The Game Ahead: Ohio State

I was going to do a post-game write-up after the Illinois game, but I still cannot be completely rational and objective about it, so it's just not going to happen.  Suffice it to say that it should not be possible for a team that leads in field goal percentage, free throw rate, and rebounds to lose without some outside help (even with 14 turnovers).  To put it in perspective, IU had two more turnovers against then-#1-ranked Michigan and still pulled it off (Michigan only turned the ball over 8 times and the Illini turned it over 9 times).  To say that the technical foul on Will (which ended up being worth 4 points for the Illini) was bogus is just about the understatement of the season (coming just behind "Cody is tall" and "Victor can jump").

But that game is in the past, and the Hoosiers now need to focus on tomorrow's game at Ohio State.  I'm hoping the above image (from The Hoosier Scoop) is characteristic of what will happen: Victor dominating in exciting fashion while Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft are unable to do anything but stand by and watch helplessly.  The game is at 1pm on CBS and is being called by Kevin Harlan and Clark Kellogg.  Ken Pomeroy favors the Hoosiers by a single point with a 52% probability of an IU win.  Which in normal-speak means nobody has any idea how this game will end.  Both teams are coming off of tough losses, IU losing by a buzzer-beating layup at Illinois Thursday and OSU losing by two in overtime at Michigan.  Currently (prior to the Michigan State vs Purdue game), the Hoosiers and Spartans are once again tied at the top of the conference with Michigan and Wisconsin tied half a game back and Ohio State next at one game back.  It is now becoming more and more possible for the eventual conference winner to end with a conference record of 14-4, and it is more than possible for multiple teams to take a share of the title.  It has also become possible (but not guaranteed) that the Big Ten could be represented by seven teams in the NCAA Tourney (the above-named teams plus Minnesota and maybe Illinois).

As you can see, this game has a lot of implications (another pretty big understatement).  The last time the Hoosiers knocked off the Buckeyes in Columbus was in February of 2008, led by DJ White's double-double and Eric Gordon's 15 points.  That game, however, is one of only two games that the Hoosiers have won in Columbus since the 2001-2002 season.

These two teams offer an interesting overall match-up.  The Hoosiers are ahead in many of the major categories (points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, and field goal percentage), but the numbers are very close across the board.  The Buckeyes are hitting about 37% of their three-pointers, however that does not seem to matter much when teams are playing the Hoosiers (the Illini were hitting about 25% of their deep shots but connected on 38% in order to top IU).  Even the average turnovers per game aren't all that different, with the Buckeyes turning it over 11 times per game to the Hoosiers' 13.

If there weren't many high-level individual match-ups in the Illinois game, there are many against Ohio State.  Once again, Victor highlights the match-up of match-ups, likely squaring off against Ohio State's do-it-all junior Deshaun Thomas, a Ft. Wayne, Indiana native.  The 6'7" Thomas is averaging almost 20 points and 6 rebounds per game, even if his shooting percentages are pretty low (field goal of 46.4% and three-point of 40%).  The one shooting percentage at which he excels is free throw, where he hits 82% of his attempts.  At the same time, however, he is not typically particularly good at getting to the line (only once for every four field goal attempts).  As is required by his team, Thomas does not go to the bench often, playing 35 minutes per game, and using more possessions than anyone on either team.  Even with that, he doesn't turn the ball over all that often, and is actually in the top 40 in the nation at not turning the ball over.  Victor should be a formidable foe for Thomas.  Despite a 2-3 inch height difference, Victor should be athletic enough to keep up with Thomas whether he chooses to go out to the perimeter or battle it out in the post.  Surprisingly enough for a guard, Victor posts a block rate of 3% (compare that to Cody's rate of 4.8% despite the 7 inch height difference), which should come in handy when Thomas decides to shoot closer to the basket.  Probably more importantly is that Victor ranks 21st in steal percentage, meaning that something has got to give between his ability to steal and Thomas' tendency to hold onto the ball.  Victor's work (along with Will's, Jeremy's, and possibly Christian's) on Thomas will be key because if he can be shut down there's only one other Buckeye averaging double-digit points (Lenzelle Smith Jr.).  I also don't necessarily see Thomas guarding Victor in return, as the bigger Buckeye body will most likely need to go up against Christian, and I also don't see anyone being able to match-up enough with Victor on the offensive end.

