So, I’m a numbers person.
When I want to try to explain something that is quantifiable, I turn to
numbers and stats. After the IU at
Wisconsin game, Justin Albers tweeted that over the last three games played
between these two teams at the Kohl Center Wisconsin had a 92-32 edge in free
throw attempts.
Now, this is an accurate statement, but my mind always wants
to dig deeper into the stats to see what’s really going on. So I did.
And what I found, well, let’s just say it doesn’t look too kindly on the
officials.
Remember though, this is just me playing around with stats
and it’s a really small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt. Also keep in mind that this is not the only
thing keeping the Hoosiers from winning in Madison. It just definitely is not helping them any.
So, onto the numbers…
The primary stat I’m looking at is free throw rate (FTR),
which is the number of free throws attempted (FTA) over the number of field
goals attempted (FGA). It’s a measure of
how frequently a team gets to the line relative to the rest of their shots.
In the last three games played in Wisconsin, the Badgers
have had a ridiculous average FTR of 64%, a full 24 percentage points higher
than their average FTR in all games over that time span (40%). The Hoosiers? They’ve had a FTR of just 18%,
20 percentage points below their full-season average FTR (37%).
Let me show you an example.
In the most recent matchup (2015-16), Wisconsin held a 37-18 advantage
in FTA. Wisconsin’s FTR was a ridiculous
77% compared to their season average of 40%.
The Hoosier defense (after this game) averages a FTR of 32%, making this
a 45 percentage point increase from normal.
Indiana had a FTR of 29% compared to their season average of 34% (the
Wisconsin defense also has an average FTR of 34%).
So basically, in these games the Badgers are being sent to
the line at a far higher rate than should be expected based on their offense
and IU’s defense. At the same time, the
Hoosiers are going to the line less frequently than their offense and
Wisconsin’s defense would suggest.
The worst differential actually came in the 2013-2014
season, when the Badgers saw a 7 percentage point bump at the same time as the
Hoosiers saw a 40 percentage point drop from their respective offensive
averages.
The odd thing is, this differential has been around to some
degree for the entirety of Coach Crean’s tenure at Indiana (seven total games
at Wisconsin), with the Badgers up 9 percentage points from average and the
Hoosiers down 12 percentage points from average. The last three years have simply exaggerated
a trend that was already there.
I looked to see if there were any overlapping officials from
year-to-year, and there were two with multiple games under their belts: DJ
Carstensen (2014-15 and 2015-16) and TV Teddy Valentine (2011-12 and 2013-14). We already know all about TV Teddy, but add
Carstensen to the refs I now never want to see on the court for IU games.
So what does this all mean?
In reality? Probably
nothing. Well, except that I just spent
over two hours looking at likely-meaningless stats when I should have been
doing homework or sleeping.
But it does seem to back up the narrative (and Justin
Albers’ earlier tweet) that the Badgers get a lot more free throws than the
Hoosiers when the game is played in Madison.
Maybe someday I’ll look at the games in Bloomington to see if there
really is a difference.
For now I think it’s safe to say that if the Hoosiers ever
expect to pull off a win at the Kohl Center, they’ll have to expect to play
5-on-8 for the night (and probably hit a whole bunch of threes).
And here are my numbers for good measure (in case anyone
else wants to look at them)
|
Year
|
W FTA
|
IU FTA
|
W FTR Game
|
IU FTR Game
|
W FTR O
|
IU FTR D
|
W FTR D
|
IU FTR O
|
|
2015-16
|
37
|
18
|
77.08
|
29.03
|
40.1
|
31.6
|
34.2
|
34.1
|
|
2014-15
|
31
|
11
|
64.58
|
19.30
|
36.2
|
32.8
|
22.4
|
32.7
|
|
2013-14
|
24
|
3
|
50.00
|
5.26
|
42.6
|
35.6
|
27.1
|
45.3
|
|
2011-12
|
19
|
10
|
29.23
|
18.52
|
30.7
|
34.3
|
29.8
|
44.5
|
|
2010-11
|
17
|
11
|
26.15
|
19.64
|
29.5
|
50.2
|
32.9
|
36.9
|
|
2009-10
|
11
|
16
|
12.50
|
32.00
|
32.5
|
41.1
|
36.1
|
41.8
|
|
2008-09
|
32
|
27
|
50.00
|
64.29
|
34.6
|
36.5
|
34.1
|
37.4
|
Last 3 Years
|
|
Average Differential
(FTR game - FTR season) |
Average Differential
(FTR game - Defense FTR) |
|
IU
|
-19.5
|
-10.0
|
|
Wiscy
|
24.3
|
30.6
|
First 4 (Under Crean)
|
|
Average Differential
(FTR game - FTR season) |
Average Differential
(FTR game - Defense FTR) |
|
IU
|
-6.5
|
0.4
|
|
Wiscy
|
-2.4
|
-11.1
|
Total Under Crean
|
|
Average Differential
(FTR game - FTR season) |
Average Differential
(FTR game - Defense FTR) |
|
IU
|
-12.1
|
-4.1
|
|
Wiscy
|
9.1
|
6.8
|
