The Game Ahead: Michigan State

On Monday, Jan. 5^th, the Hoosiers travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans (airing on the Big Ten Network).  This is the second conference game for each, with Indiana standing at 1-0 in the Big Ten after defeating Nebraska on New Year’s Eve, and Michigan State at 0-1 after losing a heartbreaker in double overtime to Maryland.  This matchup is one of Indiana’s five “double plays” featuring a home and an away game (the others are Ohio State, Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers), and the next time these two teams play will be the last regular season game on March 7^th at Assembly Hall.

The Breslin Center has not been particularly friendly to the Hoosiers, with Indiana pulling off a single win there in the last decade and a half.  That one win?  That would be February of 2013, when an outburst (19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, and a block) from Victor Oladipo led the #1 ranked Hoosiers over the #4 ranked Spartans by a score of 72-68.  That game was actually the first win for Indiana at Michigan State since 1991, showing just how tough of a place the Breslin Center is to play.

The Teams:

The Spartans are 9-5 on the season, with no particularly impressive wins (read as no wins over a top 100 KenPom team; for the record, I do not count a Luke Fisher-less Marquette as top 100).  Most of the losses have been respectable (Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame, and Maryland), but one stands out as a head-scratcher: a 71-64 overtime home loss to Texas Southern.  Yes, the same Texas Southern that the Hoosiers beat by 19 at the start of the season.  If only the transitive property held true in sports (Team A beat Team B, Team B beat Team C, therefore Team A will beat Team C), but of course that would make for an even more confusing time in the Big Ten this season!

Defense has been a strength of the Spartans, coming in 24^th in the KenPom efficiency rankings.  They have done a very good job at limiting offensive rebound opportunities for opponents (17^th in the country) and at holding down opponent shooting percentages in general and particularly from deep, where their opponents are shooting a paltry 28% (ranked 22^nd).  The area which stands out as a weakness is forcing turnovers, where the Spartans rank only 246^th.  The offensive end has also been strong for Michigan State, where they rank 49^th in adjusted efficiency.  They shoot the ball well, and can even rival Indiana from the perimeter, where they hit 40.5% of their shots.  They have been mediocre at not turning the ball over and getting offensive rebounds, and their major weakness so far has been getting to the free throw line, where they rank 298^th.  They average 74 points and 39 rebounds per game, and they play at a moderate pace (67 possessions per game), which falls right around the middle of both the country and the conference. 

The starting lineup for the Spartans has been a bit more variable compared to many Big Ten teams, some of which spawns from injury (Brendan Dawson was out for an early game with the flu and then fractured his wrist and was out for two games).  The only two Spartans to have started all 14 games are 6’0” senior guard Travis Trice (#20) and 6’5” junior guard Denzel Valentine (#45).  Dawson (#22), a 6’6” junior guard/forward has started nine games, but has dealt with the illness/injury bug this season.  Other guys who have started this season include Bryn Forbes (#5), a 6’3” junior guard, Matt Costello (#10), a 6’9” junior forward, Marvin Clark (#0), a 6’6” freshman forward, and Gavin Schilling (#34), a 6’9” sophomore forward.  If I had to guess a starting lineup against the Hoosiers, I would say Trice, Valentine, Dawson, Forbes, and Schilling, as that was the lineup used against Maryland in their conference opener.

The Hoosiers are 11-3 on the season, with wins over SMU, Pitt, Butler, and Nebraska, and losses to Eastern Washington, Louisville, and Georgetown.  The Indiana offense has been humming along to the tune of the eighth-best efficiency ranking in the country.  They have done a particularly good job of shooting the ball, especially from deep at 40.8% (6^th in the country).  Surprisingly, Indiana has also done well at both offensive rebounding (despite being a short team) and not turning the ball over (despite being one of the worst in the country at it last year).  This turnover rate has gone up a little bit in the last few games, but that also corresponds with an increase in the level of competition.  The IU defense, on the other hand, has struggled this season, ranking just 199^th in adjusted efficiency (which is dead last in the Big Ten).  The one area where the Hoosiers have thrived is in keeping opponents off the free throw line (18^th in the country).  Their worst defensive statistic is forcing turnovers, where they rank 322^nd.

