Tomorrow night (January 22) at the ridiculously late tip
time of 9pm the #23 Indiana Hoosiers play host to the #13 Maryland Terrapins (also
known as the “Terps”). This top-25
showdown is actually a fight for at least a share of first place in the Big Ten,
as Maryland (and Wisconsin) are at the top of the conference at 5-1 and Indiana
(and Michigan) are tied a half game back (Indiana has a record of 4-1 while
Michigan has a record of 5-2).
If you're a believer in the transitive property (Team A beat
Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A should also beat Team C), good luck
figuring out this game. Maryland’s one
loss of the season came at Illinois by a score of 64-57. Indiana, on the other hand, beat Illinois in
Champaign by a score of 80-74 (without starting center Hanner
Mosquera-Perea). Indiana’s one loss came
at Michigan State with a score of 70-50.
Maryland, on the other hand, has now defeated MSU twice, 68-66 in double
overtime at MSU and 75-59 at home. To
recap: Indiana beat Illinois (in Champaign), who beat Maryland (in Champaign),
who beat Michigan State (twice), who beat Indiana (badly). Isn’t the Big Ten fun?
The Teams:
Maryland comes into the game at 17-2 and 5-1 in Big Ten
play. Their big non-conference win came
against Iowa State at a neutral site, although a win against Oklahoma State is
impressive as well. Their two losses
came at Illinois and versus still-undefeated Virginia.
Defense has been the highlight for the Terps, where they
rank 16th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. They are particularly good at defending
against the three (giving up only 28% from deep) and at not sending opponents
to the free throw line (defensive free throw rate of 26%, good for 11th
in the country). With free throw rate,
it’s interesting to note that while they thrived at not sending teams to the
line in the nonconference, it’s been a different story in Big Ten play (33.2%,
good for 8th in the conference).
They are moderate at keeping opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds
and are actually almost as bad as Indiana at forcing turnovers (defensive
turnover percentage of 17.6, good for 282nd).
Maryland’s offense has also been fairly impressive this
season, ranked 36th overall.
They are exceptional at getting to the free throw line with a rate of
49%, good for ninth in the country. Pair
with this the fact that they hit more than 75% of their free throws, and you’ve
got a dangerous situation. They are also
a good perimeter shooting team, hitting 37% of their shots from there. In both the categories of turnovers and
offensive rebounds, the Terps are mediocre, and have actually done worse in
both since the start of Big Ten play.
The Terps have seen a bit of variation in their starting
lineup during conference play, but also have a strong rotation that goes at
least 10 deep. Several guys are locks to
be starters when they’re healthy, including senior Dez Wells, junior Jake
Layman, and freshman Melo Trimble.
Fellow freshman Jared Nickens has also recently gotten the starting nod
over senior Richaud Pack. Beyond that
though, there’s a little more question as to who the fifth starter would
be. My guess is sophomore big man
Damonte Dodd, who has started 17 of 19 games.
The Hoosiers have had strength this season on the offensive
end, ranked 13th overall.
While some of their offensive stats have dropped just a bit since the
start of conference play, they are still formidable because of the multitude of
threats. IU has been a good shooting
team, with a field goal percentage around 55% and a three-point percentage at
almost 40%. They have also been
surprisingly good at grabbing offensive rebounds (they are actually third in
the conference at doing so) and at holding onto the ball (they’ve lowered their
turnovers by five percent from last season).
They do a decent job of getting to the free throw line and hit a good
number of shots once they get there.
Defense, on the other hand, has been an issue for
Indiana. The one area at which they have
absolutely excelled is at not sending opponents to the free throw line, coming
in just behind Maryland in the category (although the Hoosiers have remained
constant so far in the Big Ten where Maryland has not). Indiana also has done a decent job at
defending the perimeter, and in conference play are actually the second-best
team in the category. The two areas where
the Hoosiers absolutely struggle are preventing offensive rebounds and forcing
turnovers. In the case of the former, Indiana
has improved their rate by 1.5% in conference play, and that’s after giving up
a 50% offensive rebounding rate to Michigan State (and without Mosquera-Perea for
two games). Without that anomaly, the
Hoosiers move into the top half of the conference.
The Hoosiers have had a fairly consistent starting lineup,
with only three variations so far this season.
The most recent variation (brought about by Mosquera-Perea’s knee
injury) has seen sophomore Collin Hartman grab the starting center spot (as a
related note, he never even played at center until this year). Joining him in the semi-frontcourt is fellow
sophomore Troy Williams, who has been mostly impressive in the Big Ten. Indiana features a guard-heavy lineup of
junior Yogi Ferrell, and freshmen Robert Johnson and James Blackmon Jr.
The Lineup:
Melo Trimble (#2) 6’3” Freshman: This freshman phenom has been the driving
force for this surprising Maryland squad.
He’s leading the team with about 16 points per game while also
contributing four rebounds, three assists, and 1.4 steals to go with 43%
shooting overall (38% from deep). He
also leads the team in free throws, having already shot 138 this season. He does tend to turn the ball over, but IU
has not shown any penchant for forcing them.
The key to guarding Trimble is to force him to the left, as can be seen
in the chart below (courtesy of Shot Analytics). Ironically, he actually likes to shoot threes
from the left-hand side, with those shots accounting for over 20% of the shots
he takes. He also really likes the
middle three, where he shoots 18% of his shots and makes 47% of them.
Dez Wells (#44) 6’5” Senior:
The senior, who missed around four weeks with an injured wrist early in
the season, is averaging almost 14 points and five rebounds per game, along with
over three assists and 1.4 steals. He
also turns the ball over three times per game.
