That's the Game: Maryland

There’s that Indiana offense we’d been missing in Big Ten play!  And then some!  The #23 Hoosiers whomped the #13 Maryland Terps 89-70.  Of course, this makes the Big Ten all the more confusing (and fun), but the Hoosiers now find themselves tied with Wisconsin atop the conference.

Indiana jumped out to a quick lead, in large part thanks to Collin Hartman, who had seven points in the first two minutes of the game.  Maryland would work their way back to tie the game at 26 with about seven minutes to go in the half, but they would go into the half trailing the Hoosiers by three.  That, however, was the closest the Terps would come the rest of the night, as the Hoosiers sprinted ahead to start the second half and never looked back.  Indiana hit 9-11 second-half threes (that’s almost 82%!), cementing the biggest victory of the season so far for Tom Crean and the Hoosiers.

The Good (and boy was it good):

• Play of the Starters.  Man were they electric!  They did pretty much whatever they wanted whenever they wanted to do it.  Yogi Ferrell led all scorers with 24 points, James Blackmon Jr. poured in 22 of his own to go with five rebounds, Troy Williams had 16 points and seven rebounds, and Collin Hartman scored a career-high 15 points.  Rob Johnson scored only seven points, but also had six boards.  This group also played almost 18 minutes together, an oddity for an Indiana team that likes to play fast.

• Collin Hartman.  I want t pull Hartman out for some special attention.  I’m sure when he committed to Indiana he never imagined playing center, but that’s where he finds himself a third of the way through Big Ten play.  And he’s succeeding!  Take last night.  He scored 15 points on only four field goals, going perfect from the field with only a lone missed free throw.  He also had an assist, three blocks, and a steal.  He’s actually a matchup nightmare for many opposing teams, as their big men have to try to honor him at the perimeter (he’s 15-30 from there on the season, 6-10 during conference play).  And on the defensive end, where he’s always going to be undersized?  Hartman is thriving there too.  In the last two games he’s helped to hold five different big men to eight total points and 10 total rebounds, and that’s with Marylnad’s Jon Graham having six of each.  In conference play, he’s surprisingly one of the top-10 blockers in the Big Ten… at 6’7”.  To say Hartman is playing well is an understatement, and his work earned him “Coll-in Hart-man” chants from the Assembly Hall faithful on two occasions, something I never imagined would happen coming into the season.

• The Shooting.  All of It.  By Everyone.  The Hoosiers shot 60% from the field, 68% from deep, and 78% from the line.  Ferrell was on fire (and that may be an understatement as well), hitting 7-8 from the perimeter.  Many of those were contested, too.  Hartman hit all three of his deep shots, Blackmon Jr. was 3-5, Max Hoetzel was perfect in his one attempt, and Johnson was 1-3.  That’s 15 made three-pointers on the night against the best perimeter defense in the conference and one of the best in the country.  I don’t care much about what your defense is like, if you come out and shoot like the Hoosiers did last night, you can beat just abut anybody.

• Ferrell’s Leadership.  A lot will be said about Ferrell’s shooting, but his leadership was just as important.  He had five assists and not a single turnover in 37 minutes played.  He spent the night making Maryland freshman Melo Trimble look like the freshman he is, something most opponents have not been able to do.  He also frustrated some of the bigger Terps on defense, preventing the ball from even entering the post.  Ferrell is a level head who really knows his team and does exactly what’s needed for his team to win.  And really, that’s what you really want most out of your veteran point guard.

• Defensive Free Throw Rate.  Unlike most of the teams that Maryland has faced, the Hoosiers were able to keep the Terps off the free throw line.  Before the game, I had this as the determining factor for Indiana to win.  Maryland is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line, while the Hoosiers are one of the best in the country at keeping opponents off the line, so something had to give.  And it wasn’t the Hoosiers.  Of particular importance was keeping Trimble off the line, as he came into the contest shooting an average of seven free throws per game.  Against Indiana?  He took only one free throw, and missed it.  As a whole, the Terps were 6-12 from the line, which is really low both in number taken and number made.  In fact, Indiana hit more free throws (14) than the Terps attempted, which was a huge part of Hoosiers’ success.

• All Gas, No Brakes.  Unlike the last few games, Indiana started both halves well.  Also unlike many of the Big Ten games, the Hoosiers never really let up and didn’t let their opponent go on big runs (like what happened at Illinois).  Once the second half started, Maryland was never really in the game.  Now, as an Indiana fan I’ll be completely honest and say that I wasn’t comfortable until the lead was 19 with about a minute and a half to go (and the student section was singing a particularly synchronized rendition of “Na Na Na Na Hey Hey-ey Goodbye”), but the Hoosiers showed the killer instinct they’d lacked much of the season, a welcome change this far into the conference season.

The Not-So-Good (what little there was of it):

• Defending the perimeter.  The only thing I could remotely come up with as a negative from the game was the fact that Indiana gave up entirely too many threes, several of them largely open.  The big problem was sticking with freshman Jared Nickens, who is the designated sharpshooter, the guy who has taken about four times as many threes as he has twos.  He hit 4-7 from deep, helping the Terps go 10-20 for 50% from the perimeter.  This is way above their average of 37%, and is also far beyond the Indiana defensive average of 30%.  But a solid job defending the post and the defensive ability to force Maryland to settle for midrange jumpers (matched with IU making 15 threes of their own) helped to mitigate the effects of the Terps’ good shooting.

The Final Word:

Huge.  That sums up the results of this game, one which was admittedly not a must-win for the Hoosiers (which I would not have guessed even just two weeks ago).  Indiana now sits at the top of the Big Ten after being picked to finish around ninth or tenth in the preseason.  The problems of the offseason are now a distant memory.  The projections had IU starting conference play at 2-4 at best, possibly even 1-5, but here the Hosiers are at 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Michigan State at the Breslin Center (a place where Indiana has even worse luck than in Champaign).  But the schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Hoosiers for a while, with trips to Ohio State and Purdue, hosting Rutgers, traveling to Wisconsin, hosting Michigan, and returning a trip to Maryland.  Indiana is currently projected to go 2-4 over this stretch (wins over Rutgers and Michigan), so let’s see if they can continue to buck expectations and shock the conference and the country.

**Noteworthy News**

With 24 points, Yogi Ferrell surged ahead of Daryl Thomas, Bobby “Slick” Leonard, Joe Cooke, Vernon Payne, and Marshal Strickland to join Victor Oladipo in a tie at 38^th in career points at 1,117.  With seven made three-pointers, he also now moves into 10^th place in career threes (153), and is now chasing Christian Watford at ninth with 164.  Five assists on the night also moved him into 11^th in career assists (367), surpassing Jordan Hulls, and he can move into the top 10 by joining Steve Alford at 385.

Up Next:

As mentioned, the Hoosiers travel to Columbus for a rematch with the Buckeyes, who Indiana defeated by a score of 69-66 just 13 days ago.  Columbus is always a tough place to play (as is any other road venue in the Big Ten).  The Hoosiers have won their three times since the 2001-2002 season, which is better than several other venues (think Michigan State and Illinois), but many of the losses came by somewhere around 20 points while only three of the losses were decided by single-digits.  This game will be played at 1:30pm on Sunday January 25, and will be shown nationally on CBS.

The Game Ahead: Maryland

Tomorrow night (January 22) at the ridiculously late tip time of 9pm the #23 Indiana Hoosiers play host to the #13 Maryland Terrapins (also known as the “Terps”).  This top-25 showdown is actually a fight for at least a share of first place in the Big Ten, as Maryland (and Wisconsin) are at the top of the conference at 5-1 and Indiana (and Michigan) are tied a half game back (Indiana has a record of 4-1 while Michigan has a record of 5-2).

