That's the Game: Maryland

There’s that Indiana offense we’d been missing in Big Ten play!  And then some!  The #23 Hoosiers whomped the #13 Maryland Terps 89-70.  Of course, this makes the Big Ten all the more confusing (and fun), but the Hoosiers now find themselves tied with Wisconsin atop the conference.

Indiana jumped out to a quick lead, in large part thanks to Collin Hartman, who had seven points in the first two minutes of the game.  Maryland would work their way back to tie the game at 26 with about seven minutes to go in the half, but they would go into the half trailing the Hoosiers by three.  That, however, was the closest the Terps would come the rest of the night, as the Hoosiers sprinted ahead to start the second half and never looked back.  Indiana hit 9-11 second-half threes (that’s almost 82%!), cementing the biggest victory of the season so far for Tom Crean and the Hoosiers.

The Good (and boy was it good):

• Play of the Starters.  Man were they electric!  They did pretty much whatever they wanted whenever they wanted to do it.  Yogi Ferrell led all scorers with 24 points, James Blackmon Jr. poured in 22 of his own to go with five rebounds, Troy Williams had 16 points and seven rebounds, and Collin Hartman scored a career-high 15 points.  Rob Johnson scored only seven points, but also had six boards.  This group also played almost 18 minutes together, an oddity for an Indiana team that likes to play fast.

• Collin Hartman.  I want t pull Hartman out for some special attention.  I’m sure when he committed to Indiana he never imagined playing center, but that’s where he finds himself a third of the way through Big Ten play.  And he’s succeeding!  Take last night.  He scored 15 points on only four field goals, going perfect from the field with only a lone missed free throw.  He also had an assist, three blocks, and a steal.  He’s actually a matchup nightmare for many opposing teams, as their big men have to try to honor him at the perimeter (he’s 15-30 from there on the season, 6-10 during conference play).  And on the defensive end, where he’s always going to be undersized?  Hartman is thriving there too.  In the last two games he’s helped to hold five different big men to eight total points and 10 total rebounds, and that’s with Marylnad’s Jon Graham having six of each.  In conference play, he’s surprisingly one of the top-10 blockers in the Big Ten… at 6’7”.  To say Hartman is playing well is an understatement, and his work earned him “Coll-in Hart-man” chants from the Assembly Hall faithful on two occasions, something I never imagined would happen coming into the season.

• The Shooting.  All of It.  By Everyone.  The Hoosiers shot 60% from the field, 68% from deep, and 78% from the line.  Ferrell was on fire (and that may be an understatement as well), hitting 7-8 from the perimeter.  Many of those were contested, too.  Hartman hit all three of his deep shots, Blackmon Jr. was 3-5, Max Hoetzel was perfect in his one attempt, and Johnson was 1-3.  That’s 15 made three-pointers on the night against the best perimeter defense in the conference and one of the best in the country.  I don’t care much about what your defense is like, if you come out and shoot like the Hoosiers did last night, you can beat just abut anybody.

• Ferrell’s Leadership.  A lot will be said about Ferrell’s shooting, but his leadership was just as important.  He had five assists and not a single turnover in 37 minutes played.  He spent the night making Maryland freshman Melo Trimble look like the freshman he is, something most opponents have not been able to do.  He also frustrated some of the bigger Terps on defense, preventing the ball from even entering the post.  Ferrell is a level head who really knows his team and does exactly what’s needed for his team to win.  And really, that’s what you really want most out of your veteran point guard.

• Defensive Free Throw Rate.  Unlike most of the teams that Maryland has faced, the Hoosiers were able to keep the Terps off the free throw line.  Before the game, I had this as the determining factor for Indiana to win.  Maryland is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line, while the Hoosiers are one of the best in the country at keeping opponents off the line, so something had to give.  And it wasn’t the Hoosiers.  Of particular importance was keeping Trimble off the line, as he came into the contest shooting an average of seven free throws per game.  Against Indiana?  He took only one free throw, and missed it.  As a whole, the Terps were 6-12 from the line, which is really low both in number taken and number made.  In fact, Indiana hit more free throws (14) than the Terps attempted, which was a huge part of Hoosiers’ success.

• All Gas, No Brakes.  Unlike the last few games, Indiana started both halves well.  Also unlike many of the Big Ten games, the Hoosiers never really let up and didn’t let their opponent go on big runs (like what happened at Illinois).  Once the second half started, Maryland was never really in the game.  Now, as an Indiana fan I’ll be completely honest and say that I wasn’t comfortable until the lead was 19 with about a minute and a half to go (and the student section was singing a particularly synchronized rendition of “Na Na Na Na Hey Hey-ey Goodbye”), but the Hoosiers showed the killer instinct they’d lacked much of the season, a welcome change this far into the conference season.

