That's the Game: Illinois

The Hoosiers held on during a wacky game to win 80-74 at Illinois, just the second time in 13 tries that Indiana has been able to do that.  This was a game of runs for both teams, with fans unable to get comfortable no matter the score.  This was also a sharpshooting exercise, with a combined 23 made three-pointers with four different players making at least three shots from deep.  But when it was all said and done, Indiana walked out of Champaign with a road victory in conference play, something which is much easier said than done.

Now, about those runs I mentioned.  The Illini started the game on a 14-3 run by some out-of-his-mind shooting by Kendrick Nunn (3-3 from deep on the first three possessions), but the Hoosiers countered with a 14-2 run of their own, with Rob Johnson, Yogi Ferrell, and Nick Zeisloft hitting threes (two of them in the case of Zeisloft), to take the lead 17-16.  The Hoosiers would then outscore the Illini 17-7 to take a 34-23 lead before Illinois scored 11 straight to tie the game.  A couple Troy Williams dunks ended the half on a high note for the Hoosiers, going into the locker room with a 38-34 lead.

But those runs didn’t stop at halftime, no sir.  To turn the tables from the start of the game, Indiana got off to a 13-6 start to lead 50-40.  Then Hoosier fans everywhere began to panic as the Illini went on a 21-2 run to take a nine point lead with about 10 minutes remaining.  Recently, this has been a recipe for disaster for Indiana, a young team on the road in a tough environment.  But not today.  Instead, the Hoosiers ended the game with a 28-13 run (including 13-2 in the final three minutes), doing just enough to seal the game.

Six total players (three for each team) reached double-digit scoring, led by Nunn for Illinois with 24 points on 6-10 shooting from beyond the arc.  Williams and James Blackmon Jr. for Indiana both scored 21 points, Williams going 8-10 from the field and Blackmon Jr. hitting 4-6 from deep.  In a bit of a surprise, sixth-man Ahmad Starks poured in 19 points for the Illini, hitting 5-8 three-pointers and 4-4 from the line (as a reference, he was 3-21 from deep in Big Ten play coming into this game).  Malcolm Hill, the Illinois leading scorer in the absence of Rayvonte Rice, hit just shy of his average at 12 points, and Zeisloft had an important 10 points for the Hoosiers on 3-5 shooting from the perimeter.

The Good:

• The Play of Williams and Blackmon Jr.  When these two guys are on, great things happen for the Hoosiers.  Williams was a single rebounds away from a double-double, and also had a couple of steals.  But his athleticism is what really sets him apart, and was particularly evident on his putback tip-in which gave the Hoosiers the lead for good.  Williams attacking the rim does great things, not the least of which involves keeping the floor well-spaced for the dish.  Blackmon Jr., on the other hand, was deadly from the perimeter.  He was much better at choosing his shots (and not taking contested ones early in the shot clock), and he even had an assist on the fast break (something we have not seen happen much) which resulted in a three-point play the old-fashion way for Max Hoetzel.  Blackmon Jr. ended with seven rebounds, two assists, and a steal to go with his 21 points.

• Yogi Ferrell’s Leadership.  For the second straight game, Ferrell was held to only seven points in the game.  Last year, that would have been insurmountable for a Hoosier team that was completely reliant upon his scoring.  This year, however, that pressure has been lifted thanks to an influx (or the development) of scorers.  Instead, Ferrell was able to contribute with nine assists, just one shy of his career single-game best.  Those assists helped to score 24 points, with a particularly important one coming with just over a minute left when he stole the ball and passed it ahead to Blackmon Jr. for the layup to go ahead three.  Pair all of this with just a single turnover (the team only had nine on the game), and Ferrell was just as critical to the Hoosiers’ winning effort as were Williams and Blackmon Jr.

• The Physicality of Collin Hartman.  Just when you think he can’t be any more impressive, Collin Hartman goes and changes your mind.  His final stat line of six points, one rebound, and one assist may not wow anybody, but his defensive effort certainly has to.  He was given the assignment of guarding 6’11” Nnanna Egwu by virtue of being the biggest Hoosier out there.  This same Collin Hartman, who is more of a small forward than he even is a power forward (let alone a center), wasn’t even a big man on his high school team.  Yet here he finds himself the starting center for Indiana in Big Ten play, forced to play way out of his position, particularly on defense.  And how did he respond?  By helping to hold Egwu to zero points and two rebounds and forcing two turnovers before the Illini big man fouled out with just over two minutes to play.  Several of those fouls came when Hartman positioned himself perfectly on the rebound and forced Egwu to either attempt to go over him (and get called for over-the-back) or to shove him out of the way in frustration.  So despite what the stat book says, Hartman was huge for the Hoosiers.

