Monday, December 17, 2012

Season to date

Since I'm starting this in December and the season started in November, I'm going to give a basic run-down of what's happened this season up to now.

The Hoosiers are 9-1, and will hopefully be somewhere near the Top 5 (definitely Top 10) when the polls come out later today after being at the top of the polls since the preseason.  The lone loss came against Butler this past Saturday by 2 points in overtime (more on this later).  The wins have been against mostly cupcake teams.  The combined record of every team the Hoosiers beat is 48-39, and that includes two ranked teams in Georgetown and North Carolina.  If you take those two teams out, the record drops to 31-36.  So not much of a challenge.  IU is also leading the country in points per game at 88.8, is 9th in FG percentage, and 15th in both rebounds and assists per game.  Five Hoosiers are averaging double-digit points.

I'm not going to breakdown every single game (reference the previously mentioned cupcake-ness of most teams).  But there are some things which stand out.  The Hoosiers have had 2 games in which it scored at least 100 (Ball State and Central Connecticut State), and two more in the upper 90s (Bryant and Sam Houston State).  Half of the games were won by 30 points or more, and seven were won by 24 points or more (including against North Carolina).  All but 3 of these games were at the friendly environment of Assembly Hall, and those 3 were at neutral sites.  Georgia and Georgetown were played at the Barclay's Center (aka Assembly Hall East) in New York and Butler was at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indy.  These games were the only games within 20 points, and one of them was a loss.  But it does need to be noted that these were NOT away games.  The environments (even in Indy) were mostly-friendly, especially compared to Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan, all of which we'll be visiting at some point this season, not to mention Minnesota and Iowa.

Now, I will briefly address the Butler game, as I feel it is an important step in the season.  First, Butler was underranked.  They had already taken down an admittedly overranked UNC and Marquette.  And to be honest, when state bragging rights are on the line, any Indiana team can beat any other Indiana team on any given night (well, maybe not Purdue, but I'm sort of biased).  I did not get to attend this game and instead was watching it on CBS.  This does take away from what I can see; however, there were some important things I did notice.

1.  IU was out-physicalled by a smaller team.  Butler led in  rebounds, points-in-the-paint, and second-chance points.  Anthony Smith fouled out in regulation.  Cody Zeller had 0 fouls. In 37 minutes.  In a very physical game.  Now, I'm not one to advocate fouling just for the heck of it, but it should be basically impossible for Cody (or any other big man) to go that long without fouling.  If nothing else, there should be the typical don't-let-them-get-the-easy-layup foul. But no. So at the same time as the Hoosiers are 15th in the country in rebounding, they got out-rebounded by a smaller team.  Props to Yogi Ferrel for pulling down a career-high 8 rebounds. At 6'0".  He had as many rebounds as Cody and Christian Watford combined, which should never happen.  That is nothing against Yogi; he's an amazing player.  But he's 6'0", maybe.  Both Cody at 7'0" and Christian at 6'9" should have more boards than Yogi.  On a side note, this would have been an amazing opportunity for Derek Elston as basically an enforcer on the defensive end.  He's one of the most physical players on the team, and we could have used that on Saturday.

2.  Perimeter defense is an issue.   Butler went 11-24 from three-point land, with Rotnei Clarke going 5-11.  In comparison, IU was 5-12 as a team.  Now, there is a lot to be said of Clarke.  He's one of the best shooters I've seen, and that's saying something since I've been watching Hulls for going on four seasonsThis kid must have ice in his veins with some of the shots he made, while being guarded by Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey, two of IU's best defenders.  But, there were many times when someone was left open on the perimeter, whether it was a miscommunication (like toward the end of the game) or just simply slow help defense.  Whatever the problem, it needs to get sorted out, the sooner the better.