The starting lineup for the Hoosiers has been stable since the second game of the season, and features Yogi Ferrell, Robert Johnson, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea.  While this lineup does tend to be short, it will match up well against the Spartans, who are the only Big Ten team which is shorter than Indiana.  This team has really looked to push the tempo this season, averaging 70.3 possessions per game, which ranks 22^nd in the country and second in the Big Ten.  With that increased tempo, they are averaging 85 points per game, which puts them seventh in the country.

The Matchups:

This is the type of game where Indiana could end up seeing quite a bit of time in man defense, as Michigan State is of a similar height.  That doesn’t mean they won’t play zone at all; they will switch between defenses all game.  So the matchups here will be a bit more important than games against taller opponents.

Ferrell vs Trice.  All three of the true guard matchups for IU need to show improvement on the defensive end, particularly in lateral quickness.  This includes Ferrell, even though he is the best of Indiana’s perimeter defenders.  He once again will take on one of the most important assignments in Trice (although he could also see time on Valentine depending on lineups), who is the leading scorer for the Spartans at almost 14 points per game.  At the same time, he is a phenomenal distributor, dishing off to the tune of almost six assists per game.  He also doesn’t turn the ball over much and doesn’t commit many fouls.  He is a high usage guy (24% of possessions while he’s on the court) but has relatively low shooting percentages (39% field goal, 37% from deep).  Ferrell will have to stick to him well because he’s involved with so much of Michigan State’s scoring.

Johnson vs Valentine.  As the second-best perimeter defender for IU, Johnson draws the second-toughest assignment, taking on Valentine, who also averages almost 14 points per game.  He’s also a good distributor, with around four assists per game to go with almost six rebounds.  He does turn it over quite a bit (almost three turnovers per game), but he’s a high percentage shooter, hitting 46.5% of his shots overall and 46.7% from deep.  He gets to the free throw line pretty well, where he’s hit 23-26 shots on the season.  Johnson will have to play a little bigger than he is, as he’s giving up about two inches to Valentine, but he should be able to guard him decently.

Blackmon Jr. vs Forbes.  As the weakest of the three starting guards when it comes to defense (especially lateral speed), Blackmon Jr. will likely guard Forbes, even if he is about an inch taller.  Forbes is also averaging double-digits on the season at 10 points per game while being a fairly low usage player (around 13% of possessions while he’s on the court).  He compensates for this by hitting a high percentage of his shots (48% from the field, 45% from deep, and 82% from the free throw line).  He’s done a good job this season hanging onto the ball, averaging not even a single turnover per game.  He also doesn’t commit many fouls, but at the same time has not had success drawing them either.  Blackmon Jr. should be able to take advantage of his size to guard Forbes well, but he has really struggled keeping opponents in front of him, something Forbes could exploit.

Williams vs Dawson.  This will be an interesting matchup, as Williams has been surging since the Louisville game at the same time as Dawson has been dealing with a fractured left wrist (on which he is wearing an air cast).  While Williams is about an inch taller than Dawson, the latter has about a 20-pound weight advantage.  Dawson has done well when he’s played, averaging 10.6 points and almost nine rebounds per game.  He’s also dishing off 2 assists compared to 1.7 turnovers and 1.4 steals per game.  Dawson also uses a lot of possessions (26% when he’s on the court) and shoots the ball fairly well at 47% from the field.  He blocks shots at a decent clip and draws fouls well, but he is only 11-28 (39%) from the line.  If Dawson were at full strength I’d likely give this matchup to him, but as he’s not I would venture to say that Williams’ athleticism will cause problems for Dawson to defend.

