On Thursday (at 8pm on Big Ten Network), Indiana will host the Mustangs of Southern
Methodist University, who are currently ranked 22nd. This will be the first real test for the
Hoosiers, who have beaten their two opponents by an average of 35 points. This is not true for the Mustangs, who faced
(and lost to) #13 Gonzaga on Monday.
The Teams:
This game just a few months ago looked likely to be a chance
to host a Top-10 team. Then the Mustangs
lost the #2 recruit in Emmanuel Mudiay (who is now playing professionally in
China) and then learned that big man Markus Kennedy would miss the fall
semester because of academic issues.
This still appears to be a team which can make its way into the NCAA
Tourney come March, but some of the excitement has worn off. The team is currently 1-1, having defeated
Lamar by 39 and lost to Gonzaga by 16.
They are also a bit taller than the Hoosiers, having an effective
height, a stat used by kenpom.com which looks at height by position, of +2.5
inches.
The SMU starting lineup has been consistent so far this
season, featuring the three-guard backcourt of Nic Moore, Keith Frazier, and
Ben Emelogu, along with forward Ben Moore and center Yanick Moreira. This is a team that is good at moving the
ball, with a high assist rate as a team, but also likes to keep the pace a bit
slower than the Hoosiers are going to want.
In fact, against Gonzaga, the Mustangs seemed to struggle the most when
they began to take more shots earlier in the possessions, pushing up their pace. They have had success so far this
season in grabbing offensive rebounds, something Indiana is really going to
have to watch. This Mustang team also
spreads out the scoring, not relying overly on any one player.
On the flip side, SMU has not done a good job thus far at
keeping opposing teams off of the offensive glass, which the Hoosiers will need
to exploit. They particularly have had
trouble with long rebounds off of missed threes, which should go in favor of an
Indiana team which likes to shoot from deep.
SMU has also struggled with keeping opponents off of the free throw
line, which the Hoosiers could use to their advantages if they can start
hitting their free throws consistently.
The Hoosiers will gain back three players who were suspended
for four games in sophomores Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson and freshman
Emmitt Holt, giving Indiana the fullest roster it will have this season. Even without these players, they have had no
problems handling their first two servings of cupcake, beating Mississippi
Valley State by 51 and Texas Southern by 19.
Kenpom.com has Indiana’s effective height at -.5 inches, making them one
of the shorter teams in the country and second only to Michigan State within
the Big Ten.
The Indiana starting lineup has been consistent throughout
the suspensions, but will likely see a shakeup now that these players have
returned. They have used a four-guard
lineup with Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Robert Johnson, and Nick
Zeisloft, along with forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea. A likely change would be to swap Zeisloft for
Williams to add some height to the lineup.
Either way, the Hoosiers also like to move the ball, becoming better at
making the extra pass than they were last year.
The highlight of the Indiana season so far has been the ability to shoot
the ball well (everywhere except the free throw line), having a ridiculous 71%
effective field goal percentage (55% from three-point and 65% from two). While I’m sure this will cool of some, the
Hoosiers will continue to shoot well. On
the defensive end, Indiana has had some success in keeping opponents off the
free throw line and limiting their three-point shooting, both of which will be
put to the test with the better level of competition.
Turnovers, on the other hand, have been a bit of an issue so
far for this year's version of the Hoosiers, giving it away on 21% of their
possessions. This is still a young team
and turnovers will happen, but limiting the dumb turnovers as much as possible
will be key. Rebounding has also been an
area of concern for the Hoosiers, even when facing much shorter
competition. They give up far too many
offensive rebounds, especially against smaller teams. The players are going to have to be physical
when crashing the boards most of the season when they are facing bigger teams
in order to give themselves the best chance possible to secure the ball.
The Matchups:
While it’s true that in general every matchup is important,
especially in a game against a ranked team, in this case there are three which
stand out as being particularly critical.
Those are the point guard match up of Ferrell versus Nic Moore, the big
men of Mosquera-Perea versus the duo of Moreira and Cannen Cunningham, and the
forwards of Ben Moore versus whoever the Hoosiers decided is the four-man.
The point guard matchup is really interesting for me, having
watched Nic Moore while he was at Warsaw High School (the rival of my beloved
Wawasee). This means that we have two
native Hoosiers facing each other at the point.
(As a side note, Indiana walk-on Nate Ritchie is a graduate of
Northridge High School, also in the same conference as Warsaw and Wawasee – go NLC!) As a fun added twist, Moore began his
collegiate career at Illinois State, the same school from which Nick Zeisloft
transferred to join Indiana, meaning the two were teammates for a while.
All of this aside, Nic Moore (I’m using both names in order
to distinguish him from his teammate Ben Moore) has really come onto the scene
of late, being named to the Wooden Award Watch List along with Ferrell. He is an assist-oriented point guard who can
shoot the ball well when he chooses to shoot, hitting 44% of his shots from deep last
season. He has quick hands on defense
and also plays the most minutes of anybody on the team. He does turn the ball over a bit, but that’s
to be expected with the team’s primary ball handler. Ferrell is a similar type of point guard,
often looking to assist just as frequently as he shoots. He is also dangerous from beyond the arc,
hitting over 40% of those shots. Ferrell
seems to drive a little more frequently than Nic Moore does, but he is also
listed as about three inches taller than Moore (although it’s probably more
like one inch). I will give a very
slight edge to Ferrell on this one, but it’s very close and both are going to
be key pieces for their teams.
