Tomorrow afternoon the Hoosiers travel to Champaign to take
on the Illinois Fighting Illini (which is actually based on the local Native
American tribe, the same one from which the state itself gets its name. This also
means the “Hoosier” is the most vague of any Big Ten mascot.) at 1pm on the Big
Ten Network. This is a single-play game,
meaning the Illini will not be coming to Assembly Hall this season. Indiana does not have a good recent record at
the State Farm Center (formerly known as Assembly Hall), where they are 1-11 in
the last 13 seasons (with one season where they did not play at Illinois).
The Teams:
Illinois is 12-6 so far this season and 2-3 in the Big
Ten. The losses come to Miami,
Villanova, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska (all of which are top-100
teams per Kenpom), and the two best wins come against Baylor (19th)
and Maryland (21st). The
remaining wins are against teams with an average rank of 230. But, the Illini have yet to lose at home,
which could be the difference maker in this game.
The Illinois defense has been solid this season (ranked 52nd
in KenPom adjusted efficiency), particularly at defensive rebounding, where
they’re allowing opponents to grab only 28% of misses. They have also been good at keeping opponents
from the free throw line and decent at keeping them from shooting well
(defensive effective field goal percentage of 46%). The Illini offense has been moderate, ranking
88th in efficiency. Their
best offensive ability is that of holding onto the ball (they rank third in the
country at turnover rate). Other than
that they’re moderate at best but have been particularly bad at offensive
rebounding (28% for 268th) and getting to the free throw line
(ranked 301st), although they make the free throws they do get
(78.6% which is good for third in the country).
The Illini have had some bad luck when it comes to injuries,
losing senior point guard Tracy Abrams to a torn ACL before the season even
really started and senior shooting guard Rayvonte Rice to a broken left hand
two games into the Big Ten season. In
the three games since Rice went out, not too much has changed statistically for
the Illini, with turnover rate staying way down (including a ridiculously low
4.9% against Northwestern), but with free throw rate coming in around 27% (free
throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) even with a high-for-them
performance of 36% versus Maryland.
Since Rice broke his hand, Illinois has added Jaylon Tate to the
lineup. Joining him in the backcourt are
Kendrick Nunn, Aaron Cosby, and Malcolm Hill.
The only true big man that the Illini start is Nnanna Egwu (who I feel
has been at Illinois forever).
The Hoosiers are dealing with injury of their own, as junior
forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea deals with a right knee injury of some kind
(which will likely keep him out of the lineup for about a month). Indiana has only been without Mosquera-Perea
for a single game (against Penn State), but he was actually injured only the
day before in practice, so the team didn’t have much time to work out a game
plan for suddenly having no legitimate big man.
In that game, the Hoosiers started sophomore not-big-man Collin Hartman (he’s
6’7” but is closer to a natural guard than a natural center) along with Troy
Williams, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, and Yogi Ferrell.
Despite some shooting difficulties, Indiana has maintained
its high-powered offense (17th in efficiency per KenPom). Even with some rough outings since the start
of Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are in the top 25 in effective field goal
percentage at 54.9% and are 35th in three-point percentage
(38.7%). They have also been grabbing
offensive rebounds surprisingly well considering they are one of the shortest
teams in the country (and that’s with Mosquera-Perea in the lineup). The defense, on the other hand, has not been particularly
impressive, ranking 189th in defensive efficiency. They have done a stellar job keeping
opponents off the free throw line (ranked 15th at 26.5% free throw
rate) and at guarding the three (opponents are hitting 29% of their threes,
which ranks IU’s defense 29th), but that may say more about the
shooting abilities of opponents rather than defensive acumen of the Hoosiers. Their big area of struggle is forcing
turnovers, where they rank in the bottom 20 by forcing opponents to cough it up
on under 16% of their possessions.
The Lineups:
I’ve decided to switch from looking at “matchups” to looking
at “lineups” because, at least until Mosquera-Perea makes it back onto the
court, the Hoosiers are going to be exceedingly reliant upon zone defense to
make up for being height-challenged.
This makes individual matchups less significant, although I will mention
which Hoosier would be best suited to guard them.
