That's the Game: Nebraska

The Hoosiers squared off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers on New Year’s Eve.  And what a great end to the year it was, with both the Indiana men’s basketball team (70-65 over Nebraska) and the Indiana women’s basketball team (70-51 over #24 Michigan State) picking up wins in conference play.  Against Nebraska, the Hoosiers were able to overcome an offensive lull and poor play in general in the middle of the game to start conference play on a high note with a road win.  It wasn’t always pretty, but a Big Ten road win is a Big Ten road win.

Despite some early turnovers and all-around bad ball movement, the Hoosiers built up a lead, which was as large as 16 points in the first half.  This was in part fueled by the aggressive play of IU’s post players, with Hanner Mosquera-Perea grabbing some key boards early but also picking up fouls as well, only playing four first-half minutes.  The player who came in for him, Emmitt Holt, picked up right where he left off, getting six points, four rebounds, and a block in the first half.  A testament to the solid interior play of the Hoosiers was the rebounding, where Indiana outrebounded the Huskers 26-14 and held Nebraska to a single offensive rebound.  As a complement to this aggressiveness, freshman Robert Johnson hit several key shots from deep on a night when the Hoosiers struggled to shoot.

With just under four minutes to play in the half, the Hoosiers held a 38-22 lead and looked to go into halftime comfortably.  The Huskers had other ideas, capitalizing on poor shot selection and overall poor play by the Hoosiers to cut that lead in half, going into the halftime with a score of 40-32.  The start of the second half didn’t look any better for Indiana, who saw two straight turnovers and two missed shots before scoring its first points about two minutes in.  Within the first four minutes of the half, the Huskers had taken their first lead since early in the game, and had built their biggest lead of the half with about 15 minutes to play.

Enter Mosquera-Perea, who picked up right where he left off in the first half.  He ended the game with his first career double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.  Several times on the offensive end the Hoosiers utilized his athleticism, running a pick-and-roll ending with Mosquera-Perea dashing to the basket for the alley oop from Yogi Ferrell.  Indiana was able to once again build up a double-digit lead with about four minutes remaining, and once again allowed that lead to disappear, with the game getting within three points with a minute to go.  But a combination of a stellar play by the Hoosiers and stumbles by the Huskers allowed Indiana to spend the final 30 seconds at the free throw line, where they hit just enough to keep the game at two possessions.  That stellar play for the Hoosiers?  With only 15 seconds remaining and the Hoosiers ahead by only four, James Blackmon Jr. approached the line for his second free throw, which he missed.  Nebraska’s do-it-all guard Terran Petteway secured the rebound, only to have Ferrell knock it off his knee out of bounds to secure another possession for the Hoosiers (which resulted in one more made free throw to seal the game).

The Good:

• Aggressiveness from big men.  This has already been addressed, but both Mosquera-Perea and Holt played the way the Hoosiers need them to in order to succeed.  They rebounded well and defended well for the most part (save a few moments being out of position).  While fouls were an issue for Mosquera-Perea early, it was a sign of his aggressiveness.  This was a good outing for the big men, especially after the drubbing they got going against Georgetown and Joshua Smith.

• Indiana’s defense as a whole.  With one critical exception, the Indiana defense played well, keeping the Huskers just under their season average of 68 points per game.  They shifted fairly well between defenses, although they stayed in the 2-3 zone quite a bit.  The Hoosiers rebounded about 82% of the missed Husker shots, something they needed to do against a poor offensive rebounding team.  There were also several instances where the Hoosiers played very good defense for 30 seconds, only to give it up in the final five of the shot clock.  Many would see this as an issue (and if it becomes habit it could be in close games), but this Nebraska team is one which likes to slow down play.  In fact, only three Big Ten teams play at a slower pace (Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan), and all four of these games are single-play (Michigan being the only one at home).  This means that even an anemic Nebraska offense is more accustomed to playing this slow offense than the Hoosiers are at playing slow defense.  For now, very good defense for 30 seconds is all the Hoosiers really need (at least until they play any of the other three slow teams).

