The Hoosiers visit the Cornhuskers of Nebraska at 5:30pm on
New Year’s Eve on the Big Ten Network.
This is the conference opener for both teams, and is the third straight
season in which Indiana starts its Big Ten season on the road on Dec. 31st. The most recent of these was an 83-80
overtime loss at Illinois which saw the team turn it over 23 times and Yogi go
off for a career-high 30 points.
The Teams:
Nebraska comes into Big Ten play with a record of 8-4, with
losses to Rhode Island, Creighton, Incarnate Word, and Hawaii. Their best win came in double overtime
against Cincinnati by a score of 56-55.
That’s right, they scored 56 points in 50 minutes of play. The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are
averaging 86 points per game.
The best word for the Cornhusker offense so far this season
would be anemic. Per KenPom, Nebraska
ranks 247th in offensive efficiency, with a mediocre effective field
goal percentage, which gives weight to made three-pointers. They also turn the ball over at a high rate,
giving it up on almost 22% of their possessions, which ranks 274th. The lone bright spot for the Huskers is their
ability to get to the free throw line, at which they rank 33rd. Offensive rebounding and three-point shooting
are also not particularly impressive, ranking 300th and 262nd
respectively.
Nebraska’s defense, on the other hand, finds itself among
the top in the country, ranked 17th by KenPom. They have been particularly good defending
the three, holding teams to 29% from deep.
Those teams, however, do not feature any that light it up from deep,
with an average ranking of 215 in the category.
The Huskers have also been good at forcing turnovers, with opponents
coughing it up on almost 23% of their possessions. Nebraska has also had moderate success in
preventing teams from grabbing offensive rebounds, holding opponents to grabbing
boards on 30% of their misses.
The Huskers have a fairly short rotation, consisting
primarily of their five starters and two substitutes. They are led by 6’6” junior guard Terran
Petteway, who is averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds, and almost three assists
per game. He hits around 42% of his
shots and 73% of his free throws. The
second leading scorer is 6’7” junior forward Shavon Shields, who puts up 17
points, seven rebounds, and two assists per game while hitting 49% of his shots
and 88% of his free throws. There’s a
drop-off in points after these two, with the next leading scorers being 6’10”
junior forward Walter Pitchford and 5’9” junior guard Benny Parker, who each
score seven points per game. Pitchford
also contributes five rebounds and shoots 34% from the floor, and Parker adds
two assists and two steals to go with shooting 44% from the floor and 47% from
deep. The final starter is 6’7” senior
forward David Roberts, who chips in five points and six rebounds per game. The only two other Huskers who have played in
every game so far are 6’4” sophomore guard Tai Webster and 6’2” freshman guard
Tarin Smith. Webster averages five
points and two rebounds while Smith adds four points and a rebound.
Where the Nebraska offense has faltered, the Indiana offense
has thrived. The Hoosiers come in at 10th
in the KenPom efficiency rankings. This
is highlighted by excellent shooting, particularly from the perimeter, where they
are averaging over nine made threes per game.
This comes after facing several of the top perimeter-defending teams,
including Pitt (ranked 21st), Butler (ranked 23rd),
Louisville (ranked 29th); the Hoosiers put up seven threes against
Pitt (41%), eight against Butler (47%), and eight against Louisville (40%). Indiana has also done a decent job of
grabbing offensive rebounds and not turning the ball over (despite what they
showed against Georgetown).
Also where the Husker defense has been strong, the Hoosier
defense has struggled. Indiana is ranked
only 189th in the KenPom efficiency rankings, which stems from an
inability to force turnovers (ranked 321st) or to stop opponents
from grabbing offensive rebounds. The
Hoosiers have done a decent job at defending the perimeter, however that is
likely exaggerated by the poor shooting abilities of their opponents. The defensive area where Indiana has seen
success is keeping opponents off the free throw line, where they rank 16th
in the country.