Malcolm Hill (#21) 6’6” Sophomore: With Rice off the court, Hill has become the
leading scorer (and the only one averaging double-digits) at almost 14 points
per game. He is also tied as leading
rebounder at almost six per game. He’s a
good shooter, hitting almost half of all field goals and almost 40% of his
perimeter shots. Hill also draws fouls
well and has the best free throw rate on the team. The Hoosiers need to watch him if he pulls up
from the left wing (where he hits 50% of his shots), but especially when he
shoots from either elbow. He takes 31%
of his shots from those spots (according to ShotAnalytics.com) and is hitting
38% from the right and 54% from the left).
The combo of Ferrell, Johnson, and Stan Robinson will see a lot of time
against Hill, as all of them are capable defenders even if they are
undersized. I would guess that out of
the trio Ferrell and Robinson will guard him more than Johnson because they are
more experienced.
Kendrick Nunn (#25) 6’3” Sophomore: Nunn has been a solid contributor for the Illini,
with almost 10 points and three rebounds per game. He also has quick hands on defense with 1.4
steals per game. As with Hill, Nunn is
also a good shooter, including 43% from deep.
He doesn’t commit many fouls, but he doesn’t draw them either. The Hoosiers will have to watch him when he
takes shots from either corner three spot as those are two of his
highest-volume spots and he also hits at least a decent percentage (33% from
the left and 58% from the right). But
until he proves otherwise, they can just let him shoot from the right wing,
where he’s hitting a quarter of his shots. Johnson is the Hoosier likely to see a good
chunk of time on Nunn, as he is the second-best perimeter defender among
starters and Nunn is the second-best perimeter player out of the Illini
starters.
Aaron Cosby (#11) 6’3” Junior: The third-leading scorer for Illinois is Cosby
at eight points per game. He also
contributes almost four rebounds and two assists, and hits a respectable 33%
from deep. He has the highest turnover
rate of starters, but that’s not really saying much on this team because nobody
turns it over that much. Whichever
Indiana defender is on him should watch when he shoots from the left wing
(which accounts for 18% of his shots), where he hits 52% of his shots. On the other hand, he doesn’t shoot well from
straight-away at only 9%, but he also doesn’t take many from out there anyway. I’m not completely sure who will guard Cosby
(outside of zone play) because there’s no Hoosier starter who is a natural
defensive counterpart. There is still
one more guard for Blackmon Jr. to face up against, and both Williams and
Hartman are both going to be needed inside to take on Egwu (hence the need for
the zone). All things considered, I would
guess that Williams matches up with him, if for no other reason than Hartman is
the more physical defender in the post.
Jaylon Tate (#1) 6’3” Sophomore: Tate has been the replacement in the starting
lineup for Rice, although he is far from the same offensive force, averaging
just 3.4 points per game. He does,
however, dish out almost three assists per game to go with around a steal per
game. Tate also turns the ball over a
bit, but again, not that much. He takes
a large portion of his shots from point blank and is not much of a shooter, as
evidenced by the fact that he’s taken only nine three-pointers this
season. Blackmon Jr. will likely draw
this assignment, as Tate is not much of an offensive force and Blackmon Jr. is
the weakest perimeter defender out of the starting guards. It is possible, however, that the Hoosiers
put Blackmon Jr. on Cosby and Williams on Tate in an effort to free Williams up
some to help double-team Egwu. That
could put more pressure on the freshman Hoosier to guard better, but that also
may not be the worst thing in the world either.
Nnanna Egwu (#32) 6'11" Senior: It seems like Egwu has been around forever,
but I’m thinking it’s more likely that my brain is playing tricks on me. But Egwu is not really a prototypical big man
by any stretch of the imagination. He’s
averaging 7.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, but is also hitting 30% of his
threes. For a big man, he’s just an
average rebounder, but he does block shots well, averaging almost two per
game. He also hasn’t done a particularly
good job of drawing fouls at the same time as he commits more than his fair
share of them. He obviously takes a lot
of shots from point-blank (where he’s deadly, hitting over 80%), but he also
takes a good number of mid-range shots, particularly from the left elbow (where
he takes 15% of his shots and hits them at a 44% clip). Provided that Coach Crean sticks with the
same starting lineup, this matchup goes to Hartman hands down because he has
the physicality to hold his own. If
Hartman is not the starter, it’ll probably be Emmitt Holt, who would then have
this assignment for the same reasons as Hartman. Either way, guarding Egwu will likely have to
be a team effort, as he’s going to be about half a foot taller than the guys
guarding him.