If you're a believer in the transitive property (Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A should also beat Team C), good luck figuring out this game.  Maryland’s one loss of the season came at Illinois by a score of 64-57.  Indiana, on the other hand, beat Illinois in Champaign by a score of 80-74 (without starting center Hanner Mosquera-Perea).  Indiana’s one loss came at Michigan State with a score of 70-50.  Maryland, on the other hand, has now defeated MSU twice, 68-66 in double overtime at MSU and 75-59 at home.  To recap: Indiana beat Illinois (in Champaign), who beat Maryland (in Champaign), who beat Michigan State (twice), who beat Indiana (badly).  Isn’t the Big Ten fun?

The Teams:

Maryland comes into the game at 17-2 and 5-1 in Big Ten play.  Their big non-conference win came against Iowa State at a neutral site, although a win against Oklahoma State is impressive as well.  Their two losses came at Illinois and versus still-undefeated Virginia.

Defense has been the highlight for the Terps, where they rank 16^th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom.  They are particularly good at defending against the three (giving up only 28% from deep) and at not sending opponents to the free throw line (defensive free throw rate of 26%, good for 11^th in the country).  With free throw rate, it’s interesting to note that while they thrived at not sending teams to the line in the nonconference, it’s been a different story in Big Ten play (33.2%, good for 8^th in the conference).  They are moderate at keeping opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds and are actually almost as bad as Indiana at forcing turnovers (defensive turnover percentage of 17.6, good for 282^nd).

Maryland’s offense has also been fairly impressive this season, ranked 36^th overall.  They are exceptional at getting to the free throw line with a rate of 49%, good for ninth in the country.  Pair with this the fact that they hit more than 75% of their free throws, and you’ve got a dangerous situation.  They are also a good perimeter shooting team, hitting 37% of their shots from there.  In both the categories of turnovers and offensive rebounds, the Terps are mediocre, and have actually done worse in both since the start of Big Ten play.

The Terps have seen a bit of variation in their starting lineup during conference play, but also have a strong rotation that goes at least 10 deep.  Several guys are locks to be starters when they’re healthy, including senior Dez Wells, junior Jake Layman, and freshman Melo Trimble.  Fellow freshman Jared Nickens has also recently gotten the starting nod over senior Richaud Pack.  Beyond that though, there’s a little more question as to who the fifth starter would be.  My guess is sophomore big man Damonte Dodd, who has started 17 of 19 games.

The Hoosiers have had strength this season on the offensive end, ranked 13^th overall.  While some of their offensive stats have dropped just a bit since the start of conference play, they are still formidable because of the multitude of threats.  IU has been a good shooting team, with a field goal percentage around 55% and a three-point percentage at almost 40%.  They have also been surprisingly good at grabbing offensive rebounds (they are actually third in the conference at doing so) and at holding onto the ball (they’ve lowered their turnovers by five percent from last season).  They do a decent job of getting to the free throw line and hit a good number of shots once they get there.

Defense, on the other hand, has been an issue for Indiana.  The one area at which they have absolutely excelled is at not sending opponents to the free throw line, coming in just behind Maryland in the category (although the Hoosiers have remained constant so far in the Big Ten where Maryland has not).  Indiana also has done a decent job at defending the perimeter, and in conference play are actually the second-best team in the category.  The two areas where the Hoosiers absolutely struggle are preventing offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers.  In the case of the former, Indiana has improved their rate by 1.5% in conference play, and that’s after giving up a 50% offensive rebounding rate to Michigan State (and without Mosquera-Perea for two games).   Without that anomaly, the Hoosiers move into the top half of the conference.

The Hoosiers have had a fairly consistent starting lineup, with only three variations so far this season.  The most recent variation (brought about by Mosquera-Perea’s knee injury) has seen sophomore Collin Hartman grab the starting center spot (as a related note, he never even played at center until this year).  Joining him in the semi-frontcourt is fellow sophomore Troy Williams, who has been mostly impressive in the Big Ten.  Indiana features a guard-heavy lineup of junior Yogi Ferrell, and freshmen Robert Johnson and James Blackmon Jr.

The Lineup:

Melo Trimble (#2) 6’3” Freshman:  This freshman phenom has been the driving force for this surprising Maryland squad.   He’s leading the team with about 16 points per game while also contributing four rebounds, three assists, and 1.4 steals to go with 43% shooting overall (38% from deep).  He also leads the team in free throws, having already shot 138 this season.  He does tend to turn the ball over, but IU has not shown any penchant for forcing them.  The key to guarding Trimble is to force him to the left, as can be seen in the chart below (courtesy of Shot Analytics).  Ironically, he actually likes to shoot threes from the left-hand side, with those shots accounting for over 20% of the shots he takes.  He also really likes the middle three, where he shoots 18% of his shots and makes 47% of them.

Dez Wells (#44) 6’5” Senior:  The senior, who missed around four weeks with an injured wrist early in the season, is averaging almost 14 points and five rebounds per game, along with over three assists and 1.4 steals.  He also turns the ball over three times per game.  He’s hitting a ridiculous 50% from deep (12-24), but, in contrast to his freshman teammate, thrives on the left side of the court.  He also draws fouls well, and hits almost 80% from the line.    The key for whoever is guarding Wells will be to force him toward the baseline for the midrange shot, where he hits under a quarter of his shots.

Jake Layman (#10) 6’9” Junior:  Layman is the third Terp averaging double-digit points, scoring almost 15 per game to go with seven boards and 1.5 assists.  Despite his height, he is also a good shooter, fitting 51% from the field and almost 40% from deep.  Many of his rebounds come on the defensive end of the court.  Layman is second only to Trimble in the number of free throws he’s shot (107), and he also hits 75% of his freebies.  The sport where defenders will need to watch for him is the right wing three-pointer, which accounts for 12% of his total shots and from where he hits 42%.  Unlike many of his teammates, Layman hits his midrange shots, which could be particularly dangerous when (not if) the Hoosiers break out the zone defense.

Jared Nickens (#11) 6’7” Freshman:  The freshman has not started every game, but has found ways to contribute regardless.  He’s scoring almost seven points per game while grabbing 1.3 boards.  He also shoots well (around 40% both from the field and from deep), but doesn’t draw fouls or get to the line like some of the other Terps.  At the same time, however, he doesn’t commit many fouls of his own.  Out of any of the starters, Nickens is the designated shooter, as he’s taken almost four times as many threes as he has two-pointers (he’s actually made 11 more threes than he’s even attempted twos).  He really likes both corners, which account for 38% of his total shots, and he’s deadly from there as well, hitting 50% from the left and 60% from the right.  He likes the wings as well, although he is quite a bit less accurate from there (33% from the left wing and 20% from the right).  On the rare occasion where he does drive (at least when he takes the baseline jumper), it often comes from the right-hand corner.

Damonte Dodd (#35) 6’11” Sophomore:  Out of the starters, Dodd is the only one who is not a threat to shoot from the perimeter (as you could probably guess).  He is however, deadly from the paint, where he takes over 80 percent of his shots.  He averages almost five points and five rebounds per game to go along with almost two blocks.  He gets to the free throw line well, but he commits a lot of fouls as well (over six per 40 minutes).  For Indiana, Hartman and freshman Emmitt Holt will really have some work to do in the post to defend him.

Key Subs:

Richaud Pack (#20) 6’4” Senior:  Pack has started several games for the Terps, and still average a large number of minutes off the bench.  He scores almost eight points and four rebounds per game, and hits 42% from the field and 32% from deep.  He’s mediocre at drawing fouls, but he doesn’t commit many either.  His top shot is the left corner, where he shoots 10% of his shots, hitting 60%.  He is not much of a midrange shooter, and at the perimeter is weakest from the left wing (hitting only 11%).

Dion Wiley (#5) 6’4” Freshman:  The freshman’s biggest offensive contribution for Maryland is scoring almost six points per game, hitting 42% from the field and 37.5% from the perimeter.  He turns the ball over at a high rate, but he offsets this by not committing many fouls.  From three-point land, he likes the wings (29% of his shots, hits 33% from the right and 56% from the left) and corners (19% of his shots, hits 60% from the right and 36% from the left), so the game plan should be to force him to the middle.