He’s hitting a ridiculous 50% from deep (12-24), but, in contrast to his
freshman teammate, thrives on the left side of the court. He also draws fouls well, and hits almost 80%
from the line. The key for whoever is guarding Wells will be
to force him toward the baseline for the midrange shot, where he hits under a
quarter of his shots.
Jake Layman (#10) 6’9” Junior: Layman is the third Terp averaging
double-digit points, scoring almost 15 per game to go with seven boards and 1.5
assists. Despite his height, he is also
a good shooter, fitting 51% from the field and almost 40% from deep. Many of his rebounds come on the defensive
end of the court. Layman is second only
to Trimble in the number of free throws he’s shot (107), and he also hits 75%
of his freebies. The sport where
defenders will need to watch for him is the right wing three-pointer, which
accounts for 12% of his total shots and from where he hits 42%. Unlike many of his teammates, Layman hits his
midrange shots, which could be particularly dangerous when (not if) the
Hoosiers break out the zone defense.
Jared Nickens (#11) 6’7” Freshman: The freshman has not started every game, but
has found ways to contribute regardless.
He’s scoring almost seven points per game while grabbing 1.3
boards. He also shoots well (around 40%
both from the field and from deep), but doesn’t draw fouls or get to the line
like some of the other Terps. At the
same time, however, he doesn’t commit many fouls of his own. Out of any of the starters, Nickens is the
designated shooter, as he’s taken almost four times as many threes as he has
two-pointers (he’s actually made 11 more threes than he’s even attempted twos).
He really likes both corners, which
account for 38% of his total shots, and he’s deadly from there as well, hitting
50% from the left and 60% from the right.
He likes the wings as well, although he is quite a bit less accurate
from there (33% from the left wing and 20% from the right). On the rare occasion where he does drive (at
least when he takes the baseline jumper), it often comes from the right-hand
corner.
Damonte Dodd (#35) 6’11” Sophomore: Out of the starters, Dodd is the only one who
is not a threat to shoot from the perimeter (as you could probably guess). He is however, deadly from the paint, where
he takes over 80 percent of his shots.
He averages almost five points and five rebounds per game to go along
with almost two blocks. He gets to the
free throw line well, but he commits a lot of fouls as well (over six per 40
minutes). For Indiana, Hartman and
freshman Emmitt Holt will really have some work to do in the post to defend
him.
Key Subs:
Richaud Pack (#20) 6’4” Senior: Pack has started several games for the Terps,
and still average a large number of minutes off the bench. He scores almost eight points and four
rebounds per game, and hits 42% from the field and 32% from deep. He’s mediocre at drawing fouls, but he doesn’t
commit many either. His top shot is the
left corner, where he shoots 10% of his shots, hitting 60%. He is not much of a midrange shooter, and at
the perimeter is weakest from the left wing (hitting only 11%).
Dion Wiley (#5) 6’4” Freshman: The freshman’s biggest offensive contribution
for Maryland is scoring almost six points per game, hitting 42% from the field
and 37.5% from the perimeter. He turns
the ball over at a high rate, but he offsets this by not committing many
fouls. From three-point land, he likes
the wings (29% of his shots, hits 33% from the right and 56% from the left) and
corners (19% of his shots, hits 60% from the right and 36% from the left), so
the game plan should be to force him to the middle.
Evan Smotrycz (#1) 6’9” Senior: The Michigan transfer has had a solid season
off the bench, averaging five points and five rebounds per game, and he’s
actually taken about as many twos as he has threes (where he’s making only 21%
of his shots). He’s a good defensive
rebounder, but he turns the ball over quite a bit. From the perimeter, defenders should watch
for the right wing, where he hits 40% of his shots.
Michal Cekovsky (#15) 7’1” Freshman: The only reason I’m even mentioning Cekovsky
is because he is really tall and Indiana really isn’t. He’s a sporadic contributor who rebounds and
blocks fairly well, but turns the ball over a lot and commits fouls even
more. He shoots predominantly from point
blank and has yet to attempt a perimeter shot.
Final Thoughts:
The key for the Hoosiers in this game will be keeping
Maryland off the free throw line. In
fact, against Illinois the Terps were held 15% below their average free throw
rate and 11% below their offensive rebounding percentage. As a whole, the Hoosiers will have to force
Maryland into midrange jumpers and try to keep them away from the corner
threes, where they absolutely thrive.
What should be interesting to see is how the tempo works out. On the season, Indiana is the second-fastest
team in the Big Ten at almost 69 possessions per game. And even though they have slowed down a bit
in conference play (66 possessions), they still rank second. Maryland, on the other hand, is more of a
conundrum, averaging only 65 possessions over the full season (good for 10th
in the Big Ten), but have raised that to just over 66 possessions during
conference play, which puts them first in the conference. Overall, a fast pace has favored the Hoosiers
this season, so it’ll be interesting to see which still Maryland decides to
play.
All told, Indiana is considered something of an underdog
tomorrow night, even though the game is in Assembly Hall. Ken Pomeroy likes the Terps by a score of
74-73 with a 44% chance of a Hoosier victory, and Sagarin, when accounting for
the home court advantage, has the game as even.
The Vegas line opened also favoring Maryland by a single point. This is an excellent opportunity for the
Hoosiers to get something of a signature win this season, and Indiana has the
tendency to perform well against ranked teams at Assembly Hall (which should be
packed and rocking, if a smidge intoxicated thanks to the super late start on “Thirsty
Thursday). I’m going to put the score at
78-73 for an Indiana victory. But if
Maryland gets to the line at the rate to which they’re accustomed, all bets are
off.
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