Mosquera-Perea vs Schilling.  Once again Mosquera-Perea will not be facing up against a particularly big post player, with no Michigan State player coming in taller than 6’9”.  Schilling has been getting the starting big man spot for the Spartans of late, although Costello has gotten several as well and Mosquera-Perea will have to play against both.  Schilling gets around seven points per game to go with 4.5 boards and one block.  He’s hitting 72% from the field but only 42% from the free throw line.  He does commit a lot of fouls, which the Hoosiers could exploit.  If the Mosquera-Perea who has been playing since the Louisville game shows up, he could thrive.  But if the Georgetown Mosquera-Perea shows up it could be a long night.

Key Subs:

Holt vs Costello.  Costello, as has been said, has started several games and could in fact start this one.  Either way, Holt will likely see time against him (and Schilling).  Holt is a bit undersized here, giving up 15-20 pounds, and has had games where he looked great and games where he’s looked lost.  Costello is averaging almost nine points and six rebounds per game to go with about one block per game.  He’s hitting 63.5% of his shots and 76.5% from the line.  He draws fouls well but also commits his fair share of them.  Holt will likely be called on to play a good number of minutes, particularly if Mosquera-Perea gets into foul trouble at any point (which has been more common as he’s played more aggressively), so he could be critical to any Hoosier success.

Hartman vs Clark.  The other key sub for the Spartans is Clark, who contributes seven points and three rebounds per game.  He shoots the ball well from deep (41%) and from the field in general (54%), meaning whoever guards him will need to be able to stay with him anywhere on the court.  Collin Hartman is just the man for the job; he’s a physical body who rebounds exceptionally well and does a decent job at not fouling.  Clark has also turned the ball over at a high rate, something which Hartman could exploit.

Final Thoughts:

Michigan State is always a tough game for the Hoosiers, especially at the Breslin Center.  This year will be no different, as the Spartans are higher ranked per KenPom (23^rd compared to 44^th for the Hoosiers).  Indiana will have to play a nearly flawless game in order to pull off the victory, including hit a lot of threes, limiting Michigan State’s offensive rebounds, and not coming up with many empty possessions.  If they do this, their offense can carry them over just about anybody.  But that’s a big if.

KenPom likes the Spartans by a score of 79-72 with only a 24% chance of a Hoosier victory.  He also predicts 71 possessions, so a bit fast for Michigan State.  The Spartans have yet to play a team which truly excels in a fast-paced game, so a sped up game would likely play to the advantage of the Hoosiers.  As much as I hate to say it, I don’t think the Hoosiers will be able to pull off a second victory at the Breslin Center in the last two-and-a-half decades.  I think Michigan State will too easily be able to drive to the basket, which’ll either result in easy buckets inside or open threes on the perimeter (the Spartans are the best three-point shooting team the Hoosiers have faced yet).  I’ll say the final score will be a bit higher at 82-80 in favor of the Spartans.

That's the Game: Michigan State

What a game!  The Hoosiers pulled out the win 72-68 in the hostile confines of the Breslin Center in East Lansing.  With the Big Ten title and a number one seed in the Tourney on the line, along with a 22-year long 17 game losing streak at Michigan State, on the line, Indiana just kept going and going until the clock ran out.  After some difficulties, that is.  Twice in the final 30 seconds, the clock did not start when the ball was inbounded, slowing the game even further as the refs went to the monitor to figure out what in the world was going on.

Speaking of refs, my goodness was this crew bad!  That's a Ted Valentine game for you.  I could have accepted the somewhat-questionable Flagrant I foul called on Christian Watford on incidental contact against Adreian Payne early in the second half if they had called the same on Derrick Nix when he decided to show his frustrations by intentionally making some below-the-belt contact on Cody Zeller toward the end of the game.  Somehow there was enough evidence to call the first, but not enough evidence to call the second.  If that's the case, maybe these refs need to find a new job that relies less on being able to actually see.