Evan Smotrycz (#1) 6’9” Senior:  The Michigan transfer has had a solid season off the bench, averaging five points and five rebounds per game, and he’s actually taken about as many twos as he has threes (where he’s making only 21% of his shots).  He’s a good defensive rebounder, but he turns the ball over quite a bit.  From the perimeter, defenders should watch for the right wing, where he hits 40% of his shots.

Michal Cekovsky (#15) 7’1” Freshman:  The only reason I’m even mentioning Cekovsky is because he is really tall and Indiana really isn’t.  He’s a sporadic contributor who rebounds and blocks fairly well, but turns the ball over a lot and commits fouls even more.  He shoots predominantly from point blank and has yet to attempt a perimeter shot.

Final Thoughts:

The key for the Hoosiers in this game will be keeping Maryland off the free throw line.  In fact, against Illinois the Terps were held 15% below their average free throw rate and 11% below their offensive rebounding percentage.  As a whole, the Hoosiers will have to force Maryland into midrange jumpers and try to keep them away from the corner threes, where they absolutely thrive.  What should be interesting to see is how the tempo works out.  On the season, Indiana is the second-fastest team in the Big Ten at almost 69 possessions per game.  And even though they have slowed down a bit in conference play (66 possessions), they still rank second.  Maryland, on the other hand, is more of a conundrum, averaging only 65 possessions over the full season (good for 10^th in the Big Ten), but have raised that to just over 66 possessions during conference play, which puts them first in the conference.  Overall, a fast pace has favored the Hoosiers this season, so it’ll be interesting to see which still Maryland decides to play.

All told, Indiana is considered something of an underdog tomorrow night, even though the game is in Assembly Hall.  Ken Pomeroy likes the Terps by a score of 74-73 with a 44% chance of a Hoosier victory, and Sagarin, when accounting for the home court advantage, has the game as even.  The Vegas line opened also favoring Maryland by a single point.  This is an excellent opportunity for the Hoosiers to get something of a signature win this season, and Indiana has the tendency to perform well against ranked teams at Assembly Hall (which should be packed and rocking, if a smidge intoxicated thanks to the super late start on “Thirsty Thursday).  I’m going to put the score at 78-73 for an Indiana victory.  But if Maryland gets to the line at the rate to which they’re accustomed, all bets are off.

That's the Game: Illinois

The Hoosiers held on during a wacky game to win 80-74 at Illinois, just the second time in 13 tries that Indiana has been able to do that.  This was a game of runs for both teams, with fans unable to get comfortable no matter the score.  This was also a sharpshooting exercise, with a combined 23 made three-pointers with four different players making at least three shots from deep.  But when it was all said and done, Indiana walked out of Champaign with a road victory in conference play, something which is much easier said than done.

Now, about those runs I mentioned.  The Illini started the game on a 14-3 run by some out-of-his-mind shooting by Kendrick Nunn (3-3 from deep on the first three possessions), but the Hoosiers countered with a 14-2 run of their own, with Rob Johnson, Yogi Ferrell, and Nick Zeisloft hitting threes (two of them in the case of Zeisloft), to take the lead 17-16.  The Hoosiers would then outscore the Illini 17-7 to take a 34-23 lead before Illinois scored 11 straight to tie the game.  A couple Troy Williams dunks ended the half on a high note for the Hoosiers, going into the locker room with a 38-34 lead.

But those runs didn’t stop at halftime, no sir.  To turn the tables from the start of the game, Indiana got off to a 13-6 start to lead 50-40.  Then Hoosier fans everywhere began to panic as the Illini went on a 21-2 run to take a nine point lead with about 10 minutes remaining.  Recently, this has been a recipe for disaster for Indiana, a young team on the road in a tough environment.  But not today.  Instead, the Hoosiers ended the game with a 28-13 run (including 13-2 in the final three minutes), doing just enough to seal the game.

Six total players (three for each team) reached double-digit scoring, led by Nunn for Illinois with 24 points on 6-10 shooting from beyond the arc.  Williams and James Blackmon Jr. for Indiana both scored 21 points, Williams going 8-10 from the field and Blackmon Jr. hitting 4-6 from deep.  In a bit of a surprise, sixth-man Ahmad Starks poured in 19 points for the Illini, hitting 5-8 three-pointers and 4-4 from the line (as a reference, he was 3-21 from deep in Big Ten play coming into this game).  Malcolm Hill, the Illinois leading scorer in the absence of Rayvonte Rice, hit just shy of his average at 12 points, and Zeisloft had an important 10 points for the Hoosiers on 3-5 shooting from the perimeter.

The Good:

• The Play of Williams and Blackmon Jr.  When these two guys are on, great things happen for the Hoosiers.  Williams was a single rebounds away from a double-double, and also had a couple of steals.  But his athleticism is what really sets him apart, and was particularly evident on his putback tip-in which gave the Hoosiers the lead for good.  Williams attacking the rim does great things, not the least of which involves keeping the floor well-spaced for the dish.  Blackmon Jr., on the other hand, was deadly from the perimeter.  He was much better at choosing his shots (and not taking contested ones early in the shot clock), and he even had an assist on the fast break (something we have not seen happen much) which resulted in a three-point play the old-fashion way for Max Hoetzel.  Blackmon Jr. ended with seven rebounds, two assists, and a steal to go with his 21 points.

• Yogi Ferrell’s Leadership.  For the second straight game, Ferrell was held to only seven points in the game.  Last year, that would have been insurmountable for a Hoosier team that was completely reliant upon his scoring.  This year, however, that pressure has been lifted thanks to an influx (or the development) of scorers.  Instead, Ferrell was able to contribute with nine assists, just one shy of his career single-game best.  Those assists helped to score 24 points, with a particularly important one coming with just over a minute left when he stole the ball and passed it ahead to Blackmon Jr. for the layup to go ahead three.  Pair all of this with just a single turnover (the team only had nine on the game), and Ferrell was just as critical to the Hoosiers’ winning effort as were Williams and Blackmon Jr.

• The Physicality of Collin Hartman.  Just when you think he can’t be any more impressive, Collin Hartman goes and changes your mind.  His final stat line of six points, one rebound, and one assist may not wow anybody, but his defensive effort certainly has to.  He was given the assignment of guarding 6’11” Nnanna Egwu by virtue of being the biggest Hoosier out there.  This same Collin Hartman, who is more of a small forward than he even is a power forward (let alone a center), wasn’t even a big man on his high school team.  Yet here he finds himself the starting center for Indiana in Big Ten play, forced to play way out of his position, particularly on defense.  And how did he respond?  By helping to hold Egwu to zero points and two rebounds and forcing two turnovers before the Illini big man fouled out with just over two minutes to play.  Several of those fouls came when Hartman positioned himself perfectly on the rebound and forced Egwu to either attempt to go over him (and get called for over-the-back) or to shove him out of the way in frustration.  So despite what the stat book says, Hartman was huge for the Hoosiers.

• Bench Play.  Many members of the Indiana bench came ready to play as well, led by Zeisloft, Hoetzel, and Emmitt Holt.  As mentioned, Zeisloft shot the ball well right when the Hoosiers needed it most.  But he also did not turn the ball over once in 19 minutes of play and played solid, physical defense, even recording a block at the end of the game.  Hoetzel contributed six points in five minutes of play, but also got a nice steal in the first half.  He played with great intensity, and was perfect shooting (1-1 from deep, 1-1 for two, and 1-1 from the line).  Holt scored four points and had a block, but also played critical minutes against Egwu as well.  The one negative thing which could be said about Holt in this outing is that he missed a couple of bunnies, including what should have been an automatic putback dunk with the Hoosiers down four in the final six minutes.  But he is learning and developing, and his positive contributions far outweigh the negatives.

• Defensive Rebounding.  While the Indiana offensive rebounding effort was about average for this season, it was the defensive rebounding which stood out.  The Hoosiers held the Illini to rebounding only 14.8% of their misses (meaning Indiana got the rebound on 85% of the Illinois missed shots).  This is a full 13% lower for Illinois’ offensive rebounding, and it was 19% lower than IU’s season average for opponent offensive rebounding.  This is huge for an Indiana team which is going to be undersized for the foreseeable future.

