.  

As well as Nebraska played on defense in the first half, they couldn't get anything going on the offensive side, scoring only 18 points.  They shot a decent-for-opponents-at-Assembly-Hall 42%, but went 0-8 from three point land.  They also only went to the free throw line four times.  What really caused the Cornhuskers to struggle was their 10 turnovers at the half, which is about how many times they give the ball up in the entire game, and they just weren't able to ever get into sync.

The second half was all Indiana.  The Hoosiers poured in 49 points, scoring more in the half than Nebraska did in the entire game.  A big part of this came from some incredible three-point shooting, hitting 6-9 from deep.  They also got to the free throw line another 13 times, hitting 11, while only sending Nebraska seven times.  After scoring only three first-half points, Cody was able to add 13 in the second half.  Most importantly, the Hoosiers played with much more energy in the second half and looked much more like the top team in the country.  As long as they can continue to play like that, they will be tough to beat.

A byproduct of such a great second half was that many of IU's role players were able to get some good minutes.  Will Sheehey, who averages starter's minutes anyway, nine points and four rebounds.  Mo Creek hit his first three-pointer since the beginning of January and pulled down two rebounds in his 13 minutes.  Remy Abell was also able to break out of his shooting slump, scoring six points in 12 minutes.  Derek Elston and Jeremy Hollowell each also contributed valuable time, playing almost 10 minutes.  Even when they were not on the court, the benchmob found a fun way to get involved.

The first half of the IU vs Nebraska game was another example of the Hoosiers playing down to the level of their competition, but the second half was a show of what can happen when this team plays at its usual level.  The positive note is that many of the remaining games for the Hoosiers are against high-level opponents, hopefully meaning they should play at their best.


Hoosier Highlights:

Jordy - Jordy scored 8 points against Nebraska, putting him at 1,238 in his career.  He is now two points away from Dick Van Arsdale and 14 away from Tom Van Arsdale.

Cody - Cody's 16 points put him at 975 in his career and only 25 from 1,000.

Victor - Vic's 13 points put him at 983 in his career, putting him 17 away from the 1,000-point club.  He also grabbed 3 steals, giving him 59 on the season and moving him into 4th place on the all-time Hoosier season list.  He needs three steals to move into 3rd place with Isiah Thomas.  Vic is also up to 142 steals in his career, which puts him in 5th place all-time with Mike Woodson.  He needs six steals to move into 4th place with Alan Henderson.

Image from iuhoosiers.com

The Game Ahead: Nebraska

This game kicks off somewhat of an easier stretch for the Hoosiers (although saying any game in the Big Ten is easy is a very bad idea), as they play host to Nebraska on Wednesday and the hated Purdue on Saturday afternoon.  The game tips-off at 7pm on Big Ten Network.

Now, after last season, I'm never going to say that this game is a guaranteed win.  And I'm sure that every player who was on that team is thinking the same thing.  Even so, this Nebraska team has been a bit of a basement-dweller this season with a conference record of 3-8.  But don't let that fool you (see Illinois beating IU while sporting a record of 2-7 in conference).  This team, under the leadership of first-year coach Tim Miles is on its way up over the next couple years.  As it is, Nebraska currently leads the IU series since they joined the Big Ten, winning the only game last season 70-69 in Nebraska.  Looking at that game, a couple things jump out.  Only two Hoosiers (Cody and Jordy) scored in double-digits, the team turned it over 15 times, and only got to the charity stripe 13 times while sending Nebraska 19 times.  They were also doubled in the offensive rebound category.  However, this Hoosier team is a whole different animal this season.

There are not many stats that jump off the page for the Cornhuskers.  They are very good at holding onto the ball (ranked 32 in the nation per Ken Pomeroy), and do a decent job of defending the perimeter, holding their opponents to 31.7% from three-point land.  Other than that, it could be a rough night for Nebraska.  They average 59 points per game, good for a whopping 333rd in the country.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are second in the nation in scoring with 83.2 points per game.  The Hoosiers also lead in the rebound and assists categories, pulling down 39 rebounds and dishing out 16 assists compared to 33 and 10 respectively for the Cornhuskers.  And it doesn't get any better for them if you look at the individual match-ups.

The biggest match-up which could hold some interest for once does not involve any players named Victor Oladipo.  Instead it features Cody and Brandon Ubel for Nebraska.  The 6'10" senior Ubel is averaging about 12 points and 7 rebounds per game, but is also turning the ball over a team-high two times per game.  He also has a surprisingly low field goal percentage for a big man at 47.7%  Cody is averaging 16.5 points and 8 rebounds while playing on average three fewer minutes than Ubel.  He is also hitting 60% of his field goal attempts.  Cody should be able to have his way with Ubel, especially considering some of the elite talent he's faced so far.  He will have to be careful on fouls, as Ubel is pretty good at drawing fouls, and he has the highest free throw rate on the team, shooting almost one free throw for every two field goal attempts. At the same time, he has been committing fouls at a somewhat high rate, and he'll be going up against Cody, who is one of the best players in the country at drawing fouls and he gets to the line more than three times for every four field goal attempts.  Actually, one of the only players who fouls more frequently than Ubel is his big-man buddy Andre Almeida, who weighs in at 314. If matched up with Almeida, Cody should be able to run the fellow big until either Coach Miles has to pull him out or he passes out from exhaustion, whichever comes first.

