The Game Ahead: Butler

The Hoosiers once again face the #23 Butler Bulldogs in the annual Crossroads Classic featuring the four premiere basketball programs in the state with Indiana, Butler, Purdue, and Notre Dame.  The game is at 2:30pm on FoxSports 1 and will be played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.  The last time these two squared off in the Classic saw Butler knock off then #1 Indiana by an overtime score of 88-86 on a last-second jumper by then-walk-on Alex Barlow.

The Teams:

The Butler Bulldogs are 8-2 on the season, with wins over Georgetown and UNC and losses to Oklahoma and Tennessee.  They have thrived so far this season on the defensive end (17^th in the country per KenPom) while playing mediocre offense (104^th in the country in the same ranking).  So far, they have excelled at forcing turnovers (on almost a quarter of opponents’ possessions) and guarding the perimeter (with opponents shooting only 26% from deep), with a high offensive free throw rate (getting to the line at a 44% rate) and low turnover rate (coughing it up on 18% of possessions) to go along with them.  It should be noted on the three-point defense that Butler has not faced a team ranked higher than 153^rd in three-point shooting, whereas the Hoosiers come in as the 11^th-best perimeter shooting team.

The Bulldogs, much like the Hoosiers, feature a lineup that is backcourt-heavy with some question marks in the paint.  They are paced by junior guard Kellan Dunham, who is scoring 16 points per game while hitting 45% of his shots from deep and 87% of the many free throws he’s able to earn by drawing fouls.  Rounding out the double-digit scorers are freshman sixth-man Kelan Martin and fellow guard Roosevelt Jones, each scoring almost 11 points each.  The final two starters, 6’7” sophomore Andrew Chrabascz and 6’9” senior Kameron Woods are each averaging around eight points per game.  I should also note that the Butler bench features former Hoosiers Austin Etherington, who is playing an average of 14 minutes per game while contributing four points.  The Bulldog bench is shorter than the Hoosiers’, with eight players playing at least 10 minutes per game.

The Hoosiers are also 8-2 on the season, with wins over SMU and Pitt and losses to Eastern Washington and Louisville.  Where the Bulldogs have lived off of their defensive success, the Hoosiers are living off of their offense, ranked ninth in the country per KenPom.  Also where Butler is shaky on the offensive end, Indiana has struggled so far defensively (ranked 192^nd).  The Hoosiers have been surviving on their shooting so far, hitting 42% of their deep shots as a team.  They have also significantly improved in holding onto the ball, turning it over on only 17% of their possessions (down from 22% last season), even after turning it over 19 times against Louisville.  Surprisingly, Indiana is rebounding almost 38% of its misses, good for 35^th in the country.  At the same time, however, they are allowing opponents to rebound 35% of misses (coming in at 274^th in the country).  The Hoosier defense has done a great job of keeping opponents off the free throw line (13^th best in the country).

The Hoosier starting lineup has remained constant after swapping Troy Williams for Nick Zeisloft.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. leads the team in scoring at 19 points per game, followed by senior Yogi Ferrell at 16, Williams at 12, and fellow freshman Rob Johnson at 10.  Blackmon Jr. also leads the team in rebounds with 5 per game (along with Williams) and is hitting 46% of his perimeter shots (and that’s after going 2-13 in his last two games).  Interestingly, he is also in the top five percent in the country at not committing fouls, even while averaging 30 minutes per game.  Ferrell is contributing over five assists per game, while Johnson is adding three of his own.  The final starter for the Hoosiers, 6’9” Hanner Mosquera-Perea, is averaging eight points and four rebounds per game after showing some improvement the last few games.  The Hoosiers have a slew of reserves, including Zeisloft, sophomore Collin Hartman, and freshman Emmitt Holt, who have provided significant contributions from the bench, and nine Hoosiers see the floor for at least 10 minutes with one more averaging nine and a half minutes.

The Matchups:

The Hoosiers have shown a bit of a propensity lately to spend more time in a 2-3 zone, but for the sake of comparison here’s to assuming that at least a fair bit of man-to-man will be played.