The Hoosiers have maintained a steady starting lineup of
late, with a floor general in 6’0” junior guard Yogi Ferrell. He has been the constant so far this season,
averaging 17 points, four rebounds, and five assists in a team-high 32 minutes
per game. The newcomers in 6’4” James
Blackmon Jr. and 6’3” Robert Johnson round out the starting trio of
guards. Blackmon Jr. averages 18 points
and five rebounds per game while shooting 44% from deep, and Johnson
contributes 9.5 points, four rebounds, and three assists. The lone sophomore of the starters, 6’7” Troy
Williams, has performed well since a poor outing against Louisville, even
picking up a national player-of-the-week honor.
He’s scoring 13.6 points per game while leading the team with six
rebounds per game to go along with two assists and a steal. The final starter is 6’9” Hanner
Mosquera-Perea, who has had an up-and-down season thus far, averaging eight
points and five rebounds to go with almost two blocks per game. The Hoosiers have five more players who are
seeing around 10 minutes per game or more in Nick Zeisloft (the shooter who is
also a fair distributer), Emmitt Holt (a semi-skilled young big man who is
gaining his confidence), Collin Hartman (the guy who does a little bit of
everything and actually holds the third best offensive rating in the country
per KenPom), Max Hoetzel (who has shown an improved knowledge of court
awareness), and Stan Robinson (who has shown flashes of the great driver he is
even as he struggles with turnovers).
This gives the Hoosiers a bit more depth than the Huskers, something
they can exploit if they can keep the pace quick.
The Matchups:
As with the Georgetown game, the matchups against Nebraska
may not be as critical because the Hoosiers are likely to use a zone of some kind
for a decent chunk of the game, as the Huskers are taller at most
positions. The only obvious pairing is
Mosquera-Perea taking on Pitchford, as they are the two tallest. Everywhere else, your guess is about as good
as mine. Here’s how I see it playing out
while Indiana is in man-to-man:
Ferrell vs. Petteway. With the exception of a game like Wisconsin
(whose best player is the really tall Frank Kaminsky), Ferrell will always draw
the assignment of the opponent’s best player, even if that player is six inches
taller. He is the best Hoosier defender,
whether that be on the perimeter or in the post, and the success of the Indiana
defense likely begins and ends with him.
Petteway is the heart of the Husker team and is responsible for almost
30% of the team’s scoring. Even as he
uses a large chunk of his team’s possessions, he assists at a high rate as
well. He also draws fouls and gets to
the free throw line at a decent clip, where he hits 73% of his shots. On the other end of the court, Petteway is a
shot-blocking threat, something of which the Indiana drivers will need to be
aware.
Johnson vs. Shields. Shields is the other half of the Husker
scoring duo, accounting for another 25% of the Nebraska offense (for those of
you scoring at home, that’s almost 55% of the points coming from two
guys). It seems a little odd to put the
6’3” Johnson on the guy, who is about four inches taller, but he is IU’s
second-best defender and he would be likely to guard a taller guy anyway (the
only shorter option is Parker, who isn’t an offensive threat). An interesting idea would be to switch
Johnson and Williams throughout the game to try to disrupt Shields and put a
bigger body on him from time to time.
But either way, whoever is guarding him has to be careful on drives
because Shields has excelled at drawing fouls and getting to the line, where he
hits north of 87% of his shots. He hasn’t
been a particular threat from deep so far this season at 28%, and this isn’t
radically lower than his percentage last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to
magically go off from deep. This gives
whoever is guarding him the opportunity to sag off just a little bit in
anticipation of the drive.
Blackmon Jr. vs.
Parker. By Big Ten standards, Parker
is very short at 5’9” (and people were calling Jordy Hulls short?), so it would
make some sense to put Ferrell, the shortest Hoosier, on him. Ferrell, however, is the most aggressive
Hoosier defender, making his matchup with Petteway more important. Johnson, the second shortest Indiana starter,
is already otherwise occupied, meaning that Blackmon Jr. is left to handle the
point guard. Parker has the tendency to
defer to his teammates in scoring, racking up assists instead. But he also coughs the ball up quite a bit,
even if he does get more than enough steals to balance it. He is another Husker who has not taken many
deep shots, even if his three-point percentage is relatively high (8-17 for
47%).