• All Things Free Throw.  The Hoosiers have been great this season at keeping opposing teams off the free throw line, and that continued against the Illini, who attempted only 12 freebies on the game.  This gives them a free throw rate of 21.8% (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts), a solid 10% lower than their season average.  This was important because the Illini do not miss the free throws that they do earn (they hit 10 out of 12 today).  On the other end, the Hoosiers shot 20 free throws, hitting 15 of them (for the record, that’s more than Illinois attempted).  Their free throw rate of 35.7% was actually just below the Hoosier average, however, it was seven percent above what the Illini were allowing coming into the game, a definite win for Indiana.

The Not-So-Good:

• Guarding the Three.  Whether this was just a fluke shooting performance by Illinois (who was hitting deep and contested shots) or was indicative of a defensive flaw for the Hoosiers, the Illini went off today, hitting 12-27 from deep.  Nunn was particularly deadly, but Indiana should have expected him to shoot well (he was hitting above 40% from the perimeter coming into the game).  Instead, they left him relatively open on all of the Illini’s first three possessions.  But to be fair, Nunn was feeling it and sometimes there’s nothing that can be done.  The other Illini who as feeling it was Starks, who hit 5-8 from the perimeter.  This was far and away an outlying performance, as Starks was only hitting 14% during Big Ten play and 26% on the season.  Sometimes you just have to accept that a guy will go off randomly (or the blind squirrel finds the nut).  Either way, this type of defensive performance from the Hoosiers needs to be a rarity if they hope to stay toward the top of the Big Ten.

• Offensive Lulls.  At this point, this is getting a bit nitpicky to find things that were really wrong during this game.  But we have seen this season that no lead is safe with these Hoosiers, who can’t quite figure out how to stomp on opponents’ throats once they get their foot into place.  Where this team differs from last year, however, is that they have thus far done a good job of closing out tough games, even after starting slow and/or giving up a double-digit lead (or two, or three).  The fact that the Hoosiers have been able to close out multiple such games on the road in the Big Ten is a huge improvement.

The Final Word:

Exciting.  Any time you watch a game where both teams are giving up double-digit leads (multiple times), exciting is a good description (along with mind-blowing and frustrating).  But for stretches the Hoosiers played some of their best basketball of the season.  They never let the score get into their heads and just played the way they needed to.  Once again, however, the Hoosiers got off to a ridiculously slow start, even if they were able to overcome it.  As long as they can maintain this level of composure, it is not too much of a concern.  But when games like the visit to Michigan State come around and they start playing like chickens with their heads cut off, things get very ugly very fast.  For now, Hoosier fans should just sit back, relax (well, after forgetting how the Colts played today), and be excited that Indiana has stolen not one but two Big Ten road victories early in conference play.

**Noteworthy News**

With nine assists, Yogi Ferrell moved into 12^th all-time at IU in career assists with 362.  He needs four to move into 11^th with Jordan Hulls, but then needs another 19 to crack the top 10 (to tie Steve Alford at 385).  He also hit a three-pointer, keeping his strike alive at 49 straight game, which is the second-longest active streak in the country.  He also only needs four more made threes to move into the top 10 for career (tie Roderick Wilmont at 150).

Up Next:

The Hoosiers host conference-leading Maryland on Thursday January 22.  This is one of those ridiculously late games, with tip scheduled for 9pm, and it will be aired on ESPNU.  This is a huge game for the Hoosiers, who trail the Terps by just half a game.  Indiana will once again be the underdog (as has happened in all but one Big Ten game so far), but this is becoming familiar territory for the Hoosiers.  A win (especially minus Mosquera-Perea) could really boost the confidence of this young team.

The Game Ahead: Illinois

Tomorrow afternoon the Hoosiers travel to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (which is actually based on the local Native American tribe, the same one from which the state itself gets its name. This also means the “Hoosier” is the most vague of any Big Ten mascot.) at 1pm on the Big Ten Network.  This is a single-play game, meaning the Illini will not be coming to Assembly Hall this season.  Indiana does not have a good recent record at the State Farm Center (formerly known as Assembly Hall), where they are 1-11 in the last 13 seasons (with one season where they did not play at Illinois).

The Teams:

Illinois is 12-6 so far this season and 2-3 in the Big Ten.  The losses come to Miami, Villanova, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska (all of which are top-100 teams per Kenpom), and the two best wins come against Baylor (19^th) and Maryland (21^st).  The remaining wins are against teams with an average rank of 230.  But, the Illini have yet to lose at home, which could be the difference maker in this game.

The Illinois defense has been solid this season (ranked 52^nd in KenPom adjusted efficiency), particularly at defensive rebounding, where they’re allowing opponents to grab only 28% of misses.  They have also been good at keeping opponents from the free throw line and decent at keeping them from shooting well (defensive effective field goal percentage of 46%).  The Illini offense has been moderate, ranking 88^th in efficiency.  Their best offensive ability is that of holding onto the ball (they rank third in the country at turnover rate).  Other than that they’re moderate at best but have been particularly bad at offensive rebounding (28% for 268^th) and getting to the free throw line (ranked 301^st), although they make the free throws they do get (78.6% which is good for third in the country).

The Illini have had some bad luck when it comes to injuries, losing senior point guard Tracy Abrams to a torn ACL before the season even really started and senior shooting guard Rayvonte Rice to a broken left hand two games into the Big Ten season.  In the three games since Rice went out, not too much has changed statistically for the Illini, with turnover rate staying way down (including a ridiculously low 4.9% against Northwestern), but with free throw rate coming in around 27% (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) even with a high-for-them performance of 36% versus Maryland.  Since Rice broke his hand, Illinois has added Jaylon Tate to the lineup.  Joining him in the backcourt are Kendrick Nunn, Aaron Cosby, and Malcolm Hill.  The only true big man that the Illini start is Nnanna Egwu (who I feel has been at Illinois forever).

The Hoosiers are dealing with injury of their own, as junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea deals with a right knee injury of some kind (which will likely keep him out of the lineup for about a month).  Indiana has only been without Mosquera-Perea for a single game (against Penn State), but he was actually injured only the day before in practice, so the team didn’t have much time to work out a game plan for suddenly having no legitimate big man.  In that game, the Hoosiers started sophomore not-big-man Collin Hartman (he’s 6’7” but is closer to a natural guard than a natural center) along with Troy Williams, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, and Yogi Ferrell.

Despite some shooting difficulties, Indiana has maintained its high-powered offense (17^th in efficiency per KenPom).  Even with some rough outings since the start of Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are in the top 25 in effective field goal percentage at 54.9% and are 35^th in three-point percentage (38.7%).  They have also been grabbing offensive rebounds surprisingly well considering they are one of the shortest teams in the country (and that’s with Mosquera-Perea in the lineup).  The defense, on the other hand, has not been particularly impressive, ranking 189^th in defensive efficiency.  They have done a stellar job keeping opponents off the free throw line (ranked 15^th at 26.5% free throw rate) and at guarding the three (opponents are hitting 29% of their threes, which ranks IU’s defense 29^th), but that may say more about the shooting abilities of opponents rather than defensive acumen of the Hoosiers.  Their big area of struggle is forcing turnovers, where they rank in the bottom 20 by forcing opponents to cough it up on under 16% of their possessions.

The Lineups:

I’ve decided to switch from looking at “matchups” to looking at “lineups” because, at least until Mosquera-Perea makes it back onto the court, the Hoosiers are going to be exceedingly reliant upon zone defense to make up for being height-challenged.  This makes individual matchups less significant, although I will mention which Hoosier would be best suited to guard them.

