I don't know about you, but a week is a very long time to wait between Indiana basketball games. At least in February that is. Tuesday's game will be the first match-up for IU since winning on the road at Michigan State, and this game will once again be on the road, this time at Minnesota's "The Barn." It can be seen on ESPN at 7pm, with Mike Tirico, Sam Ponder, and Dan Dakich on the call. The Hoosiers won the first game against Minnesota 88-81.
The Teams:
Many Hoosier fans will remember that previous game as one which the Hoosiers almost blew. Indiana had a 23 point lead at the half and played one of the most spectacular 20 minutes of basketball seen at that point in the season. All of IU's starters were in double figures (Christian Watford had 15, Cody Zeller had 18, Jordan Hulls had 19, Victor Oladipo had 20, and Yogi Ferrell had 13), but the bench only contributed 3 points, all from the free throw line. Speaking of free throws, the Hoosiers shot a ridiculous 40 of them off of 25 Gopher fouls. Part of what allowed Minnesota back into the game, however, was the fact that they only hit 26 of them (65%). Fans will also remember this as the game that Victor fouled out after being called for three fouls on 3-point shooters (notice I said he was called for three fouls, not that he committed three fouls). Minnesota also had a couple players foul out, Rodney Williams and Joe Coleman. IU did manage to turn the ball over 15 times in this game, but they balanced this out by forcing Minnesota into 17 turnovers of their own.
Minnesota is coming into this game just 6-8 in conference play, but they have tended to find a way to win at home, where they are 5-2. They average 69 points on 44.5% shooting, along with 39 rebounds and 15 assists per game. On the season, the Gophers get to the free throw line at a solid rate of 42.7% (about 3 times for every 7 field goal attempts). On the other hand, they do turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions, worst in the Big Ten. The stat that stands out most for the Gophers is that they lead the country in their ability to rebound the ball on the offensive end, grabbing 15 per game. On the defensive side, Minnesota allows teams to shoot 37% from three-point range.
The Hoosiers are currently 12-2 in conference play, and are 6-1 on the road (including a monster victory at Michigan State). They average 83 points (2nd in the country) on 50% shooting (4th in the country), and they also grab 39 rebounds and dish out 15 assists per game. Indiana is even better at getting to the free throw line than the Gophers, having the third-best rate in the country at 48% (almost one free throw for every two field goal attempts). The Hoosiers also tend to turn the ball over quite frequently, but that trend has changed of late, with IU turning the ball over 10 times or fewer in three of the last four games. While they aren't quite as good as the Gophers at grabbing offensive rebounds, the Hoosiers are 6th in the country while getting about 12 per game. What could be key for the Hoosiers is that at the same time as Minnesota has trouble guarding the perimeter, Indiana is the best team in the country at making deep shots, hitting 43%.
The Match-ups:
There are several interesting match-ups in this game, highlighted by the likely pairing of Victor Oladipo on Andre Hollins, although Yogi Ferrell will also be spending his fair share of time guarding Hollins. Andre Hollins is 6'1" and is pacing the Gophers at 13.6 points per game to go with three assists. He hits 41% of his field goals, including 39% of his deep shots. Hollins draws fouls pretty well and hits any free throws he attempts at a high rate of almost 80%. The interesting thing with this match-up is that the Hoosiers can choose to go tall against him with Victor, who has about four inches on him, or go almost even with Yogi (who is listed at about an inch shorter but could be more like two or three). Either option is workable, as both are exceedingly quick and neither creates too huge of a miss-match at any other position. The thing I worry about with Hollins is that, while he does hit 39% of this three-pointers, he has only hit 5-19 in the last three games (26%). If we go by the law of averages, he's due for a good shooting performance sometime soon (hopefully it will come in their last three games against Penn State, Nebraska, and Purdue). In the previous game, Hollins went 5-12 from deep and scored 25 points. Victor is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and over 2 steals per game while shooting 64% from the field and 51% from deep. He is even better than Hollins at drawing fouls, but at the same time has a significantly higher free throw rate. As long as he can avoid the stupid foul calls from the previous game, Victor should be able to handle any match-up with which he's faced.