But despite the officiating and intense physicality, the final minute belonged to Victor Oladipo.  First came a tip-in shot off of a Yogi Ferrell miss to put IU up 68-67.  Next came an insanely open dunk out of a sideline-out-of-bounds play to go up 70-67.  To wrap up the game, he collected the rebound off a Gary Harris intentionally missed free throw, was quickly fouled, and made both free throws to seal the game at 72-68.  Victor stepped up every time that Indiana needed him on his way to an individual stat line of 19 points, nine rebounds, five steals, and a block and only one turnover.

The Game:

One of the keys to this game was to hold onto the ball.  The Hoosiers were able to do just that, turning it over 10 times to Michigan State's 12.  Another factor I thought would be key was free throw shooting and the ability to get to the line.  The Hoosiers did pretty poorly at this, getting to the line only 15 times and hitting 10 of them.  The Spartans, on the other hand, made 16-23 free throws.  When it mattered most, however, IU hit their freebies while MSU did not; in the final 1:30 the Spartans hit only 2-6 while the Hoosiers hit 3-3.  Those four free throws could have been the difference in the game.

Aside from a few exceptions, the Indiana defense was very solid.  For the second straight game, they were able to negate Keith Appling completely.  This time, however, he played a team-high 36 minutes but was only able to put up six points (four from the charity stripe), two assists, and another team-high four turnovers.  This was due in most part to the work of both Victor and Yogi, a combination which has caused problems for all sorts of teams.  The Hoosiers also did a pretty good job on Harris, although he did put up 19 points.  In doing so, however, he went only 1-5 from deep after hitting five at Assembly Hall.  The guy who spent a lot of time on Harris was Jordy Hulls, who stuck to him like glue for the most part.

If Indiana's defense was good, it's offense was even better.  Putting up 72 points at Michigan State is no easy task.  One of the more impressive stats to me is that the Hoosiers managed to put up more second chance points (12-8) than MSU despite the fact that the Spartans out-rebounded the Hoosiers 31-28, including 10-8 on the offensive end.  Victor was able to score in just about every conceivable way: driving lay-ups, put-backs, jumpers, and free throws.  And all of this came on an ankle that he admitted was only at about 85%.  Cody was the second-leading scorer for the Hoosiers at 17 points, and he managed to diversify his shot selection from his normal point-blank shots by shooting and hitting a few key mid-range jumpers.  While Christian did not score like he usually does (he missed the first two free throws after a three-point foul), he did put up 12 points, including a huge three-point play the old-fashioned way in the final 1:30.  Jordy also had 12 points and showed just how deep of a range he has by popping a shot from about nine feet beyond the arc.  Although Yogi did not put up a ton of points, he did dish out five of the team's seven assists and was the picture of composure in a very hostile environment, especially considering his status as a freshman.

Final Thoughts:

There were a couple of very important milestones in this game: both Cody and Victor earned their way into the 1,000-point club.  This made it the first time that Indiana has ever had four players in the 1,000-point club at the same time.

This game also had very big implications.  The Hoosiers are now alone at the top of the Big Ten, and are essentially two games up on Michigan State as they have the head-to-head tie-breaker.  This game also went a long way in cementing the Hoosiers as a #1 seed for the NCAA Tourney and could possibly be placed in the incredibly-advantageous Indianapolis regional.

The schedule does not get much easier for the Hoosiers.  They travel to Minnesota next Tuesday, followed by a home-stand against both Iowa and Ohio State, and end the season playing at Michigan.  The Hoosiers are currently 12-2 in the Big Ten and 24-3 on the season.

Hoosier Highlights:

Jordan Hulls: Jordy is now up to 1,261 points in his career, which is good for 29th all-time as he passed up Tom Van Arsdale.  Next up are Steve Green (1,265) and Joby Wright (1,272).

Cody Zeller:  Cody is now at 1,011 points in his career (44th all-time).  Next up is Harry "Butch" Joyner (1,030).