Malcolm Hill (#21) 6’6” Sophomore:  With Rice off the court, Hill has become the leading scorer (and the only one averaging double-digits) at almost 14 points per game.  He is also tied as leading rebounder at almost six per game.  He’s a good shooter, hitting almost half of all field goals and almost 40% of his perimeter shots.  Hill also draws fouls well and has the best free throw rate on the team.  The Hoosiers need to watch him if he pulls up from the left wing (where he hits 50% of his shots), but especially when he shoots from either elbow.  He takes 31% of his shots from those spots (according to ShotAnalytics.com) and is hitting 38% from the right and 54% from the left).  The combo of Ferrell, Johnson, and Stan Robinson will see a lot of time against Hill, as all of them are capable defenders even if they are undersized.  I would guess that out of the trio Ferrell and Robinson will guard him more than Johnson because they are more experienced.

Kendrick Nunn (#25) 6’3” Sophomore:  Nunn has been a solid contributor for the Illini, with almost 10 points and three rebounds per game.  He also has quick hands on defense with 1.4 steals per game.  As with Hill, Nunn is also a good shooter, including 43% from deep.  He doesn’t commit many fouls, but he doesn’t draw them either.  The Hoosiers will have to watch him when he takes shots from either corner three spot as those are two of his highest-volume spots and he also hits at least a decent percentage (33% from the left and 58% from the right).  But until he proves otherwise, they can just let him shoot from the right wing, where he’s hitting a quarter of his shots.  Johnson is the Hoosier likely to see a good chunk of time on Nunn, as he is the second-best perimeter defender among starters and Nunn is the second-best perimeter player out of the Illini starters.

Aaron Cosby (#11) 6’3” Junior:  The third-leading scorer for Illinois is Cosby at eight points per game.  He also contributes almost four rebounds and two assists, and hits a respectable 33% from deep.  He has the highest turnover rate of starters, but that’s not really saying much on this team because nobody turns it over that much.  Whichever Indiana defender is on him should watch when he shoots from the left wing (which accounts for 18% of his shots), where he hits 52% of his shots.  On the other hand, he doesn’t shoot well from straight-away at only 9%, but he also doesn’t take many from out there anyway.  I’m not completely sure who will guard Cosby (outside of zone play) because there’s no Hoosier starter who is a natural defensive counterpart.  There is still one more guard for Blackmon Jr. to face up against, and both Williams and Hartman are both going to be needed inside to take on Egwu (hence the need for the zone).  All things considered, I would guess that Williams matches up with him, if for no other reason than Hartman is the more physical defender in the post.

Jaylon Tate (#1) 6’3” Sophomore:  Tate has been the replacement in the starting lineup for Rice, although he is far from the same offensive force, averaging just 3.4 points per game.  He does, however, dish out almost three assists per game to go with around a steal per game.  Tate also turns the ball over a bit, but again, not that much.  He takes a large portion of his shots from point blank and is not much of a shooter, as evidenced by the fact that he’s taken only nine three-pointers this season.  Blackmon Jr. will likely draw this assignment, as Tate is not much of an offensive force and Blackmon Jr. is the weakest perimeter defender out of the starting guards.  It is possible, however, that the Hoosiers put Blackmon Jr. on Cosby and Williams on Tate in an effort to free Williams up some to help double-team Egwu.  That could put more pressure on the freshman Hoosier to guard better, but that also may not be the worst thing in the world either.

Nnanna Egwu (#32) 6'11" Senior:  It seems like Egwu has been around forever, but I’m thinking it’s more likely that my brain is playing tricks on me.  But Egwu is not really a prototypical big man by any stretch of the imagination.  He’s averaging 7.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, but is also hitting 30% of his threes.  For a big man, he’s just an average rebounder, but he does block shots well, averaging almost two per game.  He also hasn’t done a particularly good job of drawing fouls at the same time as he commits more than his fair share of them.  He obviously takes a lot of shots from point-blank (where he’s deadly, hitting over 80%), but he also takes a good number of mid-range shots, particularly from the left elbow (where he takes 15% of his shots and hits them at a 44% clip).  Provided that Coach Crean sticks with the same starting lineup, this matchup goes to Hartman hands down because he has the physicality to hold his own.  If Hartman is not the starter, it’ll probably be Emmitt Holt, who would then have this assignment for the same reasons as Hartman.  Either way, guarding Egwu will likely have to be a team effort, as he’s going to be about half a foot taller than the guys guarding him.

Key Subs:

Ahmad Starks (#3) 5’9” Senior:  Starks has actually started a fair number of games but has recently moved to a reserve role.  He’s averaging seven points and three assists per game, and while he might not be much of a shooter, he’s deadly when he can get to the free throw line (93%).  He’s been shooting well from both elbows, but that also hasn’t stopped him from shooting threes, even if he’s not the most efficient from out there.  He doesn’t draw fouls real well, but he does commit them at a fair rate, something the Hoosiers could exploit.

Leron Black (#12) 6’7” Freshman:  Black is the second primary sub for the Illini, averaging five points and four rebounds per game.  He is a high usage player for the number of minutes he plays, and he is a decent interior shooter, hitting 72% of his shots at the rim.  He’s been a good defensive rebounder and draws fouls well, but he commits a lot of fouls (to the tune of seven fouls per 40 minutes, the worst of any rotation player on the team).  He has only taken three shots from the perimeter on the season, putting him squarely in the category of non-shooter.

Final Thoughts:

This is a tall order for a Mosquera-Perea-less team on the road against Illinois.  To start things, the Hoosiers need to just forget about forcing the Illini into turnovers because it’s just not going to happen, at least not to the degree that Indiana can bank on that as a game plan.  That means an added emphasis will be placed on offensive rebounding and not coughing the ball up themselves.  This may actually not be out of the realm of possibility, even without the Hoosiers’ starting center.  Additionally, Indiana will have to shoot better than it has so far in Big Ten play.  Some of this needs to come down to the shot selection of Blackmon Jr., who has been particularly inefficient.  He is hitting under a quarter of his perimeter shots in conference play, which is just below the 27% he’s hitting from the field as the whole.  Of particular concern comes when he drives (especially on fast breaks) and does not recognize that he has open teammates surrounding him, instead opting to go up with it himself, with it often ending poorly.  Now, Blackmon Jr. is a freshman and I’m sure he’ll start to get the hang of it, but the sooner he does, the better it’ll be for the Hoosiers.  Another concern for Indiana will be that Illinois will take this opportunity to change up their game plan a bit in order to hammer the post more, exploiting the Hoosiers’ lack of height.  If they can force Egwu into early foul trouble, that could help to deter this type of game plan.  If not, it could be a very long game.

By all accounts, the Hoosiers are the underdogs in this game, with Pomeroy predicting an Indiana loss by the score of 77-72 with a 34% chance of a Hoosier victory.  Vegas also likes the Illini by five points.  But I really think the Hoosiers come out strong in an attempt to make up for their last away game (the Michigan State debacle).  They have now had more time to adjust to playing without Mosquera-Perea, which should help to negate some of the difficulties they had against Penn State.  This will also be the first time that injured sophomore Devin Davis will travel with the team for an away game, and he has been able to join every practice since returning to IU for the spring semester (even doing some light passing and shooting in drills).  This could provide the Hoosiers with the extra motivation needed to win in a tough environment.  I think that Indiana will pull off a gritty 74-70 win, probably after a rough first few minutes.

**Noteworthy News**

Yogi Ferrell has now reached 353 assists in his career (still ranked 14^th) and needs only three to join Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas in 12^th place and another ten after that to join Jordan Hulls in 11^th.  He also has made 145 three-pointers in his career, needing five to move into 10^th place at IU with Roderick Wilmont.  Ferrell also has 1,086 points in his career (good for 44^th all-time at IU) and needs nine to move into 43^rd with Daryl Thomas and another three (so 12 points) to move into 42^nd with Bob “Slick” Leonard.

Quick Update: Classes have resumed

So classes have started back up at IU, meaning that my time has once again become a limited commodity.  For that reason, my posts will become a bit more infrequent (or perhaps a bit less detailed) as I dig into coursework.  But I figured I'd give a quick update of where we stand.

