The Hoosiers are two wins away from a share in the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since 2002. Coincidentally, the Hoosiers have two more home games left in the season before going to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.
First up is Iowa on Saturday at 7:30pm on BTN. Indiana won the first game against Iowa 69-65 to open the Big Ten schedule. Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo combined for 33 points and 20 rebounds, while Will Sheehey chipped in 13, Christian Watford had 11, Yogi Ferrell scored 9, and Jordan Hulls dished out six assists. Iowa had three players score in double-figures: Aaron White with 15, Roy Devyn Marble with 14, and Mike Gesell with 13.
The Teams:
Unfortunately for Iowa, Gesell, the team's third-leading scorer, will not be able to play against the Hoosiers with a right foot injury. This makes the task of knocking off Indiana in Assembly Hall that much more difficult. Gesell was averaging nine points, three rebounds, and three assists per game before being injured. As a team, the Hawkeyes are scoring 71 points per game on 42% shooting while pulling down 39 rebounds and dishing out 15 assists. They also get to the free throw line at a decent clip (not quite one free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts), but this does not quite balance out their poor shooting (including 30% from beyond the arc). The Hawkeyes do have a Top-30 defense according to Ken Pomeroy's statistics, but their offense has been fairly terrible.
The Hoosiers, coming off a tough loss at Minnesota where they were horribly out-muscled, are putting up 82 points on 50% shooting at the same time as they get 39 rebounds and 15 assists. The Indiana offense is a well-oiled machine; they are first in Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, are the best three-point shooting team (42.6%), are third-best at getting to the free throw line (almost one free throw attempt per every two field goal attempts), and have the eighth-highest offensive rebounding percentage (39.4%). The Hoosier defense is almost as good, ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and 17th in effective field goal percentage allowed (44%). The area which continues to be an issue for the Hoosiers is turnovers; they turn it over 13 times per game which is about 19% of their offensive possessions.
The Match-ups:
The two primary threats for Iowa are Marble and White, who create an interesting situation. Actually, the entire projected starting line-up creates an interesting situation; not one of the starters is under 6'5". This means that Jordy and Yogi will both be facing taller opponents, something which has not always worked well.
So, starting from the tall end and working down, Cody will be matched against freshman Adam Woodbury, who is 7'1". Woodbury is putting up not-quite five points and five rebounds per game, but does not draw fouls as you would expect of a big man and he hits fewer than 50% of his free throws. At the same time, he commits fouls at a very fast rate. This could cause the freshman some trouble, as Cody is one of the best in the country at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. Cody is also scoring 16 points and grabbing 8 rebounds per game. If Cody can force Woodbury to the bench with foul issues, his night will get significantly easier.
Next in order height-wise are Christian and White and Melsahn Basabe, and even though White is an inch taller, the more logical match-up for Christian would be Basabe. He scores 7 points and gets 4.5 boards per game and hits 51% of his shots. He is also not a threat from beyond the arc. He is a solid shot blocker and draws fouls at a decent rate. Christian is scoring 13 points and grabbing 6.5 rebounds per game, but the biggest difference is that he is definitely a threat from deep, hitting 49% of those shots. Christian is even better at drawing fouls than Basabe, and is able to get to the line more frequently (where he hits 82% of his attempts). Overall, Christian should do well in this match-up, especially coming off one of his worst performances of the season.
Coming next for the Hoosiers is Victor at 6'5", and he will likely be matched up with the taller White at 6'8". White is putting up almost 14 points per game while grabbing 6 rebounds. He is predominantly an inside player (he does not venture beyond the perimeter often and when he does he is not particularly successful). The thing that most stands out in his stats is his ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line; he is the 10th best player in the country at drawing fouls (seven fouls per 40 minutes) and fourth-best in free throw rate (a ridiculous 92%, so almost one free throw attempt for every one field goal attempt). Victor is also averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds, but also dishes out 2 assists and gets 2 steals while hitting a conference-leading 63%. Victor is about average in committing fouls, which could be an issue against a player like White because Victor is so energetic and ambitious in the way he plays. At the same time, he is not shabby himself at drawing fouls, and if White could find himself in foul trouble early the Hoosiers would be much better off.
This is where things get sort of concerning. Both Yogi and Jordy are listed at 6'0", and the two remaining Hawkeyes are 6'6" (Marble) and 6'5" (Oglesby). As the better defender (and actually one of the better on-ball defenders in the conference), Yogi will likely be guarding Marble frequently. Marble averages 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, and he draws fouls well at the same time as he does not commit them. Yogi averages 7 points, 3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, and is very good at dishing to teammates and avoiding fouls. It'll be critical to avoid fouls as much as possible, especially against a player like Marble when he has a sizable height advantage. The final match-up pits Jordy and Oglesby against each other. Oglesby is not typically a starter and will likely take the spot of the injured Gesell (who is 6'1"). He averages 5 points and 2 rebounds per game, but shoots under 30% both field goal and from deep. Jordy is putting up 11 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, and hits 50% of his three-pointers. He is also the best on the team at avoiding fouls. These two match-ups will be critical for the Hoosiers if they expect to win, and it has the distinct possibility of being a long night for the two under-sized guards.
Final Thoughts:
I truly do not see the Hoosiers losing this game after being defeated so physically by Minnesota. The Hawkeyes like to run almost as much as the Hoosiers, but that game plan has not been particularly successful for opponents, especially within the hostile confines of Assembly Hall. If Iowa can hit their shots, this could be a close, fast-paced, high-scoring game. If they shoot their averages, the Hoosiers should be able to make them pay on the other end, continuing to run up the score.
Hoosier Highlights:
Christian: Christian has hit 153 three-pointers in his career, which ranks him 9th all-time for Indiana. To move into 8th with Damon Bailey, he needs to hit 13 more before the season is done. He has also hit 477 free throws in his career (3rd), but he would need to hit 58 more to move into second with Steve Alford. Christian has 732 rebounds in his career (12th) and only needs 5 more to move into 11th place with Jeff Newton and 16 to move into 9th with DJ White and Kirk Haston.
Jordy: Jordy has 1,278 points in his career (27th); up next is Tom Bolyard with 1,299. He also has 349 career assists (14th) and needs 7 to join Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas at 12th. He has 71 three-pointers on the season (10th), and only needs one to join Kyle Hornsby, AJ Guyton, and himself (last season) at 7th and four more to join Tom Coverdale in 6th.
Victor: Victor has 1,021 points in his career (44th), and needs 9 to join Harry "Butch" Joyner at 43rd and 17 to join Jay Edwards at 42nd. Victor also has 64 steals on the season (3rd) and needs one to join Quinn Buckner at 2nd and 10 to join Isiah Thomas at the top. In his career, Victor has 147 steals (5th) and needs one to join Alan Henderson at 4th and four to join Greg Graham at 3rd.
Cody: Cody has 1,020 points in his career (45th), and needs 10 to join Harry "Butch" Joyner at 43rd and Jay Edwards at 42nd (for my sanity's sake, I'm not worrying about Victor and Cody passing each other, as they will be close to each other all season). He also has made 151 free throws on the season, and he needs 15 to join Damon Bailey at 11th.
Yogi: Yogi has 122 assists on the season (3rd for any freshman) and he needs 7 to join AJ Guyton in 2nd for freshmen.