• Yogi the leader.  The last few games, Ferrell put the team on his back by way of scoring points on points on points.  Against Nebraska, he led in other ways, including dishing out eight assists compared to only a single turnover.  He was a calming influence for a young team, helping to make sure that his teammates did not lose their heads, and he made the stellar play to give IU another possession to extend the lead late in the game.  In the past, Ferrell’s only real option for leadership was by taking control of the scoring (even as he did against Butler and Georgetown).  Now, he’s got more players around him who can pick up the points, taking much of that pressure off of Ferrell and allowing him to do what his team needs him to do.

• Offensive balance.  Indiana had eight different players score at least five points, led by Johnson with 14, Troy Williams with 13, and Mosquera-Perea with 12.  Compared to the Georgetown game where three players were responsible for over 80% of the team’s points, this game had more of the offensive balance the Hoosiers have shown much of the season.  It’s this balance which makes Indiana so dangerous, as any player can go off on any given night and almost every rotation player (with the exceptions of Mosquera-Perea and Holt) must be honored everywhere on the court.  While it is great to watch three players score 20 or more points, it’s even more exciting to see a whole bunch of guys get into the action.

• Toughness/grit.  This point is somewhat debatable, as the Hoosiers gave up double-digit leads twice in the game and looked anything but tough over several stretches.  But the difference between this season’s Indiana squad and last year’s (other than shooting abilities) is toughness down the stretch, the general ability to close out tight games with a win.  And as I said after Georgetown, this could be the difference-maker in the Big Ten season, as KenPom now predicts nine of the remaining 17 games to be decide by five or fewer points, with only two (a win over Rutgers and a loss to Wisconsin) being decided by more than 10 points.

The Not-so-good:

• Shooting.  The Hoosiers had their worst shooting performance of the season, and the only one where they hit fewer than 30% of their shots from the perimeter.  Johnson was the best shooter, going 3-6 from deep, followed by Blackmon going 2-5 (both of which were from the right wing, where he is shooting around 70% on the season).  Ferrell and Nick Zeisloft each hit one, but took five and six attempts respectively in order to do it.  Free throw shooting was also a concern, particularly down the stretch, as the Hoosiers hit only 53% of their freebies.  Zeisloft was the only Indiana player perfect from the line (2-2), while Blackmon Jr. 2-3.  Three different Hoosiers were 1-2 (Williams, Johnson, and Collin Hartman), and Mosquera-Perea was an anemic 2-5 and Robinson was 0-1.  That means that Indiana left eight points at the free throw line in a game that was separated by a single possession with a minute remaining.  The free throw shooting should be concerning for the Hoosiers going forward, as trouble there is completely preventable.  The team should not, however, lose sleep on the off-night shooting from the perimeter, as 13 other contests have seen the team shoot the ball better and a low performance was bound to happen sooner or later.

• Blackmon Jr.’s shot selection.  Blackmon Jr. ended the game a paltry 2-9 from the field, both of them being three-pointers.  Now, I in no way want to discourage him from shooting the ball; that would actually likely be counterproductive to his development.  What he needs to do, however, is do a bit better job at picking his shots.  He was 0-4 from two-point range, some of which stems from the fact that pretty much any time he truly drives he goes up with the shot, even if it is contested and unwise.  He also had a three-pointer blocked which led to an easy bucket in transition for Nebraska.  Blackmon Jr. is better than this, and it is time for him to learn when to shoot and when to dish, something he is fully capable of doing within the remainder of the season.

• Perimeter defense.  The Hoosiers have had a rough season on the defensive end, and many people try to place much of the blame on the lack of a true physical big man.  But the first issue facing Indiana on defense comes at the perimeter, where opponents are able to drive at will, which would leave even the best of interior defenders vulnerable.  And this isn’t just one defender responsible, as every guard has had trouble, including the best defender in Ferrell.  To give guys like Mosquera-Perea and Holt, and even Williams and Hartman, half a chance to excel on the defensive end, the Hoosier guards must improve their lateral speed to better guard against the drive, because that is a weakness that any opponent, whether they play quickly or slowly, whether they have skilled big men or not, will take advantage of.