On Saturday, the Hoosiers knocked off the #22 Ohio State Buckeyes at Assembly Hall by a score of 69-66, with Troy Williams recording a double-double and James Blackmon Jr. contributing 18 points.  The Hoosiers struggled a bit on offense, especially early on (when they had five turnovers in under five minutes and were down 9-2), but their defense kept them in the game.  Key were Collin Hartman and Nick Zeisloft off the bench, who provided energy and aggressiveness which sparked the rest of the team.

Indiana now hosts Penn State tonight and are favored by anything from 8-10 points.  But we've seen how that goes, with the Nittany Lions stealing a win at Assembly Hall last year.  Penn State is now without John Johnson, who is suspended indefinitely, who was a key player off the bench, averaging around seven points a game (but had 16 in the Nittany Lions' last game).  The Hoosiers should be able to pull off another victory tonight, but as Wisconsin learned at Rutgers (yes, that would be Big Ten front-runner Wisconsin and Big Ten basement-dweller Rutgers), no win is guaranteed.

It also needs to be noted that Indiana's primary big man Hanner Mosquera-Perea will be sidelined for the next 2-4 weeks with some kind of kneecap injury (nothing has been officially announced by the team).  This is going to mean a serious increase in playing time (and importance) for Hartman and Emmitt Holt and could mean some time (although probably not much) for guys like Tim Priller and Jeremiah April, but likely only in case of extreme emergency.

That's the Game: Michigan State

So apparently I lied on facebook yesterday when I said I wouldn't post, but my flight's been delayed twice and I'm bored.  This won't be my normal analysis (read as little stats) because I'm doing this on my phone, at the airport.  But here's what I got out of the game.

Indiana lost miserably to Michigan State by a score of 70-50, and those 50 points are a bit impressive when you consider that IU scored a whopping 17 points in the first half.  And it could have been much, much worse, as the Hoosiers were down by 30 points in the second half.

The Good (if there is any in a game like this):

Yogi Ferrell.  Ferrell ended the game with 17 points, three assists, three made threes (out of six attempts), and only one turnover.  Those three assists are particularly impressive when you see that there were only two players to make a field goal in the first half: Ferrell and Emmitt Holt.  Was he perfect?  Far from it.  But he was by far the best player for the Hoosiers.

Turnovers.  Indiana turned the ball over only six times (five of which were in the first half).  This gave them a turnover rate in single digits, which is great for a young team and a pisitive sign for the rest of the season.

The Not-so-good (only the high, or actually low, points):

The play of Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Troy Williams.  These two played horribly overall and didn't see much court time, with both benched for the start of the second half.  Mosquera-Perea picked up two fouls in the game's first 90 seconds, a very bad thing for the height-challenged Indiana.  Williams never seemed to get his head into the game and reverted to his Invisible-Man game from Louisville.  Both will need to step up big time fot the Hoosiers to have any chance against the rest of the Big Ten.

The play of James Blackmon Jr.  The freshman has just looked off most of the last few weeks.  He's forcing shots and not hitting his open ones either.  What's really bad is his defense, where he allows drivers to get by him at will.  Yet he still played morw than 30 minutes in a game where he looked lost on both ends.  Perhaps some time on the bench would have helped and motivated him.

Offense.  And when I say offense, I mean the entire offense.  The Hoosiers were dribbling way too much and never really developing anything resembling a game plan.  Pair this with outright horrendous shooting and it's a recipe for disaster.

Final word:

Disappointing is a good word to describe the game, although disastrous would work as well.  The offense never really got going, even as the defense did a (relatively) decent job.  On the plus side, the Hoosiers have the entire week to prepare for their next game, which will be in the friendly confines of Assembly Hall.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers host the Buckeyes of Ohio State in their Big Ten home opener on Saturday Dec. 10th at noon.  As a note, as it will technically be the tail end of Winter Break, there will not be a student section, which will likely quiet the place down, particularly if the team comes out of the gate flat again.

The Game Ahead: Michigan State

On Monday, Jan. 5^th, the Hoosiers travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans (airing on the Big Ten Network).  This is the second conference game for each, with Indiana standing at 1-0 in the Big Ten after defeating Nebraska on New Year’s Eve, and Michigan State at 0-1 after losing a heartbreaker in double overtime to Maryland.  This matchup is one of Indiana’s five “double plays” featuring a home and an away game (the others are Ohio State, Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers), and the next time these two teams play will be the last regular season game on March 7^th at Assembly Hall.

The Breslin Center has not been particularly friendly to the Hoosiers, with Indiana pulling off a single win there in the last decade and a half.  That one win?  That would be February of 2013, when an outburst (19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, and a block) from Victor Oladipo led the #1 ranked Hoosiers over the #4 ranked Spartans by a score of 72-68.  That game was actually the first win for Indiana at Michigan State since 1991, showing just how tough of a place the Breslin Center is to play.

The Teams:

The Spartans are 9-5 on the season, with no particularly impressive wins (read as no wins over a top 100 KenPom team; for the record, I do not count a Luke Fisher-less Marquette as top 100).  Most of the losses have been respectable (Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, and Maryland), but one stands out as a head-scratcher: a 71-64 overtime home loss to Texas Southern.  Yes, the same Texas Southern that the Hoosiers beat by 19 at the start of the season.  If only the transitive property held true in sports (Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, therefore Team A will beat Team C), but of course that would make for an even more confusing time in the Big Ten this season!

Defense has been a strength of the Spartans, coming in 24^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings.  They have done a very good job at limiting offensive rebound opportunities for opponents (17^th in the country) and at holding down opponent shooting percentages in general and particularly from deep, where their opponents are shooting a paltry 28% (ranked 22^nd).  The area which stands out as a weakness is forcing turnovers, where the Spartans rank only 246^th.  The offensive end has also been strong for Michigan State, where they rank 49^th in adjusted efficiency.  They shoot the ball well, and can even rival Indiana from the perimeter, where they hit 40.5% of their shots.  They have been mediocre at not turning the ball over and getting offensive rebounds, and their major weakness so far has been getting to the free throw line, where they rank 298^th.  They average 74 points and 39 rebounds per game, and they play at a moderate pace (67 possessions per game), which falls right around the middle of both the country and the conference. 

The starting lineup for the Spartans has been a bit more variable compared to many Big Ten teams, some of which spawns from injury (Brendan Dawson was out for an early game with the flu and then fractured his wrist and was out for two games).  The only two Spartans to have started all 14 games are 6’0” senior guard Travis Trice (#20) and 6’5” junior guard Denzel Valentine (#45).  Dawson (#22), a 6’6” junior guard/forward has started nine games, but has dealt with the illness/injury bug this season.  Other guys who have started this season include Bryn Forbes (#5), a 6’3” junior guard, Matt Costello (#10), a 6’9” junior forward, Marvin Clark (#0), a 6’6” freshman forward, and Gavin Schilling (#34), a 6’9” sophomore forward.  If I had to guess a starting lineup against the Hoosiers, I would say Trice, Valentine, Dawson, Forbes, and Schilling, as that was the lineup used against Maryland in their conference opener.

The Hoosiers are 11-3 on the season, with wins over SMU, Pitt, Butler, and Nebraska, and losses to Eastern Washington, Louisville, and Georgetown.  The Indiana offense has been humming along to the tune of the eighth-best efficiency ranking in the country.  They have done a particularly good job of shooting the ball, especially from deep at 40.8% (6^th in the country).  Surprisingly, Indiana has also done well at both offensive rebounding (despite being a short team) and not turning the ball over (despite being one of the worst in the country at it last year).  This turnover rate has gone up a little bit in the last few games, but that also corresponds with an increase in the level of competition.  The IU defense, on the other hand, has struggled this season, ranking just 199^th in adjusted efficiency (which is dead last in the Big Ten).  The one area where the Hoosiers have thrived is in keeping opponents off the free throw line (18^th in the country).  Their worst defensive statistic is forcing turnovers, where they rank 322^nd.

