On Monday, Jan. 5th, the Hoosiers travel to East
Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans (airing on the Big Ten Network). This is the second conference game for each,
with Indiana standing at 1-0 in the Big Ten after defeating Nebraska on New
Year’s Eve, and Michigan State at 0-1 after losing a heartbreaker in double
overtime to Maryland. This matchup is
one of Indiana’s five “double plays” featuring a home and an away game (the
others are Ohio State, Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers), and the next time these
two teams play will be the last regular season game on March 7th at
Assembly Hall.
The Breslin Center has not been particularly friendly to the
Hoosiers, with Indiana pulling off a single win there in the last decade and a
half. That one win? That would be February of 2013, when an
outburst (19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, and a block) from Victor
Oladipo led the #1 ranked Hoosiers over the #4 ranked Spartans by a score of
72-68. That game was actually the first
win for Indiana at Michigan State since 1991, showing just how tough of a place
the Breslin Center is to play.
The Teams:
The Spartans are 9-5 on the season, with no particularly
impressive wins (read as no wins over a top 100 KenPom team; for the record, I
do not count a Luke Fisher-less Marquette as top 100). Most of the losses have been respectable
(Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, and Maryland), but one stands out as a head-scratcher:
a 71-64 overtime home loss to Texas Southern.
Yes, the same Texas Southern that the Hoosiers beat by 19 at the start
of the season. If only the transitive
property held true in sports (Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, therefore
Team A will beat Team C), but of course that would make for an even more
confusing time in the Big Ten this season!
Defense has been a strength of the Spartans, coming in 24th
in the KenPom efficiency rankings. They
have done a very good job at limiting offensive rebound opportunities for
opponents (17th in the country) and at holding down opponent
shooting percentages in general and particularly from deep, where their opponents
are shooting a paltry 28% (ranked 22nd). The area which stands out as a weakness is
forcing turnovers, where the Spartans rank only 246th. The offensive end has also been strong for
Michigan State, where they rank 49th in adjusted efficiency. They shoot the ball well, and can even rival
Indiana from the perimeter, where they hit 40.5% of their shots. They have been mediocre at not turning the
ball over and getting offensive rebounds, and their major weakness so far has
been getting to the free throw line, where they rank 298th. They average 74 points and 39 rebounds per
game, and they play at a moderate pace (67 possessions per game), which falls
right around the middle of both the country and the conference.
The starting lineup for the Spartans has been a bit more
variable compared to many Big Ten teams, some of which spawns from injury (Brendan
Dawson was out for an early game with the flu and then fractured his wrist and
was out for two games). The only two
Spartans to have started all 14 games are 6’0” senior guard Travis Trice (#20)
and 6’5” junior guard Denzel Valentine (#45).
Dawson (#22), a 6’6” junior guard/forward has started nine games, but
has dealt with the illness/injury bug this season. Other guys who have started this season
include Bryn Forbes (#5), a 6’3” junior guard, Matt Costello (#10), a 6’9”
junior forward, Marvin Clark (#0), a 6’6” freshman forward, and Gavin Schilling
(#34), a 6’9” sophomore forward. If I
had to guess a starting lineup against the Hoosiers, I would say Trice,
Valentine, Dawson, Forbes, and Schilling, as that was the lineup used against
Maryland in their conference opener.
The Hoosiers are 11-3 on the season, with wins over SMU,
Pitt, Butler, and Nebraska, and losses to Eastern Washington, Louisville, and
Georgetown. The Indiana offense has been
humming along to the tune of the eighth-best efficiency ranking in the
country. They have done a particularly
good job of shooting the ball, especially from deep at 40.8% (6th in
the country). Surprisingly, Indiana has also
done well at both offensive rebounding (despite being a short team) and not
turning the ball over (despite being one of the worst in the country at it last
year). This turnover rate has gone up a
little bit in the last few games, but that also corresponds with an increase in
the level of competition. The IU
defense, on the other hand, has struggled this season, ranking just 199th
in adjusted efficiency (which is dead last in the Big Ten). The one area where the Hoosiers have thrived
is in keeping opponents off the free throw line (18th in the
country). Their worst defensive
statistic is forcing turnovers, where they rank 322nd.
The starting lineup for the Hoosiers has been stable since
the second game of the season, and features Yogi Ferrell, Robert Johnson, James
Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea. While this lineup does tend to be short, it
will match up well against the Spartans, who are the only Big Ten team which is
shorter than Indiana. This team has
really looked to push the tempo this season, averaging 70.3 possessions per
game, which ranks 22nd in the country and second in the Big Ten. With that increased tempo, they are averaging
85 points per game, which puts them seventh in the country.
The Matchups:
This is the type of game where Indiana could end up seeing
quite a bit of time in man defense, as Michigan State is of a similar
height. That doesn’t mean they won’t
play zone at all; they will switch between defenses all game. So the matchups here will be a bit more
important than games against taller opponents.
Ferrell vs Trice. All three of the true guard matchups for
IU need to show improvement on the defensive end, particularly in lateral
quickness. This includes Ferrell, even
though he is the best of Indiana’s perimeter defenders. He once again will take on one of the most
important assignments in Trice (although he could also see time on Valentine
depending on lineups), who is the leading scorer for the Spartans at almost 14
points per game. At the same time, he is
a phenomenal distributor, dishing off to the tune of almost six assists per
game. He also doesn’t turn the ball over
much and doesn’t commit many fouls. He
is a high usage guy (24% of possessions while he’s on the court) but has relatively
low shooting percentages (39% field goal, 37% from deep). Ferrell will have to stick to him well
because he’s involved with so much of Michigan State’s scoring.