Final Word:

The Hoosiers did what they needed to do to earn a road win in the Big Ten, which will likely be few and far between around the league.  It wasn’t always pretty, and there were several instances where Indiana found itself in a lull.  But the team settled down and went back to playing their game every time, something which hadn’t happened in the past.  It was also an opportunity for the Indiana big men to be aggressive and gain confidence, which will be critical for the Hoosiers to have any kind of Big Ten success.  My guess is that they will follow up this poor shooting performance with a quality one, especially considering guys like Blackmon Jr., Zeisloft, and Ferrell are not going to be satisfied with their shooting and will have already hit the gym to get up shots.  This Indiana team, with its shooting abilities and new-found grit could be one which finds itself in the NCAA Tourney.  Or it could be one which limps through the Big Ten season on the way to another lackluster finish.  With the chaos in the Big Ten this season, I don’t think anyone could accurately predict anything beyond Wisconsin leading the conference and Rutgers finding itself in the bottom.

**Noteworthy News**

With eight assists, Yogi Ferrell moves to 342 assists in his career, good for 14^th all-time at Indiana.  He needs 356 to move into 13^th with Chris Reynolds and Isiah Thomas.

With one made three pointer, Ferrell has 140 in his career, needing only 10 more to move into 10^th place at IU with Rod Wilmont.  It also extends his record of consecutive games with a made three-pointer to 45.

Up Next:

The Hoosiers visit the Spartans of Michigan State on January 5^th at 7pm on the Big Ten Network.  The Spartans are 9-5 and are just coming off of a double-overtime home loss to Maryland.  I should have a preview of the game posted within the next few days.

The Game Ahead: Nebraska

The Hoosiers visit the Cornhuskers of Nebraska at 5:30pm on New Year’s Eve on the Big Ten Network.  This is the conference opener for both teams, and is the third straight season in which Indiana starts its Big Ten season on the road on Dec. 31^st.  The most recent of these was an 83-80 overtime loss at Illinois which saw the team turn it over 23 times and Yogi go off for a career-high 30 points.

The Teams:

Nebraska comes into Big Ten play with a record of 8-4, with losses to Rhode Island, Creighton, Incarnate Word, and Hawaii.  Their best win came in double overtime against Cincinnati by a score of 56-55.  That’s right, they scored 56 points in 50 minutes of play.  The Hoosiers, on the other hand, are averaging 86 points per game.

The best word for the Cornhusker offense so far this season would be anemic.  Per KenPom, Nebraska ranks 247^th in offensive efficiency, with a mediocre effective field goal percentage, which gives weight to made three-pointers.  They also turn the ball over at a high rate, giving it up on almost 22% of their possessions, which ranks 274^th.  The lone bright spot for the Huskers is their ability to get to the free throw line, at which they rank 33^rd.  Offensive rebounding and three-point shooting are also not particularly impressive, ranking 300^th and 262^nd respectively.

Nebraska’s defense, on the other hand, finds itself among the top in the country, ranked 17^th by KenPom.  They have been particularly good defending the three, holding teams to 29% from deep.  Those teams, however, do not feature any that light it up from deep, with an average ranking of 215 in the category.  The Huskers have also been good at forcing turnovers, with opponents coughing it up on almost 23% of their possessions.  Nebraska has also had moderate success in preventing teams from grabbing offensive rebounds, holding opponents to grabbing boards on 30% of their misses.

The Huskers have a fairly short rotation, consisting primarily of their five starters and two substitutes.  They are led by 6’6” junior guard Terran Petteway, who is averaging 19 points, 5.6 rebounds, and almost three assists per game.  He hits around 42% of his shots and 73% of his free throws.  The second leading scorer is 6’7” junior forward Shavon Shields, who puts up 17 points, seven rebounds, and two assists per game while hitting 49% of his shots and 88% of his free throws.  There’s a drop-off in points after these two, with the next leading scorers being 6’10” junior forward Walter Pitchford and 5’9” junior guard Benny Parker, who each score seven points per game.  Pitchford also contributes five rebounds and shoots 34% from the floor, and Parker adds two assists and two steals to go with shooting 44% from the floor and 47% from deep.  The final starter is 6’7” senior forward David Roberts, who chips in five points and six rebounds per game.  The only two other Huskers who have played in every game so far are 6’4” sophomore guard Tai Webster and 6’2” freshman guard Tarin Smith.  Webster averages five points and two rebounds while Smith adds four points and a rebound.