The starting lineup for the Hoosiers has been stable since the second game of the season, and features Yogi Ferrell, Robert Johnson, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea.  While this lineup does tend to be short, it will match up well against the Spartans, who are the only Big Ten team which is shorter than Indiana.  This team has really looked to push the tempo this season, averaging 70.3 possessions per game, which ranks 22^nd in the country and second in the Big Ten.  With that increased tempo, they are averaging 85 points per game, which puts them seventh in the country.

The Matchups:

This is the type of game where Indiana could end up seeing quite a bit of time in man defense, as Michigan State is of a similar height.  That doesn’t mean they won’t play zone at all; they will switch between defenses all game.  So the matchups here will be a bit more important than games against taller opponents.

Ferrell vs Trice.  All three of the true guard matchups for IU need to show improvement on the defensive end, particularly in lateral quickness.  This includes Ferrell, even though he is the best of Indiana’s perimeter defenders.  He once again will take on one of the most important assignments in Trice (although he could also see time on Valentine depending on lineups), who is the leading scorer for the Spartans at almost 14 points per game.  At the same time, he is a phenomenal distributor, dishing off to the tune of almost six assists per game.  He also doesn’t turn the ball over much and doesn’t commit many fouls.  He is a high usage guy (24% of possessions while he’s on the court) but has relatively low shooting percentages (39% field goal, 37% from deep).  Ferrell will have to stick to him well because he’s involved with so much of Michigan State’s scoring.

Johnson vs Valentine.  As the second-best perimeter defender for IU, Johnson draws the second-toughest assignment, taking on Valentine, who also averages almost 14 points per game.  He’s also a good distributor, with around four assists per game to go with almost six rebounds.  He does turn it over quite a bit (almost three turnovers per game), but he’s a high percentage shooter, hitting 46.5% of his shots overall and 46.7% from deep.  He gets to the free throw line pretty well, where he’s hit 23-26 shots on the season.  Johnson will have to play a little bigger than he is, as he’s giving up about two inches to Valentine, but he should be able to guard him decently.

Blackmon Jr. vs Forbes.  As the weakest of the three starting guards when it comes to defense (especially lateral speed), Blackmon Jr. will likely guard Forbes, even if he is about an inch taller.  Forbes is also averaging double-digits on the season at 10 points per game while being a fairly low usage player (around 13% of possessions while he’s on the court).  He compensates for this by hitting a high percentage of his shots (48% from the field, 45% from deep, and 82% from the free throw line).  He’s done a good job this season hanging onto the ball, averaging not even a single turnover per game.  He also doesn’t commit many fouls, but at the same time has not had success drawing them either.  Blackmon Jr. should be able to take advantage of his size to guard Forbes well, but he has really struggled keeping opponents in front of him, something Forbes could exploit.

Williams vs Dawson.  This will be an interesting matchup, as Williams has been surging since the Louisville game at the same time as Dawson has been dealing with a fractured left wrist (on which he is wearing an air cast).  While Williams is about an inch taller than Dawson, the latter has about a 20-pound weight advantage.  Dawson has done well when he’s played, averaging 10.6 points and almost nine rebounds per game.  He’s also dishing off 2 assists compared to 1.7 turnovers and 1.4 steals per game.  Dawson also uses a lot of possessions (26% when he’s on the court) and shoots the ball fairly well at 47% from the field.  He blocks shots at a decent clip and draws fouls well, but he is only 11-28 (39%) from the line.  If Dawson were at full strength I’d likely give this matchup to him, but as he’s not I would venture to say that Williams’ athleticism will cause problems for Dawson to defend.

Mosquera-Perea vs Schilling.  Once again Mosquera-Perea will not be facing up against a particularly big post player, with no Michigan State player coming in taller than 6’9”.  Schilling has been getting the starting big man spot for the Spartans of late, although Costello has gotten several as well and Mosquera-Perea will have to play against both.  Schilling gets around seven points per game to go with 4.5 boards and one block.  He’s hitting 72% from the field but only 42% from the free throw line.  He does commit a lot of fouls, which the Hoosiers could exploit.  If the Mosquera-Perea who has been playing since the Louisville game shows up, he could thrive.  But if the Georgetown Mosquera-Perea shows up it could be a long night.

Key Subs:

Holt vs Costello.  Costello, as has been said, has started several games and could in fact start this one.  Either way, Holt will likely see time against him (and Schilling).  Holt is a bit undersized here, giving up 15-20 pounds, and has had games where he looked great and games where he’s looked lost.  Costello is averaging almost nine points and six rebounds per game to go with about one block per game.  He’s hitting 63.5% of his shots and 76.5% from the line.  He draws fouls well but also commits his fair share of them.  Holt will likely be called on to play a good number of minutes, particularly if Mosquera-Perea gets into foul trouble at any point (which has been more common as he’s played more aggressively), so he could be critical to any Hoosier success.

Hartman vs Clark.  The other key sub for the Spartans is Clark, who contributes seven points and three rebounds per game.  He shoots the ball well from deep (41%) and from the field in general (54%), meaning whoever guards him will need to be able to stay with him anywhere on the court.  Collin Hartman is just the man for the job; he’s a physical body who rebounds exceptionally well and does a decent job at not fouling.  Clark has also turned the ball over at a high rate, something which Hartman could exploit.

Final Thoughts:

Michigan State is always a tough game for the Hoosiers, especially at the Breslin Center.  This year will be no different, as the Spartans are higher ranked per KenPom (23^rd compared to 44^th for the Hoosiers).  Indiana will have to play a nearly flawless game in order to pull off the victory, including hit a lot of threes, limiting Michigan State’s offensive rebounds, and not coming up with many empty possessions.  If they do this, their offense can carry them over just about anybody.  But that’s a big if.

KenPom likes the Spartans by a score of 79-72 with only a 24% chance of a Hoosier victory.  He also predicts 71 possessions, so a bit fast for Michigan State.  The Spartans have yet to play a team which truly excels in a fast-paced game, so a sped up game would likely play to the advantage of the Hoosiers.  As much as I hate to say it, I don’t think the Hoosiers will be able to pull off a second victory at the Breslin Center in the last two-and-a-half decades.  I think Michigan State will too easily be able to drive to the basket, which’ll either result in easy buckets inside or open threes on the perimeter (the Spartans are the best three-point shooting team the Hoosiers have faced yet).  I’ll say the final score will be a bit higher at 82-80 in favor of the Spartans.

That's the Game: Nebraska

The Hoosiers squared off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers on New Year’s Eve.  And what a great end to the year it was, with both the Indiana men’s basketball team (70-65 over Nebraska) and the Indiana women’s basketball team (70-51 over #24 Michigan State) picking up wins in conference play.  Against Nebraska, the Hoosiers were able to overcome an offensive lull and poor play in general in the middle of the game to start conference play on a high note with a road win.  It wasn’t always pretty, but a Big Ten road win is a Big Ten road win.

Despite some early turnovers and all-around bad ball movement, the Hoosiers built up a lead, which was as large as 16 points in the first half.  This was in part fueled by the aggressive play of IU’s post players, with Hanner Mosquera-Perea grabbing some key boards early but also picking up fouls as well, only playing four first-half minutes.  The player who came in for him, Emmitt Holt, picked up right where he left off, getting six points, four rebounds, and a block in the first half.  A testament to the solid interior play of the Hoosiers was the rebounding, where Indiana outrebounded the Huskers 26-14 and held Nebraska to a single offensive rebound.  As a complement to this aggressiveness, freshman Robert Johnson hit several key shots from deep on a night when the Hoosiers struggled to shoot.

With just under four minutes to play in the half, the Hoosiers held a 38-22 lead and looked to go into halftime comfortably.  The Huskers had other ideas, capitalizing on poor shot selection and overall poor play by the Hoosiers to cut that lead in half, going into the halftime with a score of 40-32.  The start of the second half didn’t look any better for Indiana, who saw two straight turnovers and two missed shots before scoring its first points about two minutes in.  Within the first four minutes of the half, the Huskers had taken their first lead since early in the game, and had built their biggest lead of the half with about 15 minutes to play.