On the other end of the height spectrum, the matchup of the
big men is going to go a long way toward defining how this season will play
out for the Hoosiers. While Moreira, who is 6’11”, is the
starting center, he and Cunningham (6’10”) split the time pretty evenly. In the case of Moreira, he is about two
inches taller but is actually a bit smaller than Mosquera-Perea (about five
pounds). He appears to have a solid
skillset on offense, but is still trying to gain the same on the defensive end,
not being particularly effective at stopping opposing bigs. Against Gonzaga, Moreira seemed to force
drives and shots a bit, but he does get his fair share of offensive rebounds
too. Cunningham is about the same size
as Mosquera-Perea, but also seems to play toward the perimeter a bit too, even
if he’s not a real threat to shoot from there.
He’s been good at drawing fouls and he hits the ensuing free throws at a
high rate.
Mosquera-Perea appears to be better on the defensive end,
especially where blocking is concerned.
At the same time, he has cut back on the number of fouls committed from last year, but
this will be the first big test of that theory.
He can also be very quick up the court when he wants to be, making
himself a big target in transition.
While his offense has been hit-or-miss thus far, if he can concentrate
on catching the ball before doing anything else and on not making a
Sports-Center-Top-10 play every time he touches the ball, his skillset should be enough to keep
this team going.
The final matchup holds a bit of uncertainty, as Ben Moore
is the leading scorer for SMU and it’s unknown who Coach Crean will start in
the four-slot. The natural player to
guard him would be Williams, who is returning from suspension, as he is more of
a typical four than Zeisloft, or Johnson, or Blackmon. However, it has not yet been said if the
returning players would immediately join the starting lineup or if a further
part of their punishment is that they do not automatically regain that privilege. If the latter is the case, there are a couple
different options to guard Ben Moore. If
the lineup stays the same from the first two games, that player is Johnson,
though that is giving up a lot of height.
The possibly more tempting option would be to start the rehabbing Collin
Hartman, who is closer in height.
Whoever it is guarding Ben Moore will have a pretty tough
task. He is the leading scorer for SMU
at 16.5 points per game. He’s versatile
in scoring, hitting mid-range jumpers with ease (especially out of the
pick-and-roll) and driving exceptionally well, even over taller players. One byproduct of this is that he draws fouls
well, even if he isn't always consistent at hitting the free throws. He also grabs offensive rebounds at a high
rate, something his defender is going to have to watch.
While Williams is in, even if he isn’t starting, he should
match up well with Ben Moore. He is a
bit of an unknown at this point, having not played this season, however the
coaches say he has improved from last year.
With that in mind, Williams was good last year at not committing fouls,
which could come in handy against Moore.
He also has a ridiculous vertical leap, helping to boost his rebounding
numbers on both ends of the court. Last
year, he wasn’t much of a threat from deep, but was a great driver who could
either take it to the hoop himself or dish it off; this should remain the same
this year, especially with so many threats on the perimeter. Finally, Williams is explosive and quick down
the court, which should aid the Hoosiers in speeding up the game beyond what
the Mustangs want.
Johnson on Ben Moore is a bit of a stretch, seeing as it
would mean giving up five inches of height.
On the other hand, he has had stellar defense for a freshman, with quick
hands to create havoc. He has also shown
the ability to not foul, being one of the best on the team in the
category. In reality, however, Johnson
should only be used against Ben Moore under desperate circumstances, allowing
him to better match up with an equal-sized guard.
The final option for a starter against Ben Moore, and one
who will see time against him regardless, is Hartman. He is of equal size, and has been
particularly effective on defense this season. He has been very physical, especially against
bigger guys, which is really impressive considering he tore his ACL only nine
months ago. The one knock on Hartman
right now (in the small sample size of games so far) is that he’s been a little
foul-happy, which doesn’t work quite so well when the person being guarded is
good at drawing fouls. I think Hartman
will be able to do well against Ben Moore as long as he plays the way he has
been so far this season.
Final Thoughts:
This could be a good first test for the Hoosiers. It will be interesting to see how the three
returning players blend with the rest of the team, especially Holt, who joined
the team after the Canada exhibition trip.
His size could be really important for a severely undersized team if he
can even have 10-12 minutes of solid play a game. Williams and Robinson will have a bit of an
easier time coming back, being veterans for Indiana.
Ken Pomeroy has the Hoosiers winning 70-65 with a 71% chance
of success. If Indiana can push the pace
just a little bit and make the Mustangs uncomfortable, this five-point
difference could grow. Should the pace
slow down, however, the Hoosiers have not had recent success at playing slower
ball. I’m going to basically go with
Pomeroy on the differential on this one, but I’m also going to push the score
just a bit to somewhere around 78-72.
But your guess is probably as good as mine at this point.
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