The Not-So-Good (what little there was of it):

• Defending the perimeter.  The only thing I could remotely come up with as a negative from the game was the fact that Indiana gave up entirely too many threes, several of them largely open.  The big problem was sticking with freshman Jared Nickens, who is the designated sharpshooter, the guy who has taken about four times as many threes as he has twos.  He hit 4-7 from deep, helping the Terps go 10-20 for 50% from the perimeter.  This is way above their average of 37%, and is also far beyond the Indiana defensive average of 30%.  But a solid job defending the post and the defensive ability to force Maryland to settle for midrange jumpers (matched with IU making 15 threes of their own) helped to mitigate the effects of the Terps’ good shooting.

The Final Word:

Huge.  That sums up the results of this game, one which was admittedly not a must-win for the Hoosiers (which I would not have guessed even just two weeks ago).  Indiana now sits at the top of the Big Ten after being picked to finish around ninth or tenth in the preseason.  The problems of the offseason are now a distant memory.  The projections had IU starting conference play at 2-4 at best, possibly even 1-5, but here the Hosiers are at 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Michigan State at the Breslin Center (a place where Indiana has even worse luck than in Champaign).  But the schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Hoosiers for a while, with trips to Ohio State and Purdue, hosting Rutgers, traveling to Wisconsin, hosting Michigan, and returning a trip to Maryland.  Indiana is currently projected to go 2-4 over this stretch (wins over Rutgers and Michigan), so let’s see if they can continue to buck expectations and shock the conference and the country.

**Noteworthy News**

With 24 points, Yogi Ferrell surged ahead of Daryl Thomas, Bobby “Slick” Leonard, Joe Cooke, Vernon Payne, and Marshal Strickland to join Victor Oladipo in a tie at 38^th in career points at 1,117.  With seven made three-pointers, he also now moves into 10^th place in career threes (153), and is now chasing Christian Watford at ninth with 164.  Five assists on the night also moved him into 11^th in career assists (367), surpassing Jordan Hulls, and he can move into the top 10 by joining Steve Alford at 385.

Up Next:

As mentioned, the Hoosiers travel to Columbus for a rematch with the Buckeyes, who Indiana defeated by a score of 69-66 just 13 days ago.  Columbus is always a tough place to play (as is any other road venue in the Big Ten).  The Hoosiers have won their three times since the 2001-2002 season, which is better than several other venues (think Michigan State and Illinois), but many of the losses came by somewhere around 20 points while only three of the losses were decided by single-digits.  This game will be played at 1:30pm on Sunday January 25, and will be shown nationally on CBS.

The Game Ahead: Maryland

Tomorrow night (January 22) at the ridiculously late tip time of 9pm the #23 Indiana Hoosiers play host to the #13 Maryland Terrapins (also known as the “Terps”).  This top-25 showdown is actually a fight for at least a share of first place in the Big Ten, as Maryland (and Wisconsin) are at the top of the conference at 5-1 and Indiana (and Michigan) are tied a half game back (Indiana has a record of 4-1 while Michigan has a record of 5-2).

If you're a believer in the transitive property (Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, so Team A should also beat Team C), good luck figuring out this game.  Maryland’s one loss of the season came at Illinois by a score of 64-57.  Indiana, on the other hand, beat Illinois in Champaign by a score of 80-74 (without starting center Hanner Mosquera-Perea).  Indiana’s one loss came at Michigan State with a score of 70-50.  Maryland, on the other hand, has now defeated MSU twice, 68-66 in double overtime at MSU and 75-59 at home.  To recap: Indiana beat Illinois (in Champaign), who beat Maryland (in Champaign), who beat Michigan State (twice), who beat Indiana (badly).  Isn’t the Big Ten fun?

The Teams:

Maryland comes into the game at 17-2 and 5-1 in Big Ten play.  Their big non-conference win came against Iowa State at a neutral site, although a win against Oklahoma State is impressive as well.  Their two losses came at Illinois and versus still-undefeated Virginia.

Defense has been the highlight for the Terps, where they rank 16^th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom.  They are particularly good at defending against the three (giving up only 28% from deep) and at not sending opponents to the free throw line (defensive free throw rate of 26%, good for 11^th in the country).  With free throw rate, it’s interesting to note that while they thrived at not sending teams to the line in the nonconference, it’s been a different story in Big Ten play (33.2%, good for 8^th in the conference).  They are moderate at keeping opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds and are actually almost as bad as Indiana at forcing turnovers (defensive turnover percentage of 17.6, good for 282^nd).