The only other somewhat high-key match-up is between the 6'5" guards of Victor and Dylan Talley.  Talley is averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, but also turns it over 2 times a game.  His field goal shooting is also not overly impressive at 35% and his three-point percentage sits at 31.8%.  Victor is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.3 steals, but also turns it over 2 times per game.  The amazing stat, however, is that while playing the same position, Victor's percentages are significantly higher at 64.5% field goal and 53.8% three-point.  Talley is pretty good at avoiding fouls, but once again Victor is very good at drawing them.  Once again, this match-up should strongly go toward the Hoosiers, as there are few players in the country who can match-up with Victor and I don't see Nebraska even having a chance at stopping him.

This game should be pretty straightforward, especially being played at Assembly Hall.  The Hoosiers should be able to come out strong and do what they do best: run, run, run, and run some more.  This could also be a good game to see some role players get bigger minutes, particularly the recovered Derek and Mo.  I'd also like to see Remy get some time to try to work out whatever is causing him to struggle, and I hope Jeremy gets some good time too, as he has really impressed me the last few games.  As long as the Hoosiers can do a decent job of holding onto the ball and can get to the free throw line more often than they did during the game last season, this one should be the start of a winning week for IU.

Hoosiers Maintain Top Ranking

The Hoosiers used their most complete and impressive win of the season at then-#10 Ohio State to remain at the top-ranked team in the country despite a mid-week loss at unranked Illinois.

Indiana earned 26 out of the 65 first-place votes, followed by Duke with 20, Miami with 17, and Gonzaga with 2.  Michigan, however, managed to sneak in between Miami and Gonzaga to take fourth place overall with Gonzaga coming in at 5th.

Elsewhere around the Big Ten, Michigan State jumped four spots to join the top 10 at number eight after defeating then-#18 Minnesota and a thus far less-than-impressive Purdue squad.  Ohio State, on the other hand, dropped three spots to #13 after losing a heart-breaker at then-#3 Michigan and a tough loss to #1 Indiana, losing back-to-back games for the first time in over 120 games.  At first, this drop surprised me, as there was not a top team in the country which had a more difficult week than Ohio State, but then I noticed that the Buckeyes are the only team in the top 15 with more than five losses and one of only three in the top 25.  Wisconsin jumped into the rankings at #20 after beating Iowa in double overtime and then-#3 Michigan in overtime after an amazing Ben Brust buzzer-beating half-court prayer of a shot.  What is unclear to me is how Wisconsin could make such a jump, while Illinois, who defeated #1 Indiana and then-#18 Minnesota at The Barn, is not in the rankings.  I guess a 4-7 Big Ten record is just not enough for the AP voters at this point in time.  Minnesota dropped out of the rankings this week, being the first "others receiving votes" team after losing to both Michigan State and Illinois.

The key thing I'm drawing from both the rankings and the conference season so far is that beating up on each other is making it difficult for the Big Ten to maintain its rankings.  While this could be good for any bubble teams (see Illinois confusing mix of losses to Purdue and Northwestern and wins against Ohio State, Indiana, and Minnesota).  It's not out of the realm of possibility for the Big Ten to have seven representatives in the NCAA tourney, with several of them possibly being in the top 3 seeds.

The Big Ten road, however, does not appear to get any easier for any of the top teams.  Michigan State will play host to rival Michigan on Tuesday before visiting Nebraska.  They then have four-straight games against ranked opponents (hosting Indiana, visiting Ohio State and Michigan, and hosting Wisconsin).  In addition to the two games against Michigan State, the Wolverines also have visits from Illinois and Indiana before the season is done.  Wisconsin has a fairly daunting week, playing at Minnesota and hosting Ohio State, but beyond that they only have one other ranked match-up on the season (Michigan State).  Ohio State plays host to Northwestern this week before traveling to Wisconsin.  They also have games against Minnesota, Michigan State, and Illinois along with a return trip to Indiana.

While Indiana has an arguably easier schedule this week than any of the above (hosting Nebraska and Purdue), they follow it up with trips to Michigan State and Minnesota, hosting Ohio State, and finishing the season by traveling to Ann Arbor to face off with Michigan.  With the Hoosiers tied with the Spartans for top of the conference at 9-2 with Michigan and Wisconsin each a game back, it has become distinctly possible for the eventual-champion to post a Big Ten record of 14-4 or even 13-5.  That's how good this conference is this year.

That's the Game: Ohio State

Hoosiers win 81-68

The scene was almost the same as the one last year: Victor throwing down a monster dunk while the Buckeyes can do nothing but watch.  The junior put together a monster of a stat line - a career-high 26 points on 8-10 shooting and 9-10 free throw, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals.  The Buckeyes couldn't figure out what to do with him and he made a solid case for both Defensive Player of the Year and Player of the Year.