• Bench Play.  Many members of the Indiana bench came ready to play as well, led by Zeisloft, Hoetzel, and Emmitt Holt.  As mentioned, Zeisloft shot the ball well right when the Hoosiers needed it most.  But he also did not turn the ball over once in 19 minutes of play and played solid, physical defense, even recording a block at the end of the game.  Hoetzel contributed six points in five minutes of play, but also got a nice steal in the first half.  He played with great intensity, and was perfect shooting (1-1 from deep, 1-1 for two, and 1-1 from the line).  Holt scored four points and had a block, but also played critical minutes against Egwu as well.  The one negative thing which could be said about Holt in this outing is that he missed a couple of bunnies, including what should have been an automatic putback dunk with the Hoosiers down four in the final six minutes.  But he is learning and developing, and his positive contributions far outweigh the negatives.

• Defensive Rebounding.  While the Indiana offensive rebounding effort was about average for this season, it was the defensive rebounding which stood out.  The Hoosiers held the Illini to rebounding only 14.8% of their misses (meaning Indiana got the rebound on 85% of the Illinois missed shots).  This is a full 13% lower for Illinois’ offensive rebounding, and it was 19% lower than IU’s season average for opponent offensive rebounding.  This is huge for an Indiana team which is going to be undersized for the foreseeable future.

• All Things Free Throw.  The Hoosiers have been great this season at keeping opposing teams off the free throw line, and that continued against the Illini, who attempted only 12 freebies on the game.  This gives them a free throw rate of 21.8% (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts), a solid 10% lower than their season average.  This was important because the Illini do not miss the free throws that they do earn (they hit 10 out of 12 today).  On the other end, the Hoosiers shot 20 free throws, hitting 15 of them (for the record, that’s more than Illinois attempted).  Their free throw rate of 35.7% was actually just below the Hoosier average, however, it was seven percent above what the Illini were allowing coming into the game, a definite win for Indiana.

The Not-So-Good:

• Guarding the Three.  Whether this was just a fluke shooting performance by Illinois (who was hitting deep and contested shots) or was indicative of a defensive flaw for the Hoosiers, the Illini went off today, hitting 12-27 from deep.  Nunn was particularly deadly, but Indiana should have expected him to shoot well (he was hitting above 40% from the perimeter coming into the game).  Instead, they left him relatively open on all of the Illini’s first three possessions.  But to be fair, Nunn was feeling it and sometimes there’s nothing that can be done.  The other Illini who as feeling it was Starks, who hit 5-8 from the perimeter.  This was far and away an outlying performance, as Starks was only hitting 14% during Big Ten play and 26% on the season.  Sometimes you just have to accept that a guy will go off randomly (or the blind squirrel finds the nut).  Either way, this type of defensive performance from the Hoosiers needs to be a rarity if they hope to stay toward the top of the Big Ten.

• Offensive Lulls.  At this point, this is getting a bit nitpicky to find things that were really wrong during this game.  But we have seen this season that no lead is safe with these Hoosiers, who can’t quite figure out how to stomp on opponents’ throats once they get their foot into place.  Where this team differs from last year, however, is that they have thus far done a good job of closing out tough games, even after starting slow and/or giving up a double-digit lead (or two, or three).  The fact that the Hoosiers have been able to close out multiple such games on the road in the Big Ten is a huge improvement.

The Final Word:

Exciting.  Any time you watch a game where both teams are giving up double-digit leads (multiple times), exciting is a good description (along with mind-blowing and frustrating).  But for stretches the Hoosiers played some of their best basketball of the season.  They never let the score get into their heads and just played the way they needed to.  Once again, however, the Hoosiers got off to a ridiculously slow start, even if they were able to overcome it.  As long as they can maintain this level of composure, it is not too much of a concern.  But when games like the visit to Michigan State come around and they start playing like chickens with their heads cut off, things get very ugly very fast.  For now, Hoosier fans should just sit back, relax (well, after forgetting how the Colts played today), and be excited that Indiana has stolen not one but two Big Ten road victories early in conference play.