Victor Oladipo:  Victor now has 1,005 points in his career (46th).  Next up (outside of Cody) are Jared Jeffries (1,008) and Harry "Butch" Joyner (1,030).  Victor also has 64 steals on the season as he passed Isiah Thomas to take third place on his own.  Next up is Quinn Buckner in second place (65) and Isiah Thomas again at the top spot (74).  Victor has 147 steals in his career (5th).  Next up are Alan Henderson (148) and Greg Graham (151).

The Game Ahead: Michigan State

Who knows what the score could have been?  The Hoosiers steamrolled the Boilermakers 83-55... and Victor Oladipo didn't play at all in the second half.  After limping to the locker room just before half with a tweaked ankle, Victor took the unusual role of cheerleader for the final 17 minutes (he joined the bench about three minutes into the half).  This was a wise decision by Coach Crean & Co., as Indiana never once lost control of this game.

This dominance, naturally, was done through the standout performance of Victor's fellow-junior buddy Will Sheehey.  There's a reason this duo is nicknamed "Shee-ladipo;" it's hard to pinpoint where one stops and the other begins.  In Victor's absence, Will had a career-high 22 points on the ridiculously efficient, school-record-setting 9-9 from the field, including two three-pointers.  You read that right: school-record-setting 9-9 from the field.  Of all the amazing players to don the candy stripes, names like Calbert Cheaney, Steve Alford, Damon Bailey, and Isiah Thomas come to mind, Will is the only player to hit all nine of his shots in one game.  That's some pretty good company right there.

The remainder of the Hoosier's starting line-up were their usual dominant selves.  Cody Zeller managed to quietly put up 19 points and nine rebounds, and Jordan Hulls scored 11 on 3-6 shooting from deep and chipped in five assists.  Yogi Ferrell, who comes in at maybe 6'0", pulled down six rebounds to go with his five assists.  Christian Watford scored 14 points, including the team's first eight, while effectively shutting down A.J. Hammonds.  And while he only played 14 minutes, Victor did manage to pull down five boards.

Now the road for the Hoosiers gets pretty rough.  They travel to East Lansing to face Michigan State on Tuesday at 7pm on ESPN.  The game will be called by Dick Vitale and Magic Johnson as he returns to his school for his first experience in in-game commentating.

The Teams:

The Hoosiers won the first game at Assembly Hall at the end of January.  Indiana was able to force guard Keith Appling on the bench for 21 minutes, limiting him to three points, no assists, and four turnovers before fouling out.  The odds of that happening again are pretty slim, especially at the Breslin Center.  Another thing that is unlikely to happen again is the Spartans going 11-23 from deep; they average five made three-pointers per game.  Gary Harris hit five threes, and Adreian Payne, who had five made three-pointers in his career going into the game, hit three of them in the game at Assembly Hall.  I also don't see Michigan State going to the line only six times as a team like they did at Assembly Hall.  Cody on his own shot as many free throws as the Spartans as a team.

The Spartans are putting up 70 points per game, and Ken Pomeroy has them in the top 20 offenses in the country and top 15 defenses.  They average about 38 rebounds and 14 assists per game, and are hitting 47% of their field goals.  They also get to the free throw line at a decent rate (more than once for every three field goal attempts).

In contrast, the Hoosiers are the second-highest scoring offense in the country at 83 points per game.  According to the same Ken Pomeroy statistics, Indiana has the top ranked offense and 12th ranked defense.  The Hoosiers are grabbing 39 rebounds and dishing out 15 assists per game, and hit 50% of their field goals (good for 4th in the country).  Indiana gets to the free throw line at an even better rate than Michigan State, almost once for every two field goal attempts.