Now, usually seeing that kind of stat line you'd think that it was the biggest thing of note.  Not today.  In addition to Victor, Cody scored 24 points and Christian put up 20.  Cody hit 8-11 both from the field and free throw line, while pulling down 8 rebounds and 1 block.  Christian hit 4 of his 5 three-point attempts and all 4 of his free throws while notching 6 rebounds, an assist and a steal.  Add to that 4 assists from Jordy and 3 assists from Yogi, and the Buckeyes didn't stand a chance.

Ohio State did not just roll over though.  Led by Deshaun Thomas, who played the entire 40 minutes, the Buckeyes kept the game reasonably close until well into the final minute.  Thomas tied Victor to lead all scorers with 26 points, however he was much less efficient, hitting only 8 of 20 shots for 40%.  He also pulled down 7 rebounds and registered 1 block.  Next up was Aaron Craft, who's final trip to the bench after his 5th foul with about 40 seconds remaining sealed the game for the Hoosiers, who put up 16 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and one steal.  Off the bench, LaQuinton Ross chipped in 11 points, and the next closest player in scoring was Lenzelle Smith, Jr. with 6 points.  The big stat for the Hoosiers in this regard is that the three big men used by the Buckeyes (Amir Williams, Evan Ravenel, and Trey McDonald) were a combined 2-4 from the field and scored 5 points while combining for 10 fouls.  Out of the three, Ravenel was the only Buckeye big man to even attempt a field goal.

This game did have a couple of uncharacteristic performances, both by individuals and at the team level.  For the Hoosiers, Yogi was held to a single point, going 1-2 from the charity stripe after putting up several double-digit performances during Big Ten play.  Most of this came down to two factors - some early foul trouble and the fact that he was going against one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in Craft.  Even with that, he only turned the ball over one time.  Along that line, the Hoosiers only turned the ball over 8 times as a team.  This is only the third time in the conference season that the Hoosiers have had single-digit turnovers and the first time against a ranked team.  This is especially impressive because the Buckeyes came in as the top-ranked defense in the Big Ten.  Another more negative anomaly for IU was Jordy's 3-point percentage, a dismal 14%.  This is, however, an anomaly, and as such I don't expect it to rear its head often.  One final odd quirk came from Ohio State's 3-point percentage.  The Buckeyes shot 23% from deep, a solid 15% lower than their season average.  This is a welcome rare sight for the Hoosiers, where their opponent shot a lower perimeter percentage than average.

So the result of this game was somewhat unexpected, as the Hoosiers were only favored by a single point with a 52% chance of leaving Columbus with a victory (it's sort of hard to say that anything is unexpected after watching Notre Dame score 12 points in the final minute against Louisville to send it to overtime, and then another, and another, and another, and another).  Instead, the Hoosiers proved that they learned from the Illinois loss and were able to finish it down the stretch.  IU was able to hold onto the ball, and while Thomas did score a lot, he was inefficient and just did not seem comfortable playing against the combo of Victor and Christian.  Cody was much more demanding than usual and it paid off, leading to lots of points and rebounds and causing foul chaos for the Ohio State big men.  If the Hoosiers (and not just Victor, Cody, and Christian) can continue to play at this level, there are very few teams which can beat them, even on the road.

Hoosier Highlights:

Throughout the remainder of the season, I will update the information on players who have reached or are approaching big milestones.

Christian - with 20 points today, Christian jumped up to 1,603 on his career, which is good for 11th place all-time at Indiana and passed Scott May.  In order to move into the top ten and tie Brian Evans, he will need to score another 98 points.

Jordy - Jordy now has 1,230 points in his career, good for 31st all-time.  He is catching up with the Van Arsdale twins, with Dick at number 30 with 1,240 points and Tom at number 29 with 1,252.

Cody - Cody's 24 points today puts him at 959 in his not-quite-two-year career, 41 points from 1,000.  He is currently 48th on the all-time Hoosier scoring list.

Victor - His 26 points today put Victor at 970 career points, needing 30 to join the 1,000-point club, and he currently sits two slots above Cody at number 46 on the list.  He also has 56 steals on the season, which puts him on his own in 6th place all-time.  He needs one steal to join Tom Coverdale at number 5, and 3 more steals to join Luke Recker at the number 4 slot.  Victor also has 139 career steals, which gives him 6th place on his own.  He needs 3 steals to tie Mike Woodson in the 5th slot and 9 to join Alan Henderson in the 4th spot.

Yogi - Yogi is up to 106 assists, which keeps him in 3rd place on the freshman season assists list.  He needs to get 23 more assists to tie A.J. Guyton for second.  If he can get 38 more assists this season, he would tie Damon Bailey for 15th on the all-time season assists list.

Image from the Indy Star

The Game Ahead: Ohio State

I was going to do a post-game write-up after the Illinois game, but I still cannot be completely rational and objective about it, so it's just not going to happen.  Suffice it to say that it should not be possible for a team that leads in field goal percentage, free throw rate, and rebounds to lose without some outside help (even with 14 turnovers).  To put it in perspective, IU had two more turnovers against then-#1-ranked Michigan and still pulled it off (Michigan only turned the ball over 8 times and the Illini turned it over 9 times).  To say that the technical foul on Will (which ended up being worth 4 points for the Illini) was bogus is just about the understatement of the season (coming just behind "Cody is tall" and "Victor can jump").