The Bulldogs’ most dangerous scorer is easily Dunham, who is listed as a guard while standing 6’6”.  This, paired with two other taller teammates, creates a bit of a matchup nightmare for the Hoosiers.  The best defender in Ferrell is probably too short at 6’0” (maybe) to guard Dunham full time, so the best bet will probably be a combination of Johnson with some help from the taller Williams.  Johnson has done a decent job at not fouling, which will be key against a guy like Dunham who is very good at drawing them.  Really, it’ll be Johnson’s job to stick to him like glue around the perimeter while Williams and even Mosquera-Perea help if he drives around Johnson.  It’s important to note that Dunham really likes to shoot from deep in the right corner, an area which Indiana has had difficulty guarding in their 2-3 zone.

The rest of the backcourt matchups could be interesting.  On the defensive end for Indiana, I would expect to see Ferrell go against Jones primarily while Blackmon Jr. covers Barlow, even though this is counterintuitive, as the former is 6’4” while the latter is only 5’11”.  The problem, however, comes in the physicality and skill of Jones.  Ferrell is easily the most physical defender of the Indiana starters and Blackmon Jr., well, his offensive power balances out his weaker defense (understandable for a freshman).  Barlow is much less of a threat than Jones, and Ferrell has proven his ability to guard players taller than himself, making this setup the best for the Hoosiers.  On the other end of the court, I would expect the Bulldogs to play the more typical matchup of Barlow on Ferrell and Jones on Blackmon Jr.  Barlow is a pest on defense, averaging more than two steals per game, making a matchup with Ferrell more advantageous.

The frontcourt matchups are likely not as interesting in this game, as both teams are guard-heavy.  In all honesty, these matchups may tip more toward the Hoosiers, something I wouldn’t have expected to say.  Woods for Butler is a solid rebounder, particularly on the defensive end, but his offense is average for a player of his size.  Mosquera-Perea for the Hoosiers has had difficulty on the boards this season, with two guards and a forward rebounding at least as well as he is.  At the same time, his offensive game has looked much more polished of late, showing moves that Hoosier fans had yet to see from him.  If he can make a decent effort at blocking out (even if that just means that he clears out the paint for teammates to get the board), this could be a turning-point time game for the Hoosier big man.  The final matchup leaves Williams guarding Chrabascz (whose name I have given up trying to pronounce!).  This, too, I would tip toward the Hoosier, as Chrabascz is particularly inefficient on offense and Williams is particularly explosive on offense.  This also allows Williams to sag off of his man a bit to help protect the paint, especially against a guy like Dunham, hopefully taking a bit of the pressure off of the perimeter defenders.

The sixth-man matchup could also be interesting, as Martin for the Bulldogs averages 11 points in only 16 minutes per game.  He is another physical player, and is more of a threat inside than he is from the perimeter (hitting 33% from deep).  Depending on who he comes in for and who is on the court for the Hoosiers, there are several options for guarding him.  Out of the starters, Williams would likely get the job, provided that Martin comes in for Chrabascz and not Woods.  Another guy who could find success guarding Martin would be Hartman off the bench, who is tall enough and physical enough to take him.

Final Thoughts:

This game will really be about which comes out stronger, the Hoosier offense or the Butler defense.  Now, this is the same Indiana team which put of 74 points against the Louisville defense, the top-ranked defense in the country who gave up an average of 49 points coming into that game.  And that was while turning it over 19 times.  If the Hoosiers can cut down on those while running their regular offense, the Butler defense could be in for a level of offense they have yet to see this season.  At the same time, the Indiana defense needs to step up more than it did against Louisville, who was mostly able to drive at will while rebounding over half of its misses.  If that IU defense shows up, Butler could have an offensive night the likes of which they haven’t seen except against Maine and Kennesaw State.

KenPom predicts the Bulldogs to win by a score of 71-69 with a 43% of the Hoosiers pulling off the upset.  I’m going to predict that the Indiana three-point shooting overcomes the Butler defense and that IU changes the recent trend of struggling in the Crossroads Classic by winning by a score of 73-70.

**Noteworthy News**

With 983 points in his career, Ferrell is only 17 points away from becoming the sixth Hoosier of the Tom Crean Era to reach the 1,000 point mark (joining Verdell Jones III, Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, and Cody Zeller).  He has also extended his IU-record of consecutive games with a made 3-pointer to 41 games (AJ Guyton previously had the record at 33 straight).

Ferrell also has 326 assists in his career, putting him in 16th place all-time at Indiana.  He needs six more to move into 15th with Brian Evans and another four to move into 14th place with Butch Carter.