Another premier match-up will be Yogi versus Aaron Craft.  Both are very good point guards, however Craft is better known for his lock-down defense (he was last season's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year).  On a side-note, while Victor most likely will not guard him often, this game could go a long way in determining which elite-level defender (Victor or Craft) will earn this season's Big Ten DPOY and possibly the national award as well.  On the offensive end, Craft's numbers have not been all that impressive.  He's getting just over nine points per game on 38.5% field goal and 31% three-point.  He is averaging 4.5 assists to 2 turnovers, and he actually has a higher free throw rate than Thomas, going to the charity stripe once for every three field goal attempts.  Defense, however, is how Craft earns his scholarship and he is considered one of, if not the, best on-ball defender in the country.  He averages 2 steals a game while also not fouling very often.  Yogi, even as a freshman, has shown significant improvement both on offense and defense.  He's averaging almost 8 points a game, along with 4.5 assists to 2.2 turnovers.  He hits 40% of his field goals and 35% of his three-pointers, and manages to get to the free throw line almost once for every two field goal attempts.  Against Michigan, Yogi did a solid job of defending arguably the best point guard in the nation in Trey Burke, and even though Burke scored 25 points it took him an uncharacteristically inefficient 24 shots to do it.  What this comes down to is two of the league's best point guards squaring off, and while Craft may have an edge defensively, I think that Yogi is a well-rounded enough player to at least hold his own.

The final potentially high-level match-up is that of Cody and the 6'11" 250 pound Amir Williams, who is averaging 4.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.  This is an important match-up in that Williams is the only Buckeye over 6'8".  While Williams may draw fouls at a very high rate, he commits them at an even higher rate.  Add to this that Cody is one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls (19th) and getting to the free throw line (12th), and it could be a long night for both Williams and his 6'8" big-man-buddy Evan Ravenel, who commits fouls at about the same rate as Williams.  Cody is averaging 16 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, and he also gets to the line around 3 times for every 4 field goal attempts, hitting 75% of those free throws.  At the same time as he can draw fouls, he also refrains from committing them, fouling not quite 3 times per 40 minutes.  While Williams (and Ravenel) may both have more muscle than he does, Cody is also the best running big man in the country.  If Cody can exploit that extra speed and agility, he should make life miserable for both Williams and Ravenel.  If he doesn't play to that strength, however, it could be a long night in which Cody gets out-physicalled down low.  While that does not seem likely, especially looking at the clinic he put on against the similarly-built Mitch McGary in the Michigan game, it is probably something on which the Buckeyes will try to focus.

The biggest potential problem-match-up I foresee is that of Jordy and Lenzelle Smith, Jr.  The 6'4" Smith is averaging 10.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while hitting 41.5% of his three-pointers.  While this would be a height mismatch whether guarded by Jordy or Yogi, Jordy tends to have difficulty guarding guards who are taller than he is, and Smith has about four inches on him.  This does not mean that Jordy cannot do it, it simply means that he's going to have to work very hard in order to be successful.

It should be interesting to see how the Hoosier role players respond in this game.  Despite the previously-mentioned technical foul, Will put up solid numbers against Illinois, scoring 13 points on 6-11 shooting while grabbing 2 boards and a steal and dishing out an assist while having no turnovers.  Jeremy once again also contributed valuable minutes, scoring 6 points in 9 minutes and going 2-2 from three-point land (his first made three-pointers since the Coppin State game on December 1).  He also had two assists and no turnovers. I'd like to see Derek and Mo get more time in as the continue to recover from their injuries, yet they are maintaining very minimal minutes.  It is also going to be important to get Remy's confidence back up as he continues to struggle at times on the court.

This is going to be a very good game by two teams who desperately want to rebound from tough losses.  The Hoosiers have had the tendency to play their best ball when up against their best competition (and also to play down to the level of their lesser opponents), and there are few teams in the country who are better than the Buckeyes, particularly when they are in Columbus.  As long as the Hoosiers can hold onto the ball down the stretch and decently contain Thomas they should be able to pull off this win.  But as I said earlier, nobody has any idea which way this game will go. 

Despite some bumps in the road, there are a few Hoosier highlights which deserve recognition and praise.  Christian, the active Big Ten leading career scorer, is up to 1,583 points in his career, and only needs 7 points to tie Greg Graham for 12th place all-time for Indiana and 10 points to tie Scott May at number 11.  In the loss to Illinois, Yogi became the fourth Hoosier freshman to make 100 assists, and he passed recent-graduate Verdell Jones III to take 3rd place on the list.  While this won't happen in the upcoming game (or the next couple games), Victor and Cody are only 56 points and 65 points away, respectively, from joining Jordy and Christian in the 1,000-point club, and both of them could do it within the remainder of the season.  Victor also currently has 54 steals on the season, which is good for a tie at 6th with Jared Jeffries for number of steals in a single season, and if he's able to grab 20 more he will be tied with Isiah Thomas at the top.  He has 137 steals in his career so far, which is also god for a tie at 6th with Tom Coverdale, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to move to the top with Dane Fife if he stays in the candy stripes next season.