Maryland’s offense has also been fairly impressive this season, ranked 36^th overall.  They are exceptional at getting to the free throw line with a rate of 49%, good for ninth in the country.  Pair with this the fact that they hit more than 75% of their free throws, and you’ve got a dangerous situation.  They are also a good perimeter shooting team, hitting 37% of their shots from there.  In both the categories of turnovers and offensive rebounds, the Terps are mediocre, and have actually done worse in both since the start of Big Ten play.

The Terps have seen a bit of variation in their starting lineup during conference play, but also have a strong rotation that goes at least 10 deep.  Several guys are locks to be starters when they’re healthy, including senior Dez Wells, junior Jake Layman, and freshman Melo Trimble.  Fellow freshman Jared Nickens has also recently gotten the starting nod over senior Richaud Pack.  Beyond that though, there’s a little more question as to who the fifth starter would be.  My guess is sophomore big man Damonte Dodd, who has started 17 of 19 games.

The Hoosiers have had strength this season on the offensive end, ranked 13^th overall.  While some of their offensive stats have dropped just a bit since the start of conference play, they are still formidable because of the multitude of threats.  IU has been a good shooting team, with a field goal percentage around 55% and a three-point percentage at almost 40%.  They have also been surprisingly good at grabbing offensive rebounds (they are actually third in the conference at doing so) and at holding onto the ball (they’ve lowered their turnovers by five percent from last season).  They do a decent job of getting to the free throw line and hit a good number of shots once they get there.

Defense, on the other hand, has been an issue for Indiana.  The one area at which they have absolutely excelled is at not sending opponents to the free throw line, coming in just behind Maryland in the category (although the Hoosiers have remained constant so far in the Big Ten where Maryland has not).  Indiana also has done a decent job at defending the perimeter, and in conference play are actually the second-best team in the category.  The two areas where the Hoosiers absolutely struggle are preventing offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers.  In the case of the former, Indiana has improved their rate by 1.5% in conference play, and that’s after giving up a 50% offensive rebounding rate to Michigan State (and without Mosquera-Perea for two games).   Without that anomaly, the Hoosiers move into the top half of the conference.

The Hoosiers have had a fairly consistent starting lineup, with only three variations so far this season.  The most recent variation (brought about by Mosquera-Perea’s knee injury) has seen sophomore Collin Hartman grab the starting center spot (as a related note, he never even played at center until this year).  Joining him in the semi-frontcourt is fellow sophomore Troy Williams, who has been mostly impressive in the Big Ten.  Indiana features a guard-heavy lineup of junior Yogi Ferrell, and freshmen Robert Johnson and James Blackmon Jr.

The Lineup:

Melo Trimble (#2) 6’3” Freshman:  This freshman phenom has been the driving force for this surprising Maryland squad.   He’s leading the team with about 16 points per game while also contributing four rebounds, three assists, and 1.4 steals to go with 43% shooting overall (38% from deep).  He also leads the team in free throws, having already shot 138 this season.  He does tend to turn the ball over, but IU has not shown any penchant for forcing them.  The key to guarding Trimble is to force him to the left, as can be seen in the chart below (courtesy of Shot Analytics).  Ironically, he actually likes to shoot threes from the left-hand side, with those shots accounting for over 20% of the shots he takes.  He also really likes the middle three, where he shoots 18% of his shots and makes 47% of them.

Dez Wells (#44) 6’5” Senior:  The senior, who missed around four weeks with an injured wrist early in the season, is averaging almost 14 points and five rebounds per game, along with over three assists and 1.4 steals.  He also turns the ball over three times per game.  He’s hitting a ridiculous 50% from deep (12-24), but, in contrast to his freshman teammate, thrives on the left side of the court.  He also draws fouls well, and hits almost 80% from the line.    The key for whoever is guarding Wells will be to force him toward the baseline for the midrange shot, where he hits under a quarter of his shots.

Jake Layman (#10) 6’9” Junior:  Layman is the third Terp averaging double-digit points, scoring almost 15 per game to go with seven boards and 1.5 assists.  Despite his height, he is also a good shooter, fitting 51% from the field and almost 40% from deep.  Many of his rebounds come on the defensive end of the court.  Layman is second only to Trimble in the number of free throws he’s shot (107), and he also hits 75% of his freebies.  The sport where defenders will need to watch for him is the right wing three-pointer, which accounts for 12% of his total shots and from where he hits 42%.  Unlike many of his teammates, Layman hits his midrange shots, which could be particularly dangerous when (not if) the Hoosiers break out the zone defense.