Enter Mosquera-Perea, who picked up right where he left off in the first half.  He ended the game with his first career double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.  Several times on the offensive end the Hoosiers utilized his athleticism, running a pick-and-roll ending with Mosquera-Perea dashing to the basket for the alley oop from Yogi Ferrell.  Indiana was able to once again build up a double-digit lead with about four minutes remaining, and once again allowed that lead to disappear, with the game getting within three points with a minute to go.  But a combination of a stellar play by the Hoosiers and stumbles by the Huskers allowed Indiana to spend the final 30 seconds at the free throw line, where they hit just enough to keep the game at two possessions.  That stellar play for the Hoosiers?  With only 15 seconds remaining and the Hoosiers ahead by only four, James Blackmon Jr. approached the line for his second free throw, which he missed.  Nebraska’s do-it-all guard Terran Petteway secured the rebound, only to have Ferrell knock it off his knee out of bounds to secure another possession for the Hoosiers (which resulted in one more made free throw to seal the game).

The Good:

• Aggressiveness from big men.  This has already been addressed, but both Mosquera-Perea and Holt played the way the Hoosiers need them to in order to succeed.  They rebounded well and defended well for the most part (save a few moments being out of position).  While fouls were an issue for Mosquera-Perea early, it was a sign of his aggressiveness.  This was a good outing for the big men, especially after the drubbing they got going against Georgetown and Joshua Smith.

• Indiana’s defense as a whole.  With one critical exception, the Indiana defense played well, keeping the Huskers just under their season average of 68 points per game.  They shifted fairly well between defenses, although they stayed in the 2-3 zone quite a bit.  The Hoosiers rebounded about 82% of the missed Husker shots, something they needed to do against a poor offensive rebounding team.  There were also several instances where the Hoosiers played very good defense for 30 seconds, only to give it up in the final five of the shot clock.  Many would see this as an issue (and if it becomes habit it could be in close games), but this Nebraska team is one which likes to slow down play.  In fact, only three Big Ten teams play at a slower pace (Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan), and all four of these games are single-play (Michigan being the only one at home).  This means that even an anemic Nebraska offense is more accustomed to playing this slow offense than the Hoosiers are at playing slow defense.  For now, very good defense for 30 seconds is all the Hoosiers really need (at least until they play any of the other three slow teams).

• Yogi the leader.  The last few games, Ferrell put the team on his back by way of scoring points on points on points.  Against Nebraska, he led in other ways, including dishing out eight assists compared to only a single turnover.  He was a calming influence for a young team, helping to make sure that his teammates did not lose their heads, and he made the stellar play to give IU another possession to extend the lead late in the game.  In the past, Ferrell’s only real option for leadership was by taking control of the scoring (even as he did against Butler and Georgetown).  Now, he’s got more players around him who can pick up the points, taking much of that pressure off of Ferrell and allowing him to do what his team needs him to do.

• Offensive balance.  Indiana had eight different players score at least five points, led by Johnson with 14, Troy Williams with 13, and Mosquera-Perea with 12.  Compared to the Georgetown game where three players were responsible for over 80% of the team’s points, this game had more of the offensive balance the Hoosiers have shown much of the season.  It’s this balance which makes Indiana so dangerous, as any player can go off on any given night and almost every rotation player (with the exceptions of Mosquera-Perea and Holt) must be honored everywhere on the court.  While it is great to watch three players score 20 or more points, it’s even more exciting to see a whole bunch of guys get into the action.

• Toughness/grit.  This point is somewhat debatable, as the Hoosiers gave up double-digit leads twice in the game and looked anything but tough over several stretches.  But the difference between this season’s Indiana squad and last year’s (other than shooting abilities) is toughness down the stretch, the general ability to close out tight games with a win.  And as I said after Georgetown, this could be the difference-maker in the Big Ten season, as KenPom now predicts nine of the remaining 17 games to be decide by five or fewer points, with only two (a win over Rutgers and a loss to Wisconsin) being decided by more than 10 points.

The Not-so-good:

• Shooting.  The Hoosiers had their worst shooting performance of the season, and the only one where they hit fewer than 30% of their shots from the perimeter.  Johnson was the best shooter, going 3-6 from deep, followed by Blackmon going 2-5 (both of which were from the right wing, where he is shooting around 70% on the season).  Ferrell and Nick Zeisloft each hit one, but took five and six attempts respectively in order to do it.  Free throw shooting was also a concern, particularly down the stretch, as the Hoosiers hit only 53% of their freebies.  Zeisloft was the only Indiana player perfect from the line (2-2), while Blackmon Jr. 2-3.  Three different Hoosiers were 1-2 (Williams, Johnson, and Collin Hartman), and Mosquera-Perea was an anemic 2-5 and Robinson was 0-1.  That means that Indiana left eight points at the free throw line in a game that was separated by a single possession with a minute remaining.  The free throw shooting should be concerning for the Hoosiers going forward, as trouble there is completely preventable.  The team should not, however, lose sleep on the off-night shooting from the perimeter, as 13 other contests have seen the team shoot the ball better and a low performance was bound to happen sooner or later.

• Blackmon Jr.’s shot selection.  Blackmon Jr. ended the game a paltry 2-9 from the field, both of them being three-pointers.  Now, I in no way want to discourage him from shooting the ball; that would actually likely be counterproductive to his development.  What he needs to do, however, is do a bit better job at picking his shots.  He was 0-4 from two-point range, some of which stems from the fact that pretty much any time he truly drives he goes up with the shot, even if it is contested and unwise.  He also had a three-pointer blocked which led to an easy bucket in transition for Nebraska.  Blackmon Jr. is better than this, and it is time for him to learn when to shoot and when to dish, something he is fully capable of doing within the remainder of the season.

• Perimeter defense.  The Hoosiers have had a rough season on the defensive end, and many people try to place much of the blame on the lack of a true physical big man.  But the first issue facing Indiana on defense comes at the perimeter, where opponents are able to drive at will, which would leave even the best of interior defenders vulnerable.  And this isn’t just one defender responsible, as every guard has had trouble, including the best defender in Ferrell.  To give guys like Mosquera-Perea and Holt, and even Williams and Hartman, half a chance to excel on the defensive end, the Hoosier guards must improve their lateral speed to better guard against the drive, because that is a weakness that any opponent, whether they play quickly or slowly, whether they have skilled big men or not, will take advantage of.

Final Word:

The Hoosiers did what they needed to do to earn a road win in the Big Ten, which will likely be few and far between around the league.  It wasn’t always pretty, and there were several instances where Indiana found itself in a lull.  But the team settled down and went back to playing their game every time, something which hadn’t happened in the past.  It was also an opportunity for the Indiana big men to be aggressive and gain confidence, which will be critical for the Hoosiers to have any kind of Big Ten success.  My guess is that they will follow up this poor shooting performance with a quality one, especially considering guys like Blackmon Jr., Zeisloft, and Ferrell are not going to be satisfied with their shooting and will have already hit the gym to get up shots.  This Indiana team, with its shooting abilities and new-found grit could be one which finds itself in the NCAA Tourney.  Or it could be one which limps through the Big Ten season on the way to another lackluster finish.  With the chaos in the Big Ten this season, I don’t think anyone could accurately predict anything beyond Wisconsin leading the conference and Rutgers finding itself in the bottom.

**Noteworthy News**

With eight assists, Yogi Ferrell moves to 342 assists in his career, good for 14^th all-time at Indiana.  He needs 356 to move into 13^th with Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas.

With one made three pointer, Ferrell has 140 in his career, needing only 10 more to move into 10^th place at IU with Rod Wilmont.  It also extends his record of consecutive games with a made three-pointer to 45.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers visit the Spartans of Michigan State on January 5^th at 7pm on the Big Ten Network.  The Spartans are 9-5 and are just coming off of a double-overtime home loss to Maryland.  I should have a preview of the game posted within the next few days.