But that game is in the past, and the Hoosiers now need to focus on tomorrow's game at Ohio State.  I'm hoping the above image (from The Hoosier Scoop) is characteristic of what will happen: Victor dominating in exciting fashion while Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft are unable to do anything but stand by and watch helplessly.  The game is at 1pm on CBS and is being called by Kevin Harlan and Clark Kellogg.  Ken Pomeroy favors the Hoosiers by a single point with a 52% probability of an IU win.  Which in normal-speak means nobody has any idea how this game will end.  Both teams are coming off of tough losses, IU losing by a buzzer-beating layup at Illinois Thursday and OSU losing by two in overtime at Michigan.  Currently (prior to the Michigan State vs Purdue game), the Hoosiers and Spartans are once again tied at the top of the conference with Michigan and Wisconsin tied half a game back and Ohio State next at one game back.  It is now becoming more and more possible for the eventual conference winner to end with a conference record of 14-4, and it is more than possible for multiple teams to take a share of the title.  It has also become possible (but not guaranteed) that the Big Ten could be represented by seven teams in the NCAA Tourney (the above-named teams plus Minnesota and maybe Illinois).

As you can see, this game has a lot of implications (another pretty big understatement).  The last time the Hoosiers knocked off the Buckeyes in Columbus was in February of 2008, led by DJ White's double-double and Eric Gordon's 15 points.  That game, however, is one of only two games that the Hoosiers have won in Columbus since the 2001-2002 season.

These two teams offer an interesting overall match-up.  The Hoosiers are ahead in many of the major categories (points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, and field goal percentage), but the numbers are very close across the board.  The Buckeyes are hitting about 37% of their three-pointers, however that does not seem to matter much when teams are playing the Hoosiers (the Illini were hitting about 25% of their deep shots but connected on 38% in order to top IU).  Even the average turnovers per game aren't all that different, with the Buckeyes turning it over 11 times per game to the Hoosiers' 13.

If there weren't many high-level individual match-ups in the Illinois game, there are many against Ohio State.  Once again, Victor highlights the match-up of match-ups, likely squaring off against Ohio State's do-it-all junior Deshaun Thomas, a Ft. Wayne, Indiana native.  The 6'7" Thomas is averaging almost 20 points and 6 rebounds per game, even if his shooting percentages are pretty low (field goal of 46.4% and three-point of 40%).  The one shooting percentage at which he excels is free throw, where he hits 82% of his attempts.  At the same time, however, he is not typically particularly good at getting to the line (only once for every four field goal attempts).  As is required by his team, Thomas does not go to the bench often, playing 35 minutes per game, and using more possessions than anyone on either team.  Even with that, he doesn't turn the ball over all that often, and is actually in the top 40 in the nation at not turning the ball over.  Victor should be a formidable foe for Thomas.  Despite a 2-3 inch height difference, Victor should be athletic enough to keep up with Thomas whether he chooses to go out to the perimeter or battle it out in the post.  Surprisingly enough for a guard, Victor posts a block rate of 3% (compare that to Cody's rate of 4.8% despite the 7 inch height difference), which should come in handy when Thomas decides to shoot closer to the basket.  Probably more importantly is that Victor ranks 21st in steal percentage, meaning that something has got to give between his ability to steal and Thomas' tendency to hold onto the ball.  Victor's work (along with Will's, Jeremy's, and possibly Christian's) on Thomas will be key because if he can be shut down there's only one other Buckeye averaging double-digit points (Lenzelle Smith Jr.).  I also don't necessarily see Thomas guarding Victor in return, as the bigger Buckeye body will most likely need to go up against Christian, and I also don't see anyone being able to match-up enough with Victor on the offensive end.

Another premier match-up will be Yogi versus Aaron Craft.  Both are very good point guards, however Craft is better known for his lock-down defense (he was last season's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year).  On a side-note, while Victor most likely will not guard him often, this game could go a long way in determining which elite-level defender (Victor or Craft) will earn this season's Big Ten DPOY and possibly the national award as well.  On the offensive end, Craft's numbers have not been all that impressive.  He's getting just over nine points per game on 38.5% field goal and 31% three-point.  He is averaging 4.5 assists to 2 turnovers, and he actually has a higher free throw rate than Thomas, going to the charity stripe once for every three field goal attempts.  Defense, however, is how Craft earns his scholarship and he is considered one of, if not the, best on-ball defender in the country.  He averages 2 steals a game while also not fouling very often.  Yogi, even as a freshman, has shown significant improvement both on offense and defense.  He's averaging almost 8 points a game, along with 4.5 assists to 2.2 turnovers.  He hits 40% of his field goals and 35% of his three-pointers, and manages to get to the free throw line almost once for every two field goal attempts.  Against Michigan, Yogi did a solid job of defending arguably the best point guard in the nation in Trey Burke, and even though Burke scored 25 points it took him an uncharacteristically inefficient 24 shots to do it.  What this comes down to is two of the league's best point guards squaring off, and while Craft may have an edge defensively, I think that Yogi is a well-rounded enough player to at least hold his own.

