When possible, I'm going to do a preview of the upcoming game. But I tend to be busy with classes, so it probably won't happen often.
So, Mt. St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are currently 4-4 heading into Assembly Hall (which should be interesting as Assembly Hall holds over 8 times the number of people as are enrolled at Mt. St. Mary's). The Mountaineers are coming off of a loss to Loyola-Maryland, and their averages are fairly underwhelming: 61.3 points, 24.3 rebounds, 10.8 assists, and 41% field goal. They have three players, Rashad Whack (11.5), Julian Norfleet (10.5), and Sam Prescott (10.3), averaging double-digit points.
The offensive stat which stands out the most to me is that they are averaging almost 26 three-point attempts per game (compared to the 19 which IU chuck up), connecting on almost 9 per game. That's only 34%, but there is something to be said for the theory that if you take more shots, you'll miss more shots but also make more shots. But this style seems to rely too heavily on the three, and all it takes is a particularly off game to make a not-fun night.
Defense, however, is where this game could get interesting. The Mountaineers' coach, Jamion Christian, was an assistant at VCU up until this season. Now, VCU should sound very familiar to anyone who followed the Hoosiers last year, and I'll get to them in a second. But the defense of Mt. St. Mary's is basically the same as that of VCU, just with less experience. The Mountaineers play defense for what seems like the sole purpose of getting steals. They rank 5th in the country in forcing turnovers. But, when your primary goal is to steal, it leaves some vulnerabilities. It's pretty easy to run up the foul count very quickly, which could lead to a lot of free throws for a Hoosier team which is already shooting a lot of them. This defense also has the problem of allowing teams to get easy buckets. Mt. St. Mary's' opponents are hitting a ridiculous 62% of their 2-pointers.
Now, a bit about VCU. IU faced Shaka Smart and his Rams on the way to the Sweet Sixteen last year in a very tight 63-61 game. Taking a quick look at those stats, and the first thing your eye comes to is that IU turned the ball over 22 times. The Hoosiers turned it over fewer times in the rest of the Tourney combined than they did against VCU (including only 8 turnovers against eventual-champion Kentucky), and it's almost double the number of turnovers IU averaged against Big Ten opponents. Now, luckily for IU, the Hoosiers have improved in the turnover category, averaging a respectable 12 turnovers per game, and Jordy Hulls is doing a phenomenal job at handling the ball, turning it over only 9 times in 10 games.
The Hoosiers are also coming off of a loss, an overtime nail-biter to in-state rival Butler. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Hoosiers had trouble rebounding and defending the perimeter, the latter of which could become important against Mt. St. Mary's. IU has five guys averaging double-digits: Cody Zeller (15.7), Victor Oladipo (13.2), Will Sheehey (12.2), Christian Watford (12.1), and Jordy (11.5). They are coming in averaging 88.8 points, 42.6 rebounds, 17 assists, and 51% field goal.
I foresee a few things happening:
1. The Hoosiers are going to grab every single rebound which comes anywhere remotely close to them. They are going to look like they have basketball-magnets in their hands. As Coach Crean said after the Butler game, "I’m excited about the rebounding drills we’re gonna do, I’m not sure there will be many people that will be sharing that joy with me, but I know I’ll be excited about it because, right now, that’s an area we've got to really shore up." I'm betting that this was a strong focus in the practices since Saturday, meaning these guys are going to come out ready to prove that they can get the boards. It will be especially helpful that the Mountaineers do not have an abundance of height, which means that players like Cody, Christian, and Vic should all be crashing the boards hard.
2. IU will shoot layups... a lot of them. Not only has IU been settling for jump shots in the last few games and probably looking to correct that, but the Mountaineers being so focused on stealing the ball should lead to both very open lanes (which guys like Vic and Yogi will exploit at will) and very easy transition points (especially with Cody-the-gazelle sprinting up the court as he did against UNC). This will in turn lead to an absurdly high field goal percentage and probably a very high score.
3. IU will turn the ball over... probably a lot. There are two major reasons for this. First, this is where the Mountaineers thrive. This is what they do, and they do it pretty well. Second, any time you play as fast as the Hoosiers like to, you will turn the ball over. IU will probably take it at the Mountaineers and play quickly, a style which lends itself to a high turnover rate but at the same time a higher number of possessions to balance it.
4. The Mountaineers will try to camp out in 3-point land. They love the three, even more than the Hoosiers. And after watching a Rotnei-Clarke-spurred Butler shoot lights-out against the Hoosiers, they'll probably see this as their best option. It also won't hurt their case that they are undersized and will probably be reluctant to even try to venture much into Zeller-land. This means that the Hoosiers will need to lock-down on the perimeter, but also not go so far as to give the Mountaineers easy buckets.
Overall, this will be another blowout to add to the early-season nonconference list. I don't know if it'll be a Qdoba night (100+ points), but IU should at least hit their average. I see at least 6 Hoosiers in double-figure scoring (probably Cody, Vic, Jordy, Christian, Will, and either Yogi or Remy) and possibly two or three with double-doubles (Cody, Vic, and Christian could each end up with 10+ rebounds, and although less likely, Jordy or Yogi could end up with a lot of assists, particularly in transition). The biggest thing with this game is it gives a quick turnaround time after a tough loss, which allows the Hoosiers to correct their mistakes, sharpen their focus, and boost their confidence.
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