3.  IU is settling too much on offense.  Instead of going all the way to the hoop, the Hoosiers are taking mid-range jumpers, quite often forcing them more than necessary.  At the same time, our perimeter appears to have been shut down (at least by Butler).  This worries me with the caliber of shooters we have.  Christian has proven he also has ice in his veins, but he is very streaky in his shooting.  Jordy, as implied above, is one of the best shooters in the country.  His unique shot (instead of bringing it up in front of his face, he brings it up directly in line with his right elbow) is averaging 50% of the 3s he puts up.  Commentators such as Dick Vitale and Coach Bobby Knight have nothing but good to say about Hulls.  Yet he was limited to just two 3-pointers taken against ButlerThe Hoosiers need to find a way to get this kid open!  So many others on the team can make outside shots, including Remy Abell, Mo Creek, and Will Sheehey, with Jeremy Hollowell and Victor Oladipo able to put a few in from time to time as well.

4.  Free throws, free throws, free throws.  While 71% may look good for a team, missing 11 free throws in a game which came down to 2 points in overtime is a game-breaker.  Christian is doing very well in this aspect, making 91% of his attempts.  Yogi is making 90% and Remy is making 85%, but neither one has gone to the charity stripe very often.  Cody, on the other hand, is 66% from the free throw line, almost 10% lower than last season.  I'm not sure what's causing this, but he's already attempted 74 free throws in 10 games, so the more he can hit, the better IU will do.

As much as that game was not fun to watch as an IU fan, I think it will have about the same effect as the Hoosiers beating Kentucky last year did for Kentucky.  I'd rather see the loss now than in March or April.

To wrap this up, I'm going to give an overview of how the players have done so far this season.

Victor Oladipo - It is impossible to say enough about Victor Oladipo this season.  He has been the most consistent all-around so far, and his energy and passion have been invaluable.  As Dana O'Neil said on twitter, Victor is the Energizer Bunny... on speed.  He's everywhere at once and is one of the biggest pests I have ever seen on the defensive end.  He's also one of the most explosive drivers in the game.  He is turning over the ball less than last season and showing just an overall higher level of control (at the same time as he is incredibly emotional and passionate).  He has been my favorite player to watch by far, and it's hard to believe that he was ranked just 144 coming out of high school.  My one complaint is his mid-range and outside jump shot.  He has improved quite a bit over last season and he's more willingly taking these shots, but if he wants to stand a shot at being drafted after this (or hopefully next) season, he really needs to prove that he can make these shots in games and not just in practice.

Cody Zeller - This season has been somewhat less-than-expected for Cody so far.  He started off the season dealing with asthmatic bronchitis, which I know from experience is not fun at all and very difficult to play through.  But he should be back as close to 100% as a player is during the season at this point.  While he has been putting up points for the most part (even in an off game like Butler he had 18 points), some other numbers are concerning (at least in the fact that they haven't really gone up from last season).  He's averaging about 8 rebounds per game, which is not bad until you realize that he's a 7-footer who has been playing against mostly cupcakes.  While his numbers themselves are not bad, he just has not been as dominant of a force as he should be.  Based on his drive and work ethic, however, I expect this to change in the very near future, particularly when the Big Ten comes into the picture.

Jordy Hulls - Jordy has really impressed me overall this season, and as I wrote for a class paper, he's one of the basketball players I most admire.  He was told he could not compete in the Big Ten being only 6'0", but he is doing it game in and game out.  As mentioned, he's shooting 50% from three-point land.  He is also doing phenomenally well at handling the ball.  He has 41 assists to just 9 turnovers, for a 4.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is much better than last year's 1.5-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.  He is also spending more time on the court than anyone else at 28.8 minutes.  My complaint with Jordy is the same complaint from seasons past: defense.  While his defense has improved, he really needs to learn how to guard guys who are bigger than he is (which is quite a few of the guys he faces).  As long as he can keep the opponent in front of him and out of the post he tends to do just fine.  But Jordy is not as quick as Yogi or Vic, which means he has to work even harder to do the same things as them.

Yogi Ferrell - Yogi has also impressed me, especially considering he's only a freshman.  He has the same "undersized" problem as Jordy, but he tends to make up for it some with his incredible speed.  On the offensive end, he's averaging over 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is great considering the amount of time he has the ball in his hands.  He's also pulling down just over 3 boards per game, which is great for his size.  On the fun side, he also has 2 blocks so far this season.  As mentioned above, he is shooting about 90% from the free throw line while shooting around three free throws per game.  My big issue with Yogi is is overall shooting and field goal percentage.  He's averaging 6.5 points per game, which I could accept coming from such a great distributor.  However, he's only shooting 30% from the field, which means he's not capitalizing on his opportunities.  This could be an issue later in the season when the Hoosiers face teams with comparable levels of talent.

Christian Watford - Christian has begun this season with the same inconsistency which he displayed last season.  To be sure, he has had strokes of brilliance.  His free throw percentage is through the roof, especially considering he's averaging over 4 free throws per game.  But his field goal percentage is not much better than Yogi's at 40%.  This is not acceptable for the 6'9" senior.  He's averaging almost 7 rebounds a game which is alright but could definitely use some improvement.  Christian has proven that he can make clutch plays (see IU vs UK last year), and has shown that he can come up big in key games (he was named to the All-South Regional team last season).  But if he's really serious about going pro (and if IU really wants to stand a shot at postseason success) Christian needs to be that clutch player every game and not just once in a while.

Will Sheehey - Will has been great as 6th man, and could actually be the best 6th man in the country.  He's that kind of player opponents hate; just when they get used to the Hoosier starters, Will comes in and throws it all to hell because he plays so differently from anyone else.  He's shooting 56% while averaging 12 points per game, along with 4 rebounds.  There's a reason that Vic and Will have had the nickname "Sheeladipo" since they got here; they are very, very similar in their energy, passion, and work ethic.  Will, along with several other role players, could be starting just about anywhere in the country, which is incredibly impressive when you look at him coming to IU ranked just 131.

Remy Abell - Remy has been playing very well in the amount of time he's played.  He's hitting 62% of his threes and pulling down over 2 rebounds and putting up 7 points in 15 minutes.  He adds some welcome height to the guard lineup, and is very good at being pesky on defense.  His minutes will continue to increase throughout the season and into next year.  (On a side note, he is the leading scorer of any Hoosier player from the state of Kentucky in IU basketball history.  Remy is only the third such player however).

Jeremy Hollowell - Jeremy really impressed me the first few games but then seemed to get majorly shook up when IU went to New York and has only recently seemed to regain his confidence.  While he has made some freshman mistakes during the season, he has also made some very not-freshman-like plays to balance it out.  I see Jeremy's playing time dropping off a bit now that Hanner is eligible, but both will be critical if IU wants to succeed late in the season.

Maurice Creek - It cannot be understated how excited Hoosier Nation is to have Mo back on the court.  He has fought through so much to get to this point.  Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that Mo will ever get back to his freshman form (doing things like putting up 31 against Kentucky his freshman year).  He started off the season very well but has dropped off some since.  As he gets used to being back out there in games I hope to see his numbers improve.  But very little will ever move me as much as the standing-ovation reception Hoosier Nation gave Mo when he came into a game for the first time this season.

Austin Etherington - Unfortunately, Austin is out for the season with a fractured knee cap (sounds familiar, right?).  Up until that point, however, he was playing well, especially considering he was being asked to play bigger than he is.  About the only thing more moving than Mo's first game reception was the scene immediately after Austin went down.  It was obvious from the beginning that it was not good.  Then they brought out a stretcher.  When the training staff and coaches called for a couple guys to come out to help get Austin onto the stretcher, the entire team immediately jumped up and went out to the court as a group, surrounding their fallen friend.  It's been two weeks and I can still see it in my head like it was yesterday.  I hope to see Austin come back bigger and better next season, and I know he's got the work ethic to do so.

This was a very long post.  They won't all be this long, but there was a lot to cover from the first 10 games of the season.  My next post should come no later than Wednesday night, as that is when the next game will be played (against Mt. Saint Mary's), which should be another blow-out cupcake game.

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