The final potentially high-level match-up is that of Cody and the 6'11" 250 pound Amir Williams, who is averaging 4.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.  This is an important match-up in that Williams is the only Buckeye over 6'8".  While Williams may draw fouls at a very high rate, he commits them at an even higher rate.  Add to this that Cody is one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls (19th) and getting to the free throw line (12th), and it could be a long night for both Williams and his 6'8" big-man-buddy Evan Ravenel, who commits fouls at about the same rate as Williams.  Cody is averaging 16 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and he also gets to the line around 3 times for every 4 field goal attempts, hitting 75% of those free throws.  At the same time as he can draw fouls, he also refrains from committing them, fouling not quite 3 times per 40 minutes.  While Williams (and Ravenel) may both have more muscle than he does, Cody is also the best running big man in the country.  If Cody can exploit that extra speed and agility, he should make life miserable for both Williams and Ravenel.  If he doesn't play to that strength, however, it could be a long night in which Cody gets out-physicalled down low.  While that does not seem likely, especially looking at the clinic he put on against the similarly-built Mitch McGary in the Michigan game, it is probably something on which the Buckeyes will try to focus.

The biggest potential problem-match-up I foresee is that of Jordy and Lenzelle Smith, Jr.  The 6'4" Smith is averaging 10.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while hitting 41.5% of his three-pointers.  While this would be a height mismatch whether guarded by Jordy or Yogi, Jordy tends to have difficulty guarding guards who are taller than he is, and Smith has about four inches on him.  This does not mean that Jordy cannot do it, it simply means that he's going to have to work very hard in order to be successful.

It should be interesting to see how the Hoosier role players respond in this game.  Despite the previously-mentioned technical foul, Will put up solid numbers against Illinois, scoring 13 points on 6-11 shooting while grabbing 2 boards and a steal and dishing out an assist while having no turnovers.  Jeremy once again also contributed valuable minutes, scoring 6 points in 9 minutes and going 2-2 from three-point land (his first made three-pointers since the Coppin State game on December 1).  He also had two assists and no turnovers. I'd like to see Derek and Mo get more time in as the continue to recover from their injuries, yet they are maintaining very minimal minutes.  It is also going to be important to get Remy's confidence back up as he continues to struggle at times on the court.

This is going to be a very good game by two teams who desperately want to rebound from tough losses.  The Hoosiers have had the tendency to play their best ball when up against their best competition (and also to play down to the level of their lesser opponents), and there are few teams in the country who are better than the Buckeyes, particularly when they are in Columbus.  As long as the Hoosiers can hold onto the ball down the stretch and decently contain Thomas they should be able to pull off this win.  But as I said earlier, nobody has any idea which way this game will go. 

Despite some bumps in the road, there are a few Hoosier highlights which deserve recognition and praise.  Christian, the active Big Ten leading career scorer, is up to 1,583 points in his career, and only needs 7 points to tie Greg Graham for 12th place all-time for Indiana and 10 points to tie Scott May at number 11.  In the loss to Illinois, Yogi became the fourth Hoosier freshman to make 100 assists, and he passed recent-graduate Verdell Jones III to take 3rd place on the list.  While this won't happen in the upcoming game (or the next couple games), Victor and Cody are only 56 points and 65 points away, respectively, from joining Jordy and Christian in the 1,000-point club, and both of them could do it within the remainder of the season.  Victor also currently has 54 steals on the season, which is good for a tie at 6th with Jared Jeffries for number of steals in a single season, and if he's able to grab 20 more he will be tied with Isiah Thomas at the top.  He has 137 steals in his career so far, which is also god for a tie at 6th with Tom Coverdale, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to move to the top with Dane Fife if he stays in the candy stripes next season.

The Rise of Victor

After being snubbed by the Wooden Award mid-season list, Victor has ascended to the 4th spot on the third regular-season Player of the Year straw poll, which polls the actual voters for the Wooden Award.  This means that Indiana has two of the top five candidates (Victor at 4th and Cody at 5th) and the Big Ten has three of the top five (Trey Burke from Michigan is ranked 1st) at this point in the season.

Victor came to Indiana as a pure athlete, a player who had very solid defense but did not have the refined skills of an elite player.  Coming out of high school, he was ranked just 144th.  Critics complained about his lack of shooting ability and his out-of-control nature when handling the ball.  Fans, however, saw Victor as one of the most entertaining players to watch, one who was willing to do whatever it took to get the Crimson Guard riled up.

Through hard work and hours upon hours of extra time in the gym, Victor-the-raw-athlete has given way to Victor-the-potential-player-of-the-year.  He is averaging 14 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 68% field goal, and 51% three-point.  To begin to put a measure to how special this is, the last Big Ten player to average at least 60% field goal and 50% three-pointers was Glen Rice from Michigan in 1989-90, and if he were to win the Wooden Award, he would be the only winner ever to maintain that average.  Also, should he maintain his current pace, he would be only the second player in over 30 years in the Big Ten to average at least 14 points, 2.5 steals, and 5.5 rebounds, with the only other player being Ryan Bowen from Iowa in 1997-98.