Where the Nebraska offense has faltered, the Indiana offense has thrived.  The Hoosiers come in at 10^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings.  This is highlighted by excellent shooting, particularly from the perimeter, where they are averaging over nine made threes per game.  This comes after facing several of the top perimeter-defending teams, including Pitt (ranked 21^st), Butler (ranked 23^rd), Louisville (ranked 29^th); the Hoosiers put up seven threes against Pitt (41%), eight against Butler (47%), and eight against Louisville (40%).  Indiana has also done a decent job of grabbing offensive rebounds and not turning the ball over (despite what they showed against Georgetown).

Also where the Husker defense has been strong, the Hoosier defense has struggled.  Indiana is ranked only 189^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings, which stems from an inability to force turnovers (ranked 321^st) or to stop opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds.  The Hoosiers have done a decent job at defending the perimeter, however that is likely exaggerated by the poor shooting abilities of their opponents.  The defensive area where Indiana has seen success is keeping opponents off the free throw line, where they rank 16^th in the country.

The Hoosiers have maintained a steady starting lineup of late, with a floor general in 6’0” junior guard Yogi Ferrell.  He has been the constant so far this season, averaging 17 points, four rebounds, and five assists in a team-high 32 minutes per game.  The newcomers in 6’4” James Blackmon Jr. and 6’3” Robert Johnson round out the starting trio of guards.  Blackmon Jr. averages 18 points and five rebounds per game while shooting 44% from deep, and Johnson contributes 9.5 points, four rebounds, and three assists.  The lone sophomore of the starters, 6’7” Troy Williams, has performed well since a poor outing against Louisville, even picking up a national player-of-the-week honor.  He’s scoring 13.6 points per game while leading the team with six rebounds per game to go along with two assists and a steal.  The final starter is 6’9” Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who has had an up-and-down season thus far, averaging eight points and five rebounds to go with almost two blocks per game.  The Hoosiers have five more players who are seeing around 10 minutes per game or more in Nick Zeisloft (the shooter who is also a fair distributer), Emmitt Holt (a semi-skilled young big man who is gaining his confidence), Collin Hartman (the guy who does a little bit of everything and actually holds the third best offensive rating in the country per KenPom), Max Hoetzel (who has shown an improved knowledge of court awareness), and Stan Robinson (who has shown flashes of the great driver he is even as he struggles with turnovers).  This gives the Hoosiers a bit more depth than the Huskers, something they can exploit if they can keep the pace quick.

The Matchups:

As with the Georgetown game, the matchups against Nebraska may not be as critical because the Hoosiers are likely to use a zone of some kind for a decent chunk of the game, as the Huskers are taller at most positions.  The only obvious pairing is Mosquera-Perea taking on Pitchford, as they are the two tallest.  Everywhere else, your guess is about as good as mine.  Here’s how I see it playing out while Indiana is in man-to-man:

Ferrell vs. Petteway.  With the exception of a game like Wisconsin (whose best player is the really tall Frank Kaminsky), Ferrell will always draw the assignment of the opponent’s best player, even if that player is six inches taller.  He is the best Hoosier defender, whether that be on the perimeter or in the post, and the success of the Indiana defense likely begins and ends with him.  Petteway is the heart of the Husker team and is responsible for almost 30% of the team’s scoring.  Even as he uses a large chunk of his team’s possessions, he assists at a high rate as well.  He also draws fouls and gets to the free throw line at a decent clip, where he hits 73% of his shots.  On the other end of the court, Petteway is a shot-blocking threat, something of which the Indiana drivers will need to be aware.

Johnson vs. Shields.  Shields is the other half of the Husker scoring duo, accounting for another 25% of the Nebraska offense (for those of you scoring at home, that’s almost 55% of the points coming from two guys).  It seems a little odd to put the 6’3” Johnson on the guy, who is about four inches taller, but he is IU’s second-best defender and he would be likely to guard a taller guy anyway (the only shorter option is Parker, who isn’t an offensive threat).  An interesting idea would be to switch Johnson and Williams throughout the game to try to disrupt Shields and put a bigger body on him from time to time.  But either way, whoever is guarding him has to be careful on drives because Shields has excelled at drawing fouls and getting to the line, where he hits north of 87% of his shots.  He hasn’t been a particular threat from deep so far this season at 28%, and this isn’t radically lower than his percentage last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to magically go off from deep.  This gives whoever is guarding him the opportunity to sag off just a little bit in anticipation of the drive.

