The Game Ahead: Illinois

Tomorrow evening the Hoosiers and Illini will face-off at the (fake) Assembly Hall at 7pm on ESPN.  Kenpom has IU as a 12-point favorite with an 83% probability of an IU victory, however, despite the similarity in name, this game is not being played in the extremely friendly confines of the (real) Assembly Hall.  While the Hoosiers are 4-0 so far on the road in the Big Ten, those wins have come at the less-than-daunting Iowa, Penn St., Northwestern, and Purdue.  While the Hoosiers beat the Hawkeyes and Wildcats by single digits, they defeated the Nittany Lions by 23 and arch-rival Purdue by 37 (the worst any Purdue team has ever lost to the Hoosiers inside Mackey Arena).

Now, Illinois has not been very friendly to the Hoosiers of late; Indiana has dropped the last three in a row and nine of the last 10.  Actually, the last Hoosier victory in the (fake) Assembly Hall was in February 2008, where Eric Gordon scored 19 points in the double-overtime victory, after he decommitted from Illinois to join the Hoosiers.  This trip has the chance to be different.

After getting off to an unbelievable start (13-1), the Illini have won only 2 games in the Big Ten (one of those was against Ohio State).  They have also lost their last four home games (including a loss to Northwestern).  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are playing their best basketball of the season and are the only remaining Big Ten team which is undefeated on the road.  They are coming off a huge win against Michigan and are hoping to be the first team in more than a month to hold onto the top spot in the polls for more than one week.  At the same time, this means that Illinois has nothing to lose and everything to gain.  After defeating both Butler and Gonzaga in the non-conference season, this could be their best shot at getting their foot into the NCAA Tourney door before it slams shut.

The game itself could be intriguing depending on which Illini team shows up to play.  In the non-conference, the team shot 39% from behind the arc, with a high of 57%.  In conference play, however, they are shooting 25% from three-point land.  Actually, just about the only category which hasn't suffered since the start of Big Ten play for the Illini is free throw percentage, where they've improved by about 3% to 74%.  The only Big Ten team with a better free throw percentage is, you guessed it, Indiana.

The best probable match-up this game offers is that of Brandon Paul and Victor Oladipo.  Paul uses an impressive 30% of his team's possessions and scores a team-high average of 17.4 points.  He also does a decent job of drawing fouls, getting to the charity stripe for a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of almost 50%.  He does, however, lead his team in turnovers (which isn't particularly unexpected in a guard).  Victor, on the other hand, is in the top 15 in the country in steal percentage and steals per game.  Also, in 45 defensive possessions against Michigan, Victor allowed his opponents to score only 4 points.  He's also averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds in addition to his 2.5 steals per game, but it's his explosiveness along with his newly-refined perimeter shot which make him extremely difficult to guard.  This match-up should lean strongly to Victor, but Paul can get hot at any time.

The rest of the match-ups don't seem to offer too much in the way of excitement, but either Jordy or Yogi will have to keep an eye on Tracy Abrams.  He may not be particularly threatening from deep, but he does lead the team in assists.  Down in the post, Cody should have a pretty easy-going night, as 6'11" sophomore Nnanna Egwu is putting up mediocre numbers after playing second-string to current Portland Trail Blazer Meyers Leonard (the #11 pick in last year's draft) all of last season.  He is averaging almost 7 points per game and almost 5 rebounds (which is a lower average than 6'5" Victor).  What could be the most important stat, however, is that he is averaging about 3.5 fouls per game and has fouled out of 6 games this season.  In comparison, IU has only had two foul-outs as a team, one each by Victor and Will.  This should be fun for the Hoosier big men plus Victor, as Cody is in the top 20 in the nation at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and Christian and Victor are not far behind.  If the Hoosiers were able to get Michigan (one of the best teams at avoiding foul calls) to foul 19 times (13 of them outside of the final two minutes), then they should have no problem getting to the line time and again against the Illini.  And, if the Hoosiers can hit free throws the way the did the last two games (41-45 for 91%), this game should be over before it even starts.

With all of this, the Hoosiers should be able to run their way right out of the (fake) Assembly Hall.  While Illinois likes to run, running with the Hoosiers is a game plan which won't offer much success for anybody in the country, let alone a struggling Illini team.  Even though the Hoosiers are on the road, I agree with Ken Pomeroy that the Hoosiers should win big, despite what will most definitely be a hostile environment.  The Illini have no answers for big men Cody and Christian, definitely nobody to control Victor (if that's even possible), nobody who can glue themselves to sharp-shooter Jordy for the full game, and no one to put enough pressure on Yogi to make him the least bit uncomfortable.  Throw in Will, who may struggle somewhat on the offensive end from time to time but is lethal on defense, Jeremy, who had arguably his most well-rounded game against Michigan with 4 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 blocks in 10 minutes, and the recovering combo of Derek and Mo, who are both veterans who can play quality minutes when tapped, and you've got a team that Illinois just cannot match.