Monday, February 18, 2013

The Game Ahead: Michigan State


Who knows what the score could have been?  The Hoosiers steamrolled the Boilermakers 83-55... and Victor Oladipo didn't play at all in the second half.  After limping to the locker room just before half with a tweaked ankle, Victor took the unusual role of cheerleader for the final 17 minutes (he joined the bench about three minutes into the half).  This was a wise decision by Coach Crean & Co., as Indiana never once lost control of this game.

This dominance, naturally, was done through the standout performance of Victor's fellow-junior buddy Will Sheehey.  There's a reason this duo is nicknamed "Shee-ladipo;" it's hard to pinpoint where one stops and the other begins.  In Victor's absence, Will had a career-high 22 points on the ridiculously efficient, school-record-setting 9-9 from the field, including two three-pointers.  You read that right: school-record-setting 9-9 from the field.  Of all the amazing players to don the candy stripes, names like Calbert Cheaney, Steve Alford, Damon Bailey, and Isiah Thomas come to mind, Will is the only player to hit all nine of his shots in one game.  That's some pretty good company right there.

The remainder of the Hoosier's starting line-up were their usual dominant selves.  Cody Zeller managed to quietly put up 19 points and nine rebounds, and Jordan Hulls scored 11 on 3-6 shooting from deep and chipped in five assists.  Yogi Ferrell, who comes in at maybe 6'0", pulled down six rebounds to go with his five assists.  Christian Watford scored 14 points, including the team's first eight, while effectively shutting down A.J. Hammonds.  And while he only played 14 minutes, Victor did manage to pull down five boards.

Now the road for the Hoosiers gets pretty rough.  They travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State on Tuesday at 7pm on ESPN.  The game will be called by Dick Vitale and Magic Johnson as he returns to his school for his first experience in in-game commentating.

The Teams:

The Hoosiers won the first game at Assembly Hall at the end of January.  Indiana was able to force guard Keith Appling on the bench for 21 minutes, limiting him to three points, no assists, and four turnovers before fouling out.  The odds of that happening again are pretty slim, especially at the Breslin Center.  Another thing that is unlikely to happen again is the Spartans going 11-23 from deep; they average five made three-pointers per game.  Gary Harris hit five threes, and Adreian Payne, who had five made three-pointers in his career going into the game, hit three of them in the game at Assembly Hall.  I also don't see Michigan State going to the line only six times as a team like they did at Assembly Hall.  Cody on his own shot as many free throws as the Spartans as a team.

The Spartans are putting up 70 points per game, and Ken Pomeroy has them in the top 20 offenses in the country and top 15 defenses.  They average about 38 rebounds and 14 assists per game, and are hitting 47% of their field goals.  They also get to the free throw line at a decent rate (more than once for every three field goal attempts).

In contrast, the Hoosiers are the second-highest scoring offense in the country at 83 points per game.  According to the same Ken Pomeroy statistics, Indiana has the top ranked offense and 12th ranked defense.  The Hoosiers are grabbing 39 rebounds and dishing out 15 assists per game, and hit 50% of their field goals (good for 4th in the country).  Indiana gets to the free throw line at an even better rate than Michigan State, almost once for every two field goal attempts.

The Match-ups

These match-ups could be a little different this time around depending upon how Victor's ankle is holding up and how much Coach Crean is willing to push him.  In the first game, Victor was dominant, scoring 21 points, grabbing seven rebounds and six steals, and swatting away three blocks.  One of the keys will be shutting down Harris, who scored 21 in Assembly Hall while not turning it over at all.  There are several different options for guarding Harris depending upon who is in the line-up for both teams.  One option would be to have Vic guard him and take the chance of putting Jordy on Branden Dawson, who is 6'6".  The plus side to that is that Dawson is not particularly dangerous from outside so as long as Jordy could keep Dawson in front of him, this tactic could have some success.  Another option would be to have Jordy stick to Harris like glue.  Harris has been shooting primarily from deep since the first game, and Jordy has been doing a solid job of getting through picks and runs through the post meaning he could do a decent job of both preventing him from getting the ball in position to shoot and from getting the shot off.  Whichever way the Hoosiers go, Harris needs to be contained to keep him from going off for five three-pointers again.

Cody and Christian will have their own battles in the post with Payne and Derrick Nix.  Payne had 18 in the previous match-up, but as previously mentioned he hit an exceedingly uncharacteristic three shots from deep.  He does a decent job of drawing fouls, but he commits them even more, although he was one of only two in the Spartan's starting line-up who wasn't in foul trouble against Indiana the first time around.  Nix does an even better job of drawing fouls, but he can also be coerced into getting himself into foul trouble.  While he has bulk on both Cody and Christian, both of them have an edge in speed, which makes it easier for a guy like Nix to find himself sitting on the bench early with foul trouble.  As mentioned before pretty much every game, Cody is one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls and getting to the line, and this could be especially critical in East Lansing.  What is interesting is that Christian is starting to catch-up to Cody in this category and has now passed up Victor to move to second on the team.  This has come thanks to an increased aggressiveness on Christian's part, something that Hoosier Nation is very excited to see.  If Christian and Cody can keep this up, it could be a long night for the Spartan big men.

It will be interesting to see how Appling rebounds in this game.  The junior has been putting up good numbers since that late January game, but there is always the human element that must be taken into account.  There is the chance that he could come out over-aggressive in trying to prove himself, which could land his butt on the bench if he isn't careful.  There is also the possibility that he comes out hesitantly in an effort to show that his foul trouble and sloppy play were exceptions to the rule, which could make him both softer on defense and less likely to make hard drives to the basket on offense.  Appling, however, is a seasoned veteran of a Tom Izzo squad, and I do not see either of those possibilities actually happen.  I foresee Yogi having his hands full all night, but I also see him holding up to the pressure.

Final Thoughts:

This game is a toss-up.  It could easily go either way.  This has the potential to be one of the best games this season; the Big Ten outright title is on the line and a number one seed in the tourney (particularly the advantageously-located Indianapolis regional) is up for grabs.  If the Hoosiers could win this, it would also be the first time since 1991 that the Hoosiers get a win in East Lansing.

The two biggest factors in this game for both teams are turnovers and free throws.  The Hoosiers and Spartans combined for 34 turnovers, and each team continues to average pretty high turnover rates.  But in a game like this every possession counts, and the team that can hold onto the ball the most will have a big advantage in this contest.  Free throws, especially late, could also be the difference in this game.  The Hoosiers tend to get to the line more frequently and hit a higher percentage on those shots, but the hostile environment of the Breslin Center could make anything possible.

Hoosier Highlights:

Jordan Hulls - Jordy's 11 points against Purdue put him at 1,249 in his career, passing up Dick Van Arsdale.  Next on the list is twin brother Tom Van Arsdale with 1,252 points.

Cody Zeller - Cody is now up to 994 points in his career, six away from 1,000.

Victor Oladipo - Victor has 986 points in his career, 14 away from the 1,000-point club.  He also has 59 steals on the season (4th all-time for the Hoosiers), and is three steals away from joining Isiah Thomas in third.  Victor also has 142 steals in his career (5th place) and needs six steals to join Alan Henderson in fourth place.

Image from iuhoosiers.com

No comments:

Post a Comment