The Indiana Hoosiers (10-2) take on the Georgetown Hoyas (7-3) on Saturday at noon on ESPN2. This us a neutral site game, being played at Madison Square Garden. The last time these teams met was two years ago at the Barclay's Center in NYC, with the Hoosiers winning 82-72 in overtime. Each team has one retutning starter from that game, Yogi Ferrell for the Hoosiers and Mikael Hopkins for the Hoyas.
The Teams:
The Hoyas have three losses on the season, all of which have come against teams which have been ranked this season (Wisconsin, Butler, and Kansas). The only quality win for Georgetown came in a 66-65 overtime victory against then-18th-ranked Florida (who has since fallen out of the rankings). They are averaging about 74 points per game this season.
The Georgetown offense has been solid this season, even as they play at a fairly slow pace. They shoot the ball pretty well overall, with an effective field goal percentage of 52.5%, bolstered by hitting 53% of their two-point shots. They have also excelled at crashing the offensive glass, grabbing the rebound on 41% of their misses, good for ninth in the country. They are not typically a deep-shooting team, averaging just over five made threes per game (compared to an average of nine made threes per game for the Hoosiers). The big knock on the Hoya offense this season has been its propensity to turn the ball over, ranking 223rd (out of 351 teams) by coughing up the ball on 21% of their possessions.
In comparison, the Indiana defense has been about average this season, allowing teams to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 47%, with two-point percentage at 48%. The Hoosiers have had trouble getting defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to grab boards on 34% of their misses (ranked 259th out of 351). Typically, Indiana has also struggled to force turnovers, with a defensive turnover rate of just 17%.
The Hoya defense so far this season has been solid as well, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 44%. They have excelled at forcing teams to turn the ball over, with a defensive turnover rate of 22%. They have struggled so far with defensive rebounding, allowing opponents to rebound on 33% of their misses (242nd out of 351). Georgetown has also been average in their perimeter defense, with opponents shooting greater than 30% from deep. They also have had some issues with fouling and sending teams to the free throw line, with a defensive free throw rate of 41%, meaning opponents are shooting roughly two freebies for every five field goal attempts.
The Hoosier offense has been stellar this season, with an effective field goal percentage of 58% (good for 13th in the country) and three-point percentage of 42% (5th in the country). They have also been very good at offensive rebounding (grabbing the board on 37% of their misses) and not turning the ball over (coughing it up on just under 17% of their possessions). IU is also getting a higher percentage of their points from beyond the arc compared to the average Georgetown opponent, at the same time as they are less reliant than Georgetown opponents.
The Matchups:
I'll admit that for the most part the individual matchups do not mean too much, as the Hoosiers will likely spend a large portion of this game in some variation of a zone defense to account for being severely undersized. That being said, the matchups of the point guards and centers will be particularly important. I'll look at those more closely and include a brief discussion of the others.
Ferrell will be tasked with stopping Georgetown's leading scorer in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, a 6'3" junior out of Indianapolis. He's averaging 13 points and four assists per game while also sporting a low turnover rate. He does a decent job of both drawing and not committing fouls, and he is absolutely deadly when he gets to the free throw line, hitting over 90% of them (39-42). At the same time as he is accurate from the line, the same cannot be said of his perimeter shooting, where he's 12-44 (27%) on the season. Ferrell is IU's best defender and is good at not fouling, making him ideal for guarding Smith-Rivera.
Hanner Mosquera-Perea will have the more difficult challenge of guarding senior Joshua Smith, who is 6'10" and a whopping 350 pounds (compared to Mosquera-Perea's 6'9", 225 pounds). He's a very good offensive rebounder, but only ends up with 6.5 rebounds per game. He also draws fouls well, as his size would suggest, but he's iffy at hitting the ensuing free throws (only 60%). He's second on the team in scoring at almost 13 points per game, and hits a respectable 64% of his shots. He also uses more possessions than any other Hoya, meaning that if the ball gets to him in the post he's likely going to go up with it. Smith does commit a lot of fouls (which also goes with his size), which can contribute to him only staying on the court for an average of 22 minutes per game. This gives a bit of hope for Mosquera-Perea, as he should be able to both outrun the bigger opponent and he (and the rest of the team) should be able to force him into foul trouble. This will be majorly helpful, although Mosquera-Perea (and anyone else) will still be severly undersized.
The rest of the individual matchups are not quite as critical in this game, with zone defense taking the place of man-to-man. Robert Johnson, Indiana's normal two-guard at 6'3", will likely see some time against freshman LJ Peak, who is more of a small forward at 6'5". He is Georgetown's third leading scorer with 10 points per game. He does a decent job of drawing fouls and doesn't foul much, and he hits 72% of his free throws and 32% of his threes.
James Blackmon Jr., the third guard for the Hoosiers will be matched up with senior guard Jabril Trawick, only giving up an inch of height. Trawick isn't much of an offensive threat, scoring seven points per game. He is, however, efficient when he does shoot, hitting 54% of his three-pointers (7-13) and 60% of his shots overall. He also commits fouls but does not consistently draw many on opponents. Being the weakest of the guard defenders, Blackmon Jr. is best suited to go against Trawick, even if common sense says he and Johnson should be reversed.
The final starting matchup comes down to Troy Williams versus 6'9" senior Hopkins. He also isn't much of a threat on offense, averaging five points per game, hitting only 37% of his shots (low for a bigger guy). He does rebound well, pulling down six per game, and is a solid shot-blocker at two per game. On the other hand he turns the ball over more than any other Hoya and also commits a lot of fouls.
The key reserve for Georgetown is 6'8" Paul White, who pitches in eight points per game. He's a decent shot blocker and defensive rebounder, and he doesn't turn the ball over much. Whoever guards him will need to make sure to get out to him on the perimeter, as he's hit 10-19 threes he's taken (which actually averages out to only hitting one per game on two attempts). He also hits free throws well at 80%, but doesn't find himself at the line often. The guys most likely to draw this assignment off the Hoosier bench are Collin Hartman and Emmitt Holt, although the latter may have some difficulty following him put to the perimeter. I should note here that Hartman has the fourth-highest offensive rating per KenPom, showing how strong he's been while he's in.
Final Thoughts:
This is a tall order for the Hoosiers, who are undersized at every position. What this game is going to come down to is Indiana’s ability to play defense because the offense has been showing up consistently (including against the best defensive team in the country in Louisville). If the normal IU defense shows up, it'll take an extraordinary shooting performance to stay in it. But by doing a just a little better at keeping opponents out of the lane, or forcing turnovers, or preventing offensive rebounds, this could be a big game for the Hoosiers. Indiana showed maturity and determination in beating Butler a week ago, and if the same type of team shows up the Hoosiers will succed even while being short.
KenPom likes the Hoyas by a score of 78-76 with a 44% chance of a Hoosier victory. This is about as much of a wash as the algorithms will spit out. I think Indiana comes into this fired up to finish the non-conference schedule strong and win, despite giving up too many offensive rebounds and not forcing many turnovers, with a score of 83-78.
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