Blackmon Jr. vs. Parker.  By Big Ten standards, Parker is very short at 5’9” (and people were calling Jordy Hulls short?), so it would make some sense to put Ferrell, the shortest Hoosier, on him.  Ferrell, however, is the most aggressive Hoosier defender, making his matchup with Petteway more important.  Johnson, the second shortest Indiana starter, is already otherwise occupied, meaning that Blackmon Jr. is left to handle the point guard.  Parker has the tendency to defer to his teammates in scoring, racking up assists instead.  But he also coughs the ball up quite a bit, even if he does get more than enough steals to balance it.  He is another Husker who has not taken many deep shots, even if his three-point percentage is relatively high (8-17 for 47%).

Williams vs. Rivers.  While I could see Williams and Johnson switch around a bit (meaning Johnson could see time against Rivers as well), I think Williams matches up better against Rivers.  While Williams is an explosive athlete, he has not shown much (other than an ability to block the occasional shot) on the defensive end, making a matchup with Shields more difficult and one with Rivers more likely.  Rivers uses very few possessions when on the floor, but hits a decent percentage when he decides to shoot.  He is also a good rebounder on both sides of the ball, making it critical for Williams (or anybody else), to get a body on him after shots go up.

Mosquera-Perea vs. Pitchford.  In a complete reversal of the Georgetown game, the Huskers do not really play a prototypical big man (especially not compared to the 350 pound Joshua Smith for the Hoyas).  Instead Mosquera-Perea will be tasked with guarding a guy who is 6’10” but who thinks and plays more like a guard.  I’m not even joking.  Pitchford has made more three-pointers (18) than he has two pointers (13), and has attempted far more from deep than in the paint (58 three-point attempts compared to 33 from closer).  He also does not get as many rebounds as you would expect a big man to get, averaging only five per game (although it has been a bit higher in the last few games).  This will be an interesting challenge for Mosquera-Perea a game after facing the biggest player he will likely see this season, and will be a chance to see if his footwork and speed have improved at all since last year.  If he can guard Pitchford out at the perimeter without giving up too many open looks in the paint, he’ll show true improvement.

Zeisloft vs. Webster.  In many of the big games so far this season, the key players off the bench have been of the forward/center variety, meaning that the key subs for Indiana have been of the Hartman/Holt variety.  That is not the case against Nebraska (not to say that guys like Hartman and Holt won’t be important because they will be), as the only two Husker non-starters to get into every game this year have been the two guards of Tai Webster and Tarin Smith.  This means that guys like Zeisloft and even Robinson become all the more important.  Zeisloft has done well in his role off the bench, not taking any more than the game gives him.  For Nebraska, Webster has done a decent job at getting to the free throw line (hitting 74%), but he does turn the ball over a lot and commits more fouls than I’m sure coach Tim Miles is comfortable with.  He has not been a threat from deep, a stark contrast to Zeisloft, who can very quickly light it up.

Final Thoughts:

A win in Lincoln (a place the Hoosiers have struggled) would be a great way to erase the sting of losing a winnable game against Georgetown.  Logic would say that the pressure is on the Indiana offense, as it is going up against stiff completion in the Nebraska defense.  However, the Hoosier offense has proven itself against several of the nation’s top defenses (that’s not to say that they won’t go cold; that hasn’t happened as a team yet).  I’d say it’s the Indiana defense which is under pressure, needing to somewhat dominate against an inferior opponent offense, on their home court.  That last part is particularly important, as the Hoosiers haven’t played a true road game yet (although they have two games at Madison Square Garden and one game at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse).  To be fair, this is probably the best time to get a couple of road games out of the way in the Big Ten, when students are on Christmas Break and home crowds are a bit less rowdy and excitable.