All of that just shows the concrete, statistical aspect of Victor's game.  Almost more important than that is the spark, passion, and tremendous energy he brings every single game.  He uses his pure athleticism and newly-refined skills to deflate the opposing team until they're just hanging there like a balloon that sprung a leak.

Just watching Victor you can see how much he loves this game and how much work he's put into it.  After the almost-unbelievable improvement he's shown this season, he could very easily be a lottery pick in this year's draft if he chooses.  I hope that he sticks around in his candy stripes one more season, because if you think he's deadly now, just wait until he's had another off-season's worth of practice under his belt.  If team's are having trouble stopping him now, just imagine what it will be like once he can nail that monster dunk every time.

The Game Ahead: Illinois

Tomorrow evening the Hoosiers and Illini will face-off at the (fake) Assembly Hall at 7pm on ESPN.  Kenpom has IU as a 12-point favorite with an 83% probability of an IU victory, however, despite the similarity in name, this game is not being played in the extremely friendly confines of the (real) Assembly Hall.  While the Hoosiers are 4-0 so far on the road in the Big Ten, those wins have come at the less-than-daunting Iowa, Penn St., Northwestern, and Purdue.  While the Hoosiers beat the Hawkeyes and Wildcats by single digits, they defeated the Nittany Lions by 23 and arch-rival Purdue by 37 (the worst any Purdue team has ever lost to the Hoosiers inside Mackey Arena).

Now, Illinois has not been very friendly to the Hoosiers of late; Indiana has dropped the last three in a row and nine of the last 10.  Actually, the last Hoosier victory in the (fake) Assembly Hall was in February 2008, where Eric Gordon scored 19 points in the double-overtime victory, after he decommitted from Illinois to join the Hoosiers.  This trip has the chance to be different.

After getting off to an unbelievable start (13-1), the Illini have won only 2 games in the Big Ten (one of those was against Ohio State).  They have also lost their last four home games (including a loss to Northwestern).  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are playing their best basketball of the season and are the only remaining Big Ten team which is undefeated on the road.  They are coming off a huge win against Michigan and are hoping to be the first team in more than a month to hold onto the top spot in the polls for more than one week.  At the same time, this means that Illinois has nothing to lose and everything to gain.  After defeating both Butler and Gonzaga in the non-conference season, this could be their best shot at getting their foot into the NCAA Tourney door before it slams shut.

The game itself could be intriguing depending on which Illini team shows up to play.  In the non-conference, the team shot 39% from behind the arc, with a high of 57%.  In conference play, however, they are shooting 25% from three-point land.  Actually, just about the only category which hasn't suffered since the start of Big Ten play for the Illini is free throw percentage, where they've improved by about 3% to 74%.  The only Big Ten team with a better free throw percentage is, you guessed it, Indiana.

The best probable match-up this game offers is that of Brandon Paul and Victor Oladipo.  Paul uses an impressive 30% of his team's possessions and scores a team-high average of 17.4 points.  He also does a decent job of drawing fouls, getting to the charity stripe for a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of almost 50%.  He does, however, lead his team in turnovers (which isn't particularly unexpected in a guard).  Victor, on the other hand, is in the top 15 in the country in steal percentage and steals per game.  Also, in 45 defensive possessions against Michigan, Victor allowed his opponents to score only 4 points.  He's also averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds in addition to his 2.5 steals per game, but it's his explosiveness along with his newly-refined perimeter shot which make him extremely difficult to guard.  This match-up should lean strongly to Victor, but Paul can get hot at any time.

The rest of the match-ups don't seem to offer too much in the way of excitement, but either Jordy or Yogi will have to keep an eye on Tracy Abrams.  He may not be particularly threatening from deep, but he does lead the team in assists.  Down in the post, Cody should have a pretty easy-going night, as 6'11" sophomore Nnanna Egwu is putting up mediocre numbers after playing second-string to current Portland Trail Blazer Meyers Leonard (the #11 pick in last year's draft) all of last season.  He is averaging almost 7 points per game and almost 5 rebounds (which is a lower average than 6'5" Victor).  What could be the most important stat, however, is that he is averaging about 3.5 fouls per game and has fouled out of 6 games this season.  In comparison, IU has only had two foul-outs as a team, one each by Victor and Will.  This should be fun for the Hoosier big men plus Victor, as Cody is in the top 20 in the nation at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and Christian and Victor are not far behind.  If the Hoosiers were able to get Michigan (one of the best teams at avoiding foul calls) to foul 19 times (13 of them outside of the final two minutes), then they should have no problem getting to the line time and again against the Illini.  And, if the Hoosiers can hit free throws the way the did the last two games (41-45 for 91%), this game should be over before it even starts.