**Noteworthy News**

With nine assists, Yogi Ferrell moved into 12^th all-time at IU in career assists with 362.  He needs four to move into 11^th with Jordan Hulls, but then needs another 19 to crack the top 10 (to tie Steve Alford at 385).  He also hit a three-pointer, keeping his strike alive at 49 straight game, which is the second-longest active streak in the country.  He also only needs four more made threes to move into the top 10 for career (tie Roderick Wilmont at 150).

Up Next:

The Hoosiers host conference-leading Maryland on Thursday January 22.  This is one of those ridiculously late games, with tip scheduled for 9pm, and it will be aired on ESPNU.  This is a huge game for the Hoosiers, who trail the Terps by just half a game.  Indiana will once again be the underdog (as has happened in all but one Big Ten game so far), but this is becoming familiar territory for the Hoosiers.  A win (especially minus Mosquera-Perea) could really boost the confidence of this young team.

The Game Ahead: Illinois

Tomorrow afternoon the Hoosiers travel to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (which is actually based on the local Native American tribe, the same one from which the state itself gets its name. This also means the “Hoosier” is the most vague of any Big Ten mascot.) at 1pm on the Big Ten Network.  This is a single-play game, meaning the Illini will not be coming to Assembly Hall this season.  Indiana does not have a good recent record at the State Farm Center (formerly known as Assembly Hall), where they are 1-11 in the last 13 seasons (with one season where they did not play at Illinois).

The Teams:

Illinois is 12-6 so far this season and 2-3 in the Big Ten.  The losses come to Miami, Villanova, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska (all of which are top-100 teams per Kenpom), and the two best wins come against Baylor (19^th) and Maryland (21^st).  The remaining wins are against teams with an average rank of 230.  But, the Illini have yet to lose at home, which could be the difference maker in this game.

The Illinois defense has been solid this season (ranked 52^nd in KenPom adjusted efficiency), particularly at defensive rebounding, where they’re allowing opponents to grab only 28% of misses.  They have also been good at keeping opponents from the free throw line and decent at keeping them from shooting well (defensive effective field goal percentage of 46%).  The Illini offense has been moderate, ranking 88^th in efficiency.  Their best offensive ability is that of holding onto the ball (they rank third in the country at turnover rate).  Other than that they’re moderate at best but have been particularly bad at offensive rebounding (28% for 268^th) and getting to the free throw line (ranked 301^st), although they make the free throws they do get (78.6% which is good for third in the country).

The Illini have had some bad luck when it comes to injuries, losing senior point guard Tracy Abrams to a torn ACL before the season even really started and senior shooting guard Rayvonte Rice to a broken left hand two games into the Big Ten season.  In the three games since Rice went out, not too much has changed statistically for the Illini, with turnover rate staying way down (including a ridiculously low 4.9% against Northwestern), but with free throw rate coming in around 27% (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) even with a high-for-them performance of 36% versus Maryland.  Since Rice broke his hand, Illinois has added Jaylon Tate to the lineup.  Joining him in the backcourt are Kendrick Nunn, Aaron Cosby, and Malcolm Hill.  The only true big man that the Illini start is Nnanna Egwu (who I feel has been at Illinois forever).

The Hoosiers are dealing with injury of their own, as junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea deals with a right knee injury of some kind (which will likely keep him out of the lineup for about a month).  Indiana has only been without Mosquera-Perea for a single game (against Penn State), but he was actually injured only the day before in practice, so the team didn’t have much time to work out a game plan for suddenly having no legitimate big man.  In that game, the Hoosiers started sophomore not-big-man Collin Hartman (he’s 6’7” but is closer to a natural guard than a natural center) along with Troy Williams, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, and Yogi Ferrell.

Despite some shooting difficulties, Indiana has maintained its high-powered offense (17^th in efficiency per KenPom).  Even with some rough outings since the start of Big Ten play, the Hoosiers are in the top 25 in effective field goal percentage at 54.9% and are 35^th in three-point percentage (38.7%).  They have also been grabbing offensive rebounds surprisingly well considering they are one of the shortest teams in the country (and that’s with Mosquera-Perea in the lineup).  The defense, on the other hand, has not been particularly impressive, ranking 189^th in defensive efficiency.  They have done a stellar job keeping opponents off the free throw line (ranked 15^th at 26.5% free throw rate) and at guarding the three (opponents are hitting 29% of their threes, which ranks IU’s defense 29^th), but that may say more about the shooting abilities of opponents rather than defensive acumen of the Hoosiers.  Their big area of struggle is forcing turnovers, where they rank in the bottom 20 by forcing opponents to cough it up on under 16% of their possessions.