Jared Nickens (#11) 6’7” Freshman:  The freshman has not started every game, but has found ways to contribute regardless.  He’s scoring almost seven points per game while grabbing 1.3 boards.  He also shoots well (around 40% both from the field and from deep), but doesn’t draw fouls or get to the line like some of the other Terps.  At the same time, however, he doesn’t commit many fouls of his own.  Out of any of the starters, Nickens is the designated shooter, as he’s taken almost four times as many threes as he has two-pointers (he’s actually made 11 more threes than he’s even attempted twos).  He really likes both corners, which account for 38% of his total shots, and he’s deadly from there as well, hitting 50% from the left and 60% from the right.  He likes the wings as well, although he is quite a bit less accurate from there (33% from the left wing and 20% from the right).  On the rare occasion where he does drive (at least when he takes the baseline jumper), it often comes from the right-hand corner.

Damonte Dodd (#35) 6’11” Sophomore:  Out of the starters, Dodd is the only one who is not a threat to shoot from the perimeter (as you could probably guess).  He is however, deadly from the paint, where he takes over 80 percent of his shots.  He averages almost five points and five rebounds per game to go along with almost two blocks.  He gets to the free throw line well, but he commits a lot of fouls as well (over six per 40 minutes).  For Indiana, Hartman and freshman Emmitt Holt will really have some work to do in the post to defend him.

Key Subs:

Richaud Pack (#20) 6’4” Senior:  Pack has started several games for the Terps, and still average a large number of minutes off the bench.  He scores almost eight points and four rebounds per game, and hits 42% from the field and 32% from deep.  He’s mediocre at drawing fouls, but he doesn’t commit many either.  His top shot is the left corner, where he shoots 10% of his shots, hitting 60%.  He is not much of a midrange shooter, and at the perimeter is weakest from the left wing (hitting only 11%).

Dion Wiley (#5) 6’4” Freshman:  The freshman’s biggest offensive contribution for Maryland is scoring almost six points per game, hitting 42% from the field and 37.5% from the perimeter.  He turns the ball over at a high rate, but he offsets this by not committing many fouls.  From three-point land, he likes the wings (29% of his shots, hits 33% from the right and 56% from the left) and corners (19% of his shots, hits 60% from the right and 36% from the left), so the game plan should be to force him to the middle.

Evan Smotrycz (#1) 6’9” Senior:  The Michigan transfer has had a solid season off the bench, averaging five points and five rebounds per game, and he’s actually taken about as many twos as he has threes (where he’s making only 21% of his shots).  He’s a good defensive rebounder, but he turns the ball over quite a bit.  From the perimeter, defenders should watch for the right wing, where he hits 40% of his shots.

Michal Cekovsky (#15) 7’1” Freshman:  The only reason I’m even mentioning Cekovsky is because he is really tall and Indiana really isn’t.  He’s a sporadic contributor who rebounds and blocks fairly well, but turns the ball over a lot and commits fouls even more.  He shoots predominantly from point blank and has yet to attempt a perimeter shot.

Final Thoughts:

The key for the Hoosiers in this game will be keeping Maryland off the free throw line.  In fact, against Illinois the Terps were held 15% below their average free throw rate and 11% below their offensive rebounding percentage.  As a whole, the Hoosiers will have to force Maryland into midrange jumpers and try to keep them away from the corner threes, where they absolutely thrive.  What should be interesting to see is how the tempo works out.  On the season, Indiana is the second-fastest team in the Big Ten at almost 69 possessions per game.  And even though they have slowed down a bit in conference play (66 possessions), they still rank second.  Maryland, on the other hand, is more of a conundrum, averaging only 65 possessions over the full season (good for 10^th in the Big Ten), but have raised that to just over 66 possessions during conference play, which puts them first in the conference.  Overall, a fast pace has favored the Hoosiers this season, so it’ll be interesting to see which still Maryland decides to play.

All told, Indiana is considered something of an underdog tomorrow night, even though the game is in Assembly Hall.  Ken Pomeroy likes the Terps by a score of 74-73 with a 44% chance of a Hoosier victory, and Sagarin, when accounting for the home court advantage, has the game as even.  The Vegas line opened also favoring Maryland by a single point.  This is an excellent opportunity for the Hoosiers to get something of a signature win this season, and Indiana has the tendency to perform well against ranked teams at Assembly Hall (which should be packed and rocking, if a smidge intoxicated thanks to the super late start on “Thirsty Thursday).  I’m going to put the score at 78-73 for an Indiana victory.  But if Maryland gets to the line at the rate to which they’re accustomed, all bets are off.