With all of this, the Hoosiers should be able to run their way right out of the (fake) Assembly Hall.  While Illinois likes to run, running with the Hoosiers is a game plan which won't offer much success for anybody in the country, let alone a struggling Illini team.  Even though the Hoosiers are on the road, I agree with Ken Pomeroy that the Hoosiers should win big, despite what will most definitely be a hostile environment.  The Illini have no answers for big men Cody and Christian, definitely nobody to control Victor (if that's even possible), nobody who can glue themselves to sharp-shooter Jordy for the full game, and no one to put enough pressure on Yogi to make him the least bit uncomfortable.  Throw in Will, who may struggle somewhat on the offensive end from time to time but is lethal on defense, Jeremy, who had arguably his most well-rounded game against Michigan with 4 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 blocks in 10 minutes, and the recovering combo of Derek and Mo, who are both veterans who can play quality minutes when tapped, and you've got a team that Illinois just cannot match.

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Since I wrote my first post, some things have majorly changed (at the same time as some things have remarkably stayed the same).

The Hoosiers are likely to once again be the #1 team in the country come tomorrow afternoon after defeating then - #1 Michigan on the same night that #2 Kansas was knocked off by Oklahoma State.  This comes after a deluge of different number 1s in the past month, going from Duke, to Louisville, back to Duke, and to Michigan and Kansas this past week (depending on which poll you use).  The Hoosiers are now in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State all just one game back.

Indiana is currently 20-2, with the two losses coming from Butler and Wisconsin (who simply seems to have had IU's number since before Coach Crean even took over the reins), and 8-1 in conference.  This Hoosier team is still the highest-scoring offense in the country, putting up almost 84 points a game nine games into the Big Ten season, while having the 6th highest field goal percentage at just over 50% and rating 16th in rebounds per game at 40.2.  Four Hoosiers are averaging double-digits in scoring: Cody (16.3), Victor (14), Christian (12.9), and Jordy (11.1).  Will is just outside of double-digits at 9.9 points a game after a bit of a shooting slump.

While some of my concerns for this team following the Butler loss have proven to be at least somewhat unfounded, one of them has sometimes remained concerning.

After being out-physicalled by Butler, this team has come out stronger.  40% of the rebounds the Hoosiers grab are of the offensive variety while they limit their opponents to under 30% offensive rebounds.  At the same time, they are holding their opponents to 43% field goal shooting while maintaining a defensive free throw rate of 25% (meaning that opposing teams average one free throw attempt for every four field goal attempts) which stands at 12th in the nation.  All of this means that the Hoosiers are playing more aggresively and physically without committing an excess of fouls.

While some may maintain that IU's perimeter defense is still lacking, I have seen that there is definitely a method to Coach Crean's madness.  With the exceptions of Iowa, Penn State, and Purdue, the Big Ten is averaging over 8 made 3 pointers per game against the Hoosiers, which seems fairly high.  On the other hand, those same teams needed an average of 23 attempts to get those 8 made 3-pointers, making them far less efficient than it would appear.  For opponents, 3-pointers make up about 35% of the shots they take, which is a good bit above the national average.  All of this points to the area I overlooked toward the beginning of the season: the 3-pointer is the lowest percentage shot.  Coach Crean and the Hoosiers are willing to give up a bit on the perimeter if it means that they are doing a better job at protecting the paint, and I have to agree that this is the best way to go with the current line-up.

I claimed after the Butler game that the Hoosiers were settling too much on offense, that they were taking the mid-range jump shot instead of driving to the hoop.  While there are still times where the quick jumper is ill-advisedly taken, for the most part, Indiana has become much more adept at attacking the rim.  This helps to account for the astronomically high offensive free throw rate of 49% (meaning that the Hoosiers attempt one free throw for every two field goal attempts), which is good for 2nd in the country.

That leads me to my final post-Butler complaint: free throws.  I know that it's hard to complain when your team is hitting 74% of their free throws, however, this shooting category has been streaky, and is somewhat inflated by going an absurd 41-45 (91%) in the last two games (Purdue and Michigan).  On the other end of the spectrum, the Hoosiers shot an abysmal 21-37 (57%) at home against Penn State, 26-40 (65%) at home against Minnesota, and 22-34 (65%) at Penn State.  While they did make over 20 points from the charity stripe in each of those games, and they do have the highest free throw percentage in the Big Ten, imagine what a difference very good free throw shooting can make.  Against Michigan, IU made 12 of 12 free throws in the last 1:42 (six of them in the final 40 seconds) to hold Michigan back while they made 3 3-pointers and a dunk in that same time.  Without those free throws, Michigan could have pretty easily clawed their way to a victory and the top spot in the Big Ten and the country.

Before I finish up, I want to give some updates on the individual players themselves.