The Lineups:

I’ve decided to switch from looking at “matchups” to looking at “lineups” because, at least until Mosquera-Perea makes it back onto the court, the Hoosiers are going to be exceedingly reliant upon zone defense to make up for being height-challenged.  This makes individual matchups less significant, although I will mention which Hoosier would be best suited to guard them.

Malcolm Hill (#21) 6’6” Sophomore:  With Rice off the court, Hill has become the leading scorer (and the only one averaging double-digits) at almost 14 points per game.  He is also tied as leading rebounder at almost six per game.  He’s a good shooter, hitting almost half of all field goals and almost 40% of his perimeter shots.  Hill also draws fouls well and has the best free throw rate on the team.  The Hoosiers need to watch him if he pulls up from the left wing (where he hits 50% of his shots), but especially when he shoots from either elbow.  He takes 31% of his shots from those spots (according to ShotAnalytics.com) and is hitting 38% from the right and 54% from the left).  The combo of Ferrell, Johnson, and Stan Robinson will see a lot of time against Hill, as all of them are capable defenders even if they are undersized.  I would guess that out of the trio Ferrell and Robinson will guard him more than Johnson because they are more experienced.

Kendrick Nunn (#25) 6’3” Sophomore:  Nunn has been a solid contributor for the Illini, with almost 10 points and three rebounds per game.  He also has quick hands on defense with 1.4 steals per game.  As with Hill, Nunn is also a good shooter, including 43% from deep.  He doesn’t commit many fouls, but he doesn’t draw them either.  The Hoosiers will have to watch him when he takes shots from either corner three spot as those are two of his highest-volume spots and he also hits at least a decent percentage (33% from the left and 58% from the right).  But until he proves otherwise, they can just let him shoot from the right wing, where he’s hitting a quarter of his shots.  Johnson is the Hoosier likely to see a good chunk of time on Nunn, as he is the second-best perimeter defender among starters and Nunn is the second-best perimeter player out of the Illini starters.

Aaron Cosby (#11) 6’3” Junior:  The third-leading scorer for Illinois is Cosby at eight points per game.  He also contributes almost four rebounds and two assists, and hits a respectable 33% from deep.  He has the highest turnover rate of starters, but that’s not really saying much on this team because nobody turns it over that much.  Whichever Indiana defender is on him should watch when he shoots from the left wing (which accounts for 18% of his shots), where he hits 52% of his shots.  On the other hand, he doesn’t shoot well from straight-away at only 9%, but he also doesn’t take many from out there anyway.  I’m not completely sure who will guard Cosby (outside of zone play) because there’s no Hoosier starter who is a natural defensive counterpart.  There is still one more guard for Blackmon Jr. to face up against, and both Williams and Hartman are both going to be needed inside to take on Egwu (hence the need for the zone).  All things considered, I would guess that Williams matches up with him, if for no other reason than Hartman is the more physical defender in the post.

Jaylon Tate (#1) 6’3” Sophomore:  Tate has been the replacement in the starting lineup for Rice, although he is far from the same offensive force, averaging just 3.4 points per game.  He does, however, dish out almost three assists per game to go with around a steal per game.  Tate also turns the ball over a bit, but again, not that much.  He takes a large portion of his shots from point blank and is not much of a shooter, as evidenced by the fact that he’s taken only nine three-pointers this season.  Blackmon Jr. will likely draw this assignment, as Tate is not much of an offensive force and Blackmon Jr. is the weakest perimeter defender out of the starting guards.  It is possible, however, that the Hoosiers put Blackmon Jr. on Cosby and Williams on Tate in an effort to free Williams up some to help double-team Egwu.  That could put more pressure on the freshman Hoosier to guard better, but that also may not be the worst thing in the world either.