Johnson vs Valentine. As the second-best perimeter defender for
IU, Johnson draws the second-toughest assignment, taking on Valentine, who also
averages almost 14 points per game. He’s
also a good distributor, with around four assists per game to go with almost
six rebounds. He does turn it over quite
a bit (almost three turnovers per game), but he’s a high percentage shooter,
hitting 46.5% of his shots overall and 46.7% from deep. He gets to the free throw line pretty well,
where he’s hit 23-26 shots on the season.
Johnson will have to play a little bigger than he is, as he’s giving up
about two inches to Valentine, but he should be able to guard him decently.
Blackmon Jr. vs
Forbes. As the weakest of the three
starting guards when it comes to defense (especially lateral speed), Blackmon
Jr. will likely guard Forbes, even if he is about an inch taller. Forbes is also averaging double-digits on the
season at 10 points per game while being a fairly low usage player (around 13%
of possessions while he’s on the court).
He compensates for this by hitting a high percentage of his shots (48%
from the field, 45% from deep, and 82% from the free throw line). He’s done a good job this season hanging onto
the ball, averaging not even a single turnover per game. He also doesn’t commit many fouls, but at the
same time has not had success drawing them either. Blackmon Jr. should be able to take advantage
of his size to guard Forbes well, but he has really struggled keeping opponents
in front of him, something Forbes could exploit.
Williams vs Dawson. This will be an interesting matchup, as
Williams has been surging since the Louisville game at the same time as Dawson
has been dealing with a fractured left wrist (on which he is wearing an air
cast). While Williams is about an inch
taller than Dawson, the latter has about a 20-pound weight advantage. Dawson has done well when he’s played,
averaging 10.6 points and almost nine rebounds per game. He’s also dishing off 2 assists compared to
1.7 turnovers and 1.4 steals per game.
Dawson also uses a lot of possessions (26% when he’s on the court) and
shoots the ball fairly well at 47% from the field. He blocks shots at a decent clip and draws
fouls well, but he is only 11-28 (39%) from the line. If Dawson were at full strength I’d likely
give this matchup to him, but as he’s not I would venture to say that Williams’
athleticism will cause problems for Dawson to defend.
Mosquera-Perea vs
Schilling. Once again Mosquera-Perea
will not be facing up against a particularly big post player, with no Michigan
State player coming in taller than 6’9”.
Schilling has been getting the starting big man spot for the Spartans of
late, although Costello has gotten several as well and Mosquera-Perea will have
to play against both. Schilling gets
around seven points per game to go with 4.5 boards and one block. He’s hitting 72% from the field but only 42%
from the free throw line. He does commit
a lot of fouls, which the Hoosiers could exploit. If the Mosquera-Perea who has been playing
since the Louisville game shows up, he could thrive. But if the Georgetown Mosquera-Perea shows up
it could be a long night.
Key Subs:
Holt vs Costello.
Costello, as has been said, has started several games and could in fact
start this one. Either way, Holt will
likely see time against him (and Schilling).
Holt is a bit undersized here, giving up 15-20 pounds, and has had games
where he looked great and games where he’s looked lost. Costello is averaging almost nine points and
six rebounds per game to go with about one block per game. He’s hitting 63.5% of his shots and 76.5%
from the line. He draws fouls well but
also commits his fair share of them. Holt
will likely be called on to play a good number of minutes, particularly if
Mosquera-Perea gets into foul trouble at any point (which has been more common
as he’s played more aggressively), so he could be critical to any Hoosier
success.
Hartman vs Clark. The
other key sub for the Spartans is Clark, who contributes seven points and three
rebounds per game. He shoots the ball
well from deep (41%) and from the field in general (54%), meaning whoever
guards him will need to be able to stay with him anywhere on the court. Collin Hartman is just the man for the job;
he’s a physical body who rebounds exceptionally well and does a decent job at
not fouling. Clark has also turned the
ball over at a high rate, something which Hartman could exploit.
Final Thoughts:
Michigan State is always a tough game for the Hoosiers,
especially at the Breslin Center. This
year will be no different, as the Spartans are higher ranked per KenPom (23rd
compared to 44th for the Hoosiers).
Indiana will have to play a nearly flawless game in order to pull off
the victory, including hit a lot of threes, limiting Michigan State’s offensive
rebounds, and not coming up with many empty possessions. If they do this, their offense can carry them
over just about anybody. But that’s a
big if.
KenPom likes the Spartans by a score of 79-72 with only a 24%
chance of a Hoosier victory. He also
predicts 71 possessions, so a bit fast for Michigan State. The Spartans have yet to play a team which
truly excels in a fast-paced game, so a sped up game would likely play to the
advantage of the Hoosiers. As much as I
hate to say it, I don’t think the Hoosiers will be able to pull off a second
victory at the Breslin Center in the last two-and-a-half decades. I think Michigan State will too easily be
able to drive to the basket, which’ll either result in easy buckets inside or
open threes on the perimeter (the Spartans are the best three-point shooting
team the Hoosiers have faced yet). I’ll
say the final score will be a bit higher at 82-80 in favor of the Spartans.
No comments:
Post a Comment