KenPom likes the Huskers by a single point (70-69) with a 48% chance of a Hoosier victory.  The Vegas line currently has the Hoosiers as 3.5-point underdogs, while the Sagrin model likes the Hoosiers by 2.5.  Once again, this is about as close to a wash as you can get, and it truly could go either way.  My gut tells me that the Hoosiers bounce back aggressively after the Georgetown loss, especially on the defensive end.  It says that the Hoosiers dominate the boards while maintaining their blistering offense.  It also says that Petteway and Shields get lots of points and that Pitchford maybe a bit above his average.  My gut tells me that Indiana walks out of Lincoln with a 76-65 victory to begin Big Ten play.  But who knows, that could be all of the holiday food talking.

That's the Game: Nebraska

So as expected, the Hoosiers pulled off the big win 76-47 after an exceedingly slow start.  Led by Cody Zeller with 16 points, three Hoosiers scored in double-digits with three more within two points.  Senior Christian Watford also pulled down 11 rebounds to go with his 13 points, and Victor Oladipo came close to the double-double with 13 points and eight rebounds.  But this game was not always as certain as the final score would make it seem.

In the first half, Nebraska ran their defense almost to perfection, holding the Hoosiers to 27 points on 32% field goal shooting and 29% three-point.  The one thing the Cornhuskers just couldn't quite master was avoiding fouls.  Both Brandon Ubel and Andre Almeida committed 3 fouls in the first 20 minutes, severely shortening the Nebraska lineup.  All of these fouls resulted in the Hoosiers going to the line 16 times, hitting 13 of them.  It didn't, however, cause as much trouble as it should have, as Cody was saddled with his own foul troubles as well, playing only 18 minutes in the entire game.  

As well as Nebraska played on defense in the first half, they couldn't get anything going on the offensive side, scoring only 18 points.  They shot a decent-for-opponents-at-Assembly-Hall 42%, but went 0-8 from three point land.  They also only went to the free throw line four times.  What really caused the Cornhuskers to struggle was their 10 turnovers at the half, which is about how many times they give the ball up in the entire game, and they just weren't able to ever get into sync.

The second half was all Indiana.  The Hoosiers poured in 49 points, scoring more in the half than Nebraska did in the entire game.  A big part of this came from some incredible three-point shooting, hitting 6-9 from deep.  They also got to the free throw line another 13 times, hitting 11, while only sending Nebraska seven times.  After scoring only three first-half points, Cody was able to add 13 in the second half.  Most importantly, the Hoosiers played with much more energy in the second half and looked much more like the top team in the country.  As long as they can continue to play like that, they will be tough to beat.

A byproduct of such a great second half was that many of IU's role players were able to get some good minutes.  Will Sheehey, who averages starter's minutes anyway, nine points and four rebounds.  Mo Creek hit his first three-pointer since the beginning of January and pulled down two rebounds in his 13 minutes.  Remy Abell was also able to break out of his shooting slump, scoring six points in 12 minutes.  Derek Elston and Jeremy Hollowell each also contributed valuable time, playing almost 10 minutes.  Even when they were not on the court, the benchmob found a fun way to get involved.

The first half of the IU vs Nebraska game was another example of the Hoosiers playing down to the level of their competition, but the second half was a show of what can happen when this team plays at its usual level.  The positive note is that many of the remaining games for the Hoosiers are against high-level opponents, hopefully meaning they should play at their best.


Hoosier Highlights:

Jordy - Jordy scored 8 points against Nebraska, putting him at 1,238 in his career.  He is now two points away from Dick Van Arsdale and 14 away from Tom Van Arsdale.

Cody - Cody's 16 points put him at 975 in his career and only 25 from 1,000.

Victor - Vic's 13 points put him at 983 in his career, putting him 17 away from the 1,000-point club.  He also grabbed 3 steals, giving him 59 on the season and moving him into 4th place on the all-time Hoosier season list.  He needs three steals to move into 3rd place with Isiah Thomas.  Vic is also up to 142 steals in his career, which puts him in 5th place all-time with Mike Woodson.  He needs six steals to move into 4th place with Alan Henderson.

Image from iuhoosiers.com