Victor Oladipo - I don't even know where to start with this young man! He has remained the most consistent player on a pretty darn consistent team.  Somehow, his energy, passion, and intensity have continued to grow, something I would not have thought possible, particularly before the Michigan game.  He is lighting it up on both ends of the court, racking up the steals (2.5 per game, good for 13th in the country and top in the Big Ten) and deflections (top on the team) on the defensive end and the points and offensive rebounds (55, which is 5th in the Big Ten, and he's the only one in the top-15 who is shorter than 6'6") on the other side. I will admit here that as far as shooting goes, I was completely and utterly wrong about Victor (and incredibly glad about it).  He has the 4th highest true shooting percentage (adds weight to made 3-pointers and includes free throws), and is in the top 30 of Kenpom's offensive rating.  He is hitting 64% of his field goals, including 51% from 3-point land.  This is a an almost unbelievable jump from last season when he hit just 47% of his shots and 21% of his threes.  He is choosing his shots unbelievably well, and hitting the majority of them.  I will say though, that the shot which has caused the most excitement from Hoosier fans was the one that he missed.  The pure athleticism Victor displayed on that missed dunk was completely and utterly unbelievable!

Cody Zeller - As I thought would happen, Cody has, for the most part, stepped up as the season progressed.  While he did have a couple of games where he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, his numbers have remained constant. One of Cody's most impressive stats is that he has a free throw rate of 77%, which means that for every 4 field goals he attempts he also attempts 3 free throws.  That rate is good for 15th in the country and second in the Big Ten.  He's attempting over 7 free throws a night on average, and he hits 74% of his attempts.  Cody has also simply played at a much higher level, coming closer to the dominating force most people expected.  The perfect example of this came late in the game against Michigan.  With 1:50 left on the clock, Cody followed a missed shot which got tipped around and very physically cut through 2 Michigan players to save the ball and extend IU's possession long enough for Yogi to get fouled and make his free throws.  After putting on a nice put-back dunk clinic for most of the night, this was the icing on the cake for Cody as he continues to improve each and every game.  The one thing I'd like to see Cody do more frequently is pull that jump shot.  He's pretty accurate when he does take it, but he doesn't take it very often.  Adding that to his already incredible skill set will make it that much harder for opponents to game-plan and defend him.

Jordy Hulls - Jordy continues to be impressive in his shooting this season.  He continues to hit about 50% of his 3-pointers even with defenders keying in on him, and he's hitting 2.5 threes per game.  Again per Kenpom, Jordy has the number 7 offensive rating in the country, which also places him at the top of the Big Ten.  While his assist-to-turnover ratio has decreased some (that was pretty much expected as the quality of opponents increased),  he still has the lowest turnover rate of any Hoosier playing more than 20 minutes.  Now, toward the beginning of the season I pretty much hounded Jordy because of his defense.  But, after looking back at the season and the stats, Jordy is not playing as bad defense as people tend to suggest.  Don't get me wrong, Jordy is no Victor Oladipo when it comes to defense.  But the point is that he doesn't have to be.  With strong-defending guards in Victor and Yogi and a strong center in Cody, as long as Jordy can consistently keep his man in front of him, he and the Hoosiers will do just fine.  That is the beauty of a team sport.

Yogi Ferrell - Yogi has stepped up tremendously since the start of Big Ten Play.  Both his field goal and three-point percentages are significantly higher in-conference (49% and 40% respectively) than out (30% and 25% respectively).  Look at the games since the loss to Wisconsin and the numbers go even higher (60% field goal and 53% three-pointer).  Yogi's free throw percentage is also staying high; he is 5th in the Big Ten, first among freshman, shooting 81%, just .7% behind the leader, teammate Christian Watford.  Those free throws came in handy against Michigan, as he went 8-8 from the charity stripe.  He is also still averaging an assist-to-turnover ratio of over 2-1, and has the second-most assists (99) of anybody in the conference and is first among Big Ten freshmen.  On a very impressive note, Yogi is only a single assist away from being just the 4th Hoosier freshman to reach 100 assists (the other three are Verdell Jones III with 100, A.J. Guyton with 129, and Isiah Thomas with 159), putting him in very elite company with nine regular season games remaining.  Yogi has proven to be a huge asset on the defensive end, locking down on Player of the Year front-runner Trey Burke for much of the game against Michigan, and while Burke scored 25 points, it took him an unusually inefficient 24 shots to get there.

Christian Watford - Christian has shown steady improvement for the most part this season, and has not dealt with the extreme inconsistency from last season.  His field goal percentage remains low (it's actually lower than his 3-point percentage), but his free throw percentage has remained high, as mentioned in the discussion of Yogi.  This last stat is key, as Christian gets to the free throw line more often (about 5 times per game) than anybody on the team except Cody.  Christian has also been fairly dominant on the boards, averaging about one more per game than he did last season.  While I would like to see Christian improve his shot selection, it's pretty hard to be picky when he's averaging almost 13 points and 7 rebounds per game.

Will Sheehey - Will has had a bit of an odd season, at least as far as offense is concerned.  He's had six games this season where he has scored 6 points or fewer (including 2 consecutive goose eggs against Minnesota and Wisconsin), and in 7 out of the 9 conference games he has failed to reach double-digits, dropping his season average down to 9.9 points per game.  His intensity and edge, on the other hand, have been fairly constant, especially at Mackey Arena.  Will became Enemy #1 for the Boilermakers, trading taunts for taunts with the student section during the rout of Purdue.  Even though his scoring has not always been there (nor does it always need to be present with such a balanced offensive attack), his presence is always felt through his grit and edge, and especially the chip that always appears to be on his shoulder.