Another key match-up will be with Austin Hollins, a 6'4" junior. Once again, I could see Yogi and Victor splitting time with the taller of the two Hollins, although I do see Yogi getting a good bit of time on Austin despite the height difference. This Hollins is averaging 11 points, 3 assists, and almost 2 steals per game. He is also very good at not committing fouls; he was the only starter to have fewer than four fouls in the previous game against IU. While Yogi doesn't score at as high a level (7 points per game), he is a phenomenal distributor (4 assists per game) with great court vision. He is even better at not committing fouls than Hollins.
The final guard match-up will likely be Joe Coleman and Jordy Hulls. Coleman averages 9 points and 4 rebounds per game, and is pretty good at stealing the ball. Jordy is getting 11 points and 3 assists per game while hitting 49% of his three pointers. While there will be a height miss-match no matter who Jordy guards, this seems like the logical choice for him. What will be interesting is seeing who is tasked with becoming his bestest buddy and not leaving his side on the other end.
After his success guarding the bigger A.J. Hammonds of Purdue, Christian Watford could be splitting time with Cody Zeller in guarding Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams. The two are only 6'8" and 6'7" respectively, so there is not a big difference in size. Williams is averaging more points (11 compared to 9.5), but Mbakwe is grabbing more boards (8.5 compared to 5). Williams is also a minor threat to shoot the deep shot, however he has only attempted 33 of them (Mbake has not attempted any). Mbakwe is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and is also a very good shot blocker. He also draws fouls very well and is in the top 15 in the country in free throw rate at 80% (four free throws for every five field goal attempts). On the other hand, he only hits 61% of those attempts. Williams is also a decent offensive rebounder and also draws fouls pretty well, but he also shoots below 70% from the free throw line. Christian and Cody are averaging 13 and 17 points respectively, and Christian pulls down almost seven rebounds per game while Cody grabs eight. Christian is definitely a threat to pull the perimeter shot, hitting 49% of his attempts. Cody is phenomenal at drawing fouls and is in the top 20 in free throw rate at over 75%, where he hits 75% of his attempts. Christian also has a free throw rate of above 50%, and is second in the conference at hitting his free throws (82%).
Final Thoughts:
The Hoosiers are favored to win this game, but it was the same against Illinois and we saw how that turned out. As with Illinois, the Gophers are looking for a signature resume-boosting win against a ranked opponent, and Indiana is their last shot. The Gophers also won't forget Indiana's last trip to The Barn, where the Hoosiers won 69-50.
Turnovers will be a major factor in this game. Neither team is particularly good at not turning the ball over, but Indiana tends to be at least slightly better at forcing the other team into turnovers. In the previous game, the Hoosiers had five turnovers in the final eight minutes compared with one for the Gophers in the same time span, and this helped to keep Minnesota in the game.
Fouls could also be critical in this game. If IU can get the Gophers into foul trouble (and into their bench) early, this could cause troubles for a team which has a fairly limited bench. The Hoosiers are very good at drawing fouls and proved this in the previous game by forcing two players to foul out and two more to be on the verge. On the other hand, the Hoosiers also need to avoid foul trouble as their bench is also somewhat suspect (although some of this is due to injury). Overall, the Hoosiers have done a better job avoiding fouls than Minnesota, which could be the difference in a close game if the players are hitting their free throws.
As with many other opponents, I do not see Minnesota as being able to withstand the one-two punch of Victor and Cody (although I'll leave it up to you to decide who's one and who's two). No team has yet found a way to neutralize both players within a single game, and I don't see that changing now with an outright Big Ten title on the line. There are no guarantees when it comes to road games, particularly at The Barn, but if the Hoosiers could win this, they would need only one more win for at least a share of the title and two wins to get the title outright. This should be a very physical game with lots of rebounding and lots of excitement.
No comments:
Post a Comment