The Match-ups

These match-ups could be a little different this time around depending upon how Victor's ankle is holding up and how much Coach Crean is willing to push him.  In the first game, Victor was dominant, scoring 21 points, grabbing seven rebounds and six steals, and swatting away three blocks.  One of the keys will be shutting down Harris, who scored 21 in Assembly Hall while not turning it over at all.  There are several different options for guarding Harris depending upon who is in the line-up for both teams.  One option would be to have Vic guard him and take the chance of putting Jordy on Branden Dawson, who is 6'6".  The plus side to that is that Dawson is not particularly dangerous from outside so as long as Jordy could keep Dawson in front of him, this tactic could have some success.  Another option would be to have Jordy stick to Harris like glue.  Harris has been shooting primarily from deep since the first game, and Jordy has been doing a solid job of getting through picks and runs through the post meaning he could do a decent job of both preventing him from getting the ball in position to shoot and from getting the shot off.  Whichever way the Hoosiers go, Harris needs to be contained to keep him from going off for five three-pointers again.

Cody and Christian will have their own battles in the post with Payne and Derrick Nix.  Payne had 18 in the previous match-up, but as previously mentioned he hit an exceedingly uncharacteristic three shots from deep.  He does a decent job of drawing fouls, but he commits them even more, although he was one of only two in the Spartan's starting line-up who wasn't in foul trouble against Indiana the first time around.  Nix does an even better job of drawing fouls, but he can also be coerced into getting himself into foul trouble.  While he has bulk on both Cody and Christian, both of them have an edge in speed, which makes it easier for a guy like Nix to find himself sitting on the bench early with foul trouble.  As mentioned before pretty much every game, Cody is one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls and getting to the line, and this could be especially critical in East Lansing.  What is interesting is that Christian is starting to catch-up to Cody in this category and has now passed up Victor to move to second on the team.  This has come thanks to an increased aggressiveness on Christian's part, something that Hoosier Nation is very excited to see.  If Christian and Cody can keep this up, it could be a long night for the Spartan big men.

It will be interesting to see how Appling rebounds in this game.  The junior has been putting up good numbers since that late January game, but there is always the human element that must be taken into account.  There is the chance that he could come out over-aggressive in trying to prove himself, which could land his butt on the bench if he isn't careful.  There is also the possibility that he comes out hesitantly in an effort to show that his foul trouble and sloppy play were exceptions to the rule, which could make him both softer on defense and less likely to make hard drives to the basket on offense.  Appling, however, is a seasoned veteran of a Tom Izzo squad, and I do not see either of those possibilities actually happen.  I foresee Yogi having his hands full all night, but I also see him holding up to the pressure.

Final Thoughts:

This game is a toss-up.  It could easily go either way.  This has the potential to be one of the best games this season; the Big Ten outright title is on the line and a number one seed in the tourney (particularly the advantageously-located Indianapolis regional) is up for grabs.  If the Hoosiers could win this, it would also be the first time since 1991 that the Hoosiers get a win in East Lansing.

The two biggest factors in this game for both teams are turnovers and free throws.  The Hoosiers and Spartans combined for 34 turnovers, and each team continues to average pretty high turnover rates.  But in a game like this every possession counts, and the team that can hold onto the ball the most will have a big advantage in this contest.  Free throws, especially late, could also be the difference in this game.  The Hoosiers tend to get to the line more frequently and hit a higher percentage on those shots, but the hostile environment of the Breslin Center could make anything possible.

Hoosier Highlights:

Jordan Hulls - Jordy's 11 points against Purdue put him at 1,249 in his career, passing up Dick Van Arsdale.  Next on the list is twin brother Tom Van Arsdale with 1,252 points.

Cody Zeller - Cody is now up to 994 points in his career, six away from 1,000.

Victor Oladipo - Victor has 986 points in his career, 14 away from the 1,000-point club.  He also has 59 steals on the season (4th all-time for the Hoosiers), and is three steals away from joining Isiah Thomas in third.  Victor also has 142 steals in his career (5th place) and needs six steals to join Alan Henderson in fourth place.

Image from iuhoosiers.com