Williams vs. Rivers. While I could see Williams and Johnson
switch around a bit (meaning Johnson could see time against Rivers as well), I
think Williams matches up better against Rivers. While Williams is an explosive athlete, he
has not shown much (other than an ability to block the occasional shot) on the
defensive end, making a matchup with Shields more difficult and one with Rivers
more likely. Rivers uses very few
possessions when on the floor, but hits a decent percentage when he decides to
shoot. He is also a good rebounder on
both sides of the ball, making it critical for Williams (or anybody else), to
get a body on him after shots go up.
Mosquera-Perea vs.
Pitchford. In a complete reversal of
the Georgetown game, the Huskers do not really play a prototypical big man
(especially not compared to the 350 pound Joshua Smith for the Hoyas). Instead Mosquera-Perea will be tasked with
guarding a guy who is 6’10” but who thinks and plays more like a guard. I’m not even joking. Pitchford has made more three-pointers (18) than
he has two pointers (13), and has attempted far more from deep than in the
paint (58 three-point attempts compared to 33 from closer). He also does not get as many rebounds as you
would expect a big man to get, averaging only five per game (although it has
been a bit higher in the last few games).
This will be an interesting challenge for Mosquera-Perea a game after
facing the biggest player he will likely see this season, and will be a chance
to see if his footwork and speed have improved at all since last year. If he can guard Pitchford out at the
perimeter without giving up too many open looks in the paint, he’ll show true
improvement.
Zeisloft vs. Webster. In many of the big games so far this
season, the key players off the bench have been of the forward/center variety,
meaning that the key subs for Indiana have been of the Hartman/Holt
variety. That is not the case against
Nebraska (not to say that guys like Hartman and Holt won’t be important because
they will be), as the only two Husker non-starters to get into every game this
year have been the two guards of Tai Webster and Tarin Smith. This means that guys like Zeisloft and even
Robinson become all the more important.
Zeisloft has done well in his role off the bench, not taking any more
than the game gives him. For Nebraska,
Webster has done a decent job at getting to the free throw line (hitting 74%),
but he does turn the ball over a lot and commits more fouls than I’m sure coach
Tim Miles is comfortable with. He has
not been a threat from deep, a stark contrast to Zeisloft, who can very quickly
light it up.
Final Thoughts:
A win in Lincoln (a place the Hoosiers have struggled) would
be a great way to erase the sting of losing a winnable game against Georgetown. Logic would say that the pressure is on the
Indiana offense, as it is going up against stiff completion in the Nebraska
defense. However, the Hoosier offense
has proven itself against several of the nation’s top defenses (that’s not to
say that they won’t go cold; that hasn’t happened as a team yet). I’d say it’s the Indiana defense which is under
pressure, needing to somewhat dominate against an inferior opponent offense, on
their home court. That last part is
particularly important, as the Hoosiers haven’t played a true road game yet
(although they have two games at Madison Square Garden and one game at Banker’s
Life Fieldhouse). To be fair, this is
probably the best time to get a couple of road games out of the way in the Big
Ten, when students are on Christmas Break and home crowds are a bit less rowdy
and excitable.
KenPom likes the Huskers by a single point (70-69) with a
48% chance of a Hoosier victory. The
Vegas line currently has the Hoosiers as 3.5-point underdogs, while the Sagrin model
likes the Hoosiers by 2.5. Once again,
this is about as close to a wash as you can get, and it truly could go either
way. My gut tells me that the Hoosiers
bounce back aggressively after the Georgetown loss, especially on the defensive
end. It says that the Hoosiers dominate
the boards while maintaining their blistering offense. It also says that Petteway and Shields get
lots of points and that Pitchford maybe a bit above his average. My gut tells me that Indiana walks out of Lincoln
with a 76-65 victory to begin Big Ten play.
But who knows, that could be all of the holiday food talking.
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