Nnanna Egwu (#32) 6'11" Senior:  It seems like Egwu has been around forever, but I’m thinking it’s more likely that my brain is playing tricks on me.  But Egwu is not really a prototypical big man by any stretch of the imagination.  He’s averaging 7.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, but is also hitting 30% of his threes.  For a big man, he’s just an average rebounder, but he does block shots well, averaging almost two per game.  He also hasn’t done a particularly good job of drawing fouls at the same time as he commits more than his fair share of them.  He obviously takes a lot of shots from point-blank (where he’s deadly, hitting over 80%), but he also takes a good number of mid-range shots, particularly from the left elbow (where he takes 15% of his shots and hits them at a 44% clip).  Provided that Coach Crean sticks with the same starting lineup, this matchup goes to Hartman hands down because he has the physicality to hold his own.  If Hartman is not the starter, it’ll probably be Emmitt Holt, who would then have this assignment for the same reasons as Hartman.  Either way, guarding Egwu will likely have to be a team effort, as he’s going to be about half a foot taller than the guys guarding him.

Key Subs:

Ahmad Starks (#3) 5’9” Senior:  Starks has actually started a fair number of games but has recently moved to a reserve role.  He’s averaging seven points and three assists per game, and while he might not be much of a shooter, he’s deadly when he can get to the free throw line (93%).  He’s been shooting well from both elbows, but that also hasn’t stopped him from shooting threes, even if he’s not the most efficient from out there.  He doesn’t draw fouls real well, but he does commit them at a fair rate, something the Hoosiers could exploit.

Leron Black (#12) 6’7” Freshman:  Black is the second primary sub for the Illini, averaging five points and four rebounds per game.  He is a high usage player for the number of minutes he plays, and he is a decent interior shooter, hitting 72% of his shots at the rim.  He’s been a good defensive rebounder and draws fouls well, but he commits a lot of fouls (to the tune of seven fouls per 40 minutes, the worst of any rotation player on the team).  He has only taken three shots from the perimeter on the season, putting him squarely in the category of non-shooter.

Final Thoughts:

This is a tall order for a Mosquera-Perea-less team on the road against Illinois.  To start things, the Hoosiers need to just forget about forcing the Illini into turnovers because it’s just not going to happen, at least not to the degree that Indiana can bank on that as a game plan.  That means an added emphasis will be placed on offensive rebounding and not coughing the ball up themselves.  This may actually not be out of the realm of possibility, even without the Hoosiers’ starting center.  Additionally, Indiana will have to shoot better than it has so far in Big Ten play.  Some of this needs to come down to the shot selection of Blackmon Jr., who has been particularly inefficient.  He is hitting under a quarter of his perimeter shots in conference play, which is just below the 27% he’s hitting from the field as the whole.  Of particular concern comes when he drives (especially on fast breaks) and does not recognize that he has open teammates surrounding him, instead opting to go up with it himself, with it often ending poorly.  Now, Blackmon Jr. is a freshman and I’m sure he’ll start to get the hang of it, but the sooner he does, the better it’ll be for the Hoosiers.  Another concern for Indiana will be that Illinois will take this opportunity to change up their game plan a bit in order to hammer the post more, exploiting the Hoosiers’ lack of height.  If they can force Egwu into early foul trouble, that could help to deter this type of game plan.  If not, it could be a very long game.

By all accounts, the Hoosiers are the underdogs in this game, with Pomeroy predicting an Indiana loss by the score of 77-72 with a 34% chance of a Hoosier victory.  Vegas also likes the Illini by five points.  But I really think the Hoosiers come out strong in an attempt to make up for their last away game (the Michigan State debacle).  They have now had more time to adjust to playing without Mosquera-Perea, which should help to negate some of the difficulties they had against Penn State.  This will also be the first time that injured sophomore Devin Davis will travel with the team for an away game, and he has been able to join every practice since returning to IU for the spring semester (even doing some light passing and shooting in drills).  This could provide the Hoosiers with the extra motivation needed to win in a tough environment.  I think that Indiana will pull off a gritty 74-70 win, probably after a rough first few minutes.

**Noteworthy News**

Yogi Ferrell has now reached 353 assists in his career (still ranked 14^th) and needs only three to join Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas in 12^th place and another ten after that to join Jordan Hulls in 11^th.  He also has made 145 three-pointers in his career, needing five to move into 10^th place at IU with Roderick Wilmont.  Ferrell also has 1,086 points in his career (good for 44^th all-time at IU) and needs nine to move into 43^rd with Daryl Thomas and another three (so 12 points) to move into 42^nd with Bob “Slick” Leonard.