Key Subs:
Ahmad Starks (#3) 5’9” Senior: Starks has actually started a fair number of
games but has recently moved to a reserve role.
He’s averaging seven points and three assists per game, and while he
might not be much of a shooter, he’s deadly when he can get to the free throw
line (93%). He’s been shooting well from
both elbows, but that also hasn’t stopped him from shooting threes, even if he’s
not the most efficient from out there.
He doesn’t draw fouls real well, but he does commit them at a fair rate,
something the Hoosiers could exploit.
Leron Black (#12) 6’7” Freshman: Black is the second primary sub for the
Illini, averaging five points and four rebounds per game. He is a high usage player for the number of
minutes he plays, and he is a decent interior shooter, hitting 72% of his shots
at the rim. He’s been a good defensive
rebounder and draws fouls well, but he commits a lot of fouls (to the tune of
seven fouls per 40 minutes, the worst of any rotation player on the team). He has only taken three shots from the
perimeter on the season, putting him squarely in the category of non-shooter.
Final Thoughts:
This is a tall order for a Mosquera-Perea-less team on the
road against Illinois. To start things,
the Hoosiers need to just forget about forcing the Illini into turnovers
because it’s just not going to happen, at least not to the degree that Indiana
can bank on that as a game plan. That
means an added emphasis will be placed on offensive rebounding and not coughing
the ball up themselves. This may
actually not be out of the realm of possibility, even without the Hoosiers’
starting center. Additionally, Indiana
will have to shoot better than it has so far in Big Ten play. Some of this needs to come down to the shot
selection of Blackmon Jr., who has been particularly inefficient. He is hitting under a quarter of his
perimeter shots in conference play, which is just below the 27% he’s hitting
from the field as the whole. Of
particular concern comes when he drives (especially on fast breaks) and does
not recognize that he has open teammates surrounding him, instead opting to go
up with it himself, with it often ending poorly. Now, Blackmon Jr. is a freshman and I’m sure
he’ll start to get the hang of it, but the sooner he does, the better it’ll be
for the Hoosiers. Another concern for
Indiana will be that Illinois will take this opportunity to change up their
game plan a bit in order to hammer the post more, exploiting the Hoosiers’ lack
of height. If they can force Egwu into
early foul trouble, that could help to deter this type of game plan. If not, it could be a very long game.
By all accounts, the Hoosiers are the underdogs in this
game, with Pomeroy predicting an Indiana loss by the score of 77-72 with a 34%
chance of a Hoosier victory. Vegas also
likes the Illini by five points. But I
really think the Hoosiers come out strong in an attempt to make up for their
last away game (the Michigan State debacle).
They have now had more time to adjust to playing without Mosquera-Perea,
which should help to negate some of the difficulties they had against Penn
State. This will also be the first time
that injured sophomore Devin Davis will travel with the team for an away game,
and he has been able to join every practice since returning to IU for the
spring semester (even doing some light passing and shooting in drills). This could provide the Hoosiers with the
extra motivation needed to win in a tough environment. I think that Indiana will pull off a gritty
74-70 win, probably after a rough first few minutes.
**Noteworthy News**
Yogi Ferrell has now reached 353 assists in his career
(still ranked 14th) and needs only three to join Chris Reynolds and
Isiah Thomas in 12th place and another ten after that to join Jordan
Hulls in 11th. He also has
made 145 three-pointers in his career, needing five to move into 10th
place at IU with Roderick Wilmont.
Ferrell also has 1,086 points in his career (good for 44th
all-time at IU) and needs nine to move into 43rd with Daryl Thomas
and another three (so 12 points) to move into 42nd with